1) IONA
2) OREGON
3) COLORADO
4) WISCONSIN
5) N. ARIZONA
6) ARKANSAS
7) OK STATE
8) PORTLAND
9) NC STATE
9) UTEP
10) STANFORD
This is Iona's year to win it all. It will never happen again. They have the pieces, they have more than five of them and they have them rested. Yes, Oregon has more depth 3-9 but it wont matter who has the best 8 and 9 men. Iona has 6 guys who can place in the top 50 and five who can run in the top 30. A close race but this is Iona's year.
I thought that Iona only had four guys, not five.
26mi235 wrote:
I thought that Iona only had four guys, not five.
They've got 5, but the five is about as impressive as Taking Oregon's every other man down the line if you start by skipping Rupp.
Seriously, if you split Rupp and Kiptoo and went down the line to add 4 more on each side BOTH teams could give Iona a run for the money. Once you combine them and send out 5 phenomenal guys all trying for those last couple spots you are a DANGEROUS team.
Goodnight Susan. I already have a copy of whoever was selling that Oregon wins book.
Whoever thinks Iona has this in the bag is praying to all the gods.
It comes down to how they run the race, not how good the credentials look. If Oregon's runners were building resumes, they would win, hands down, but that's not the whole story at the national meet. If they keep their composure and run to their potential, they should win. History would say that this is not likely. The iffy thing about CU is Janson. If he is truly over-cooked, then they are in trouble. If he can rebound and run closer to where he's been before Regionals, they will be tough. Anything can happen and the team that keeps its cool, sticks to its plan, and is peaked, will win.
Rupp will win it all. You can print that in black and white as well.
top 3
Oregon
Wisconsin
Colorado
A fast race will help the studs like Lomong, McDougal, Rupp, etc. but will hurt the 2-7 runners on MOST teams (maybe not deep teams like Oregon and Iona). If the race starts very fast, a lot of guys will go out over their heads and not be able to hold the quick pace. By mile four they will be falling back, just as Colorado is moving up. The fact that CU doesn't have any individual national title contenders will only help them as their top three will be able to feed off each other while moving up through the pack. I'm not convinced they have the talent to take it all this year, but if I've learned one thing over the last few years, it's not to count out Wetmore's team at the big dance. This race won't be the cakewalk Oregon fans think it will be.
shaking my head wrote:
A fast race will help the studs like Lomong, McDougal, Rupp, etc. but will hurt the 2-7 runners on MOST teams (maybe not deep teams like Oregon and Iona). If the race starts very fast, a lot of guys will go out over their heads and not be able to hold the quick pace. By mile four they will be falling back, just as Colorado is moving up. The fact that CU doesn't have any individual national title contenders will only help them as their top three will be able to feed off each other while moving up through the pack. I'm not convinced they have the talent to take it all this year, but if I've learned one thing over the last few years, it's not to count out Wetmore's team at the big dance. This race won't be the cakewalk Oregon fans think it will be.
That's true. It will be a very interesting race, no doubt.
Just thought that initially I would point out that trying to decided NC's by looking at people's 5k best time is a very silly thing to do.
Case in point - Andrew Ledwith ran NC's last year off about a month running and finished about 50th. To count out his chances cause of a lack of a 5k time under 14 is just silly.
I think this year is one of the most difficult to predict for a number of years. I think both Oregon and Colarado will have their top 2 runners finishing fairly high up and we all know Colarado is the best team over the last 2k.
I do think that whilst IOna might not have anyone in the top 10 they certainly have a chance to put all 5 runners in the top 30. Not sure if that will be enough if Colarado have 2 in teh top 10 though.
Also - think Wisconsin could surprise some people as well.