Armstrong clean at 2009 tour

Cycling guy wrote:

Armstrong wasn't very well prepared yesterday.

He pointed out that doping became more and more difficult around 2005 because the Bio Passport works so damn well.

And in 2009/2010 his Bio Passport data proves doping with an error of margin of less than 1 in a million, according to the USADA.

There are some good charts on the internet. They had his data from the Giro where his Hct goes down during the 3 weeks and during the tour, there are sudden spikes.

So, in other words, he didn't get any EPO or blood transfusion during his preparation in Italy (GIRO) but during the Tour, he did.

Reason for this may be that Italy has one of the strictest anti doping laws. No kidding.

This is what made me immediately think that Armstrong was lying about 2009 and 2010 (other than all of his other lies). He points out that the bio passport works really well, then has no explanation for his bio passport data indicating doping. It can't be both. Either the bio passport works really well, and he doped; or, the bio passport was wrong, and he didn't dope.

This is what made me immediately think that Armstrong was lying about 2009 and 2010 (other than all of his other lies). He points out that the bio passport works really well, then has no explanation for his bio passport data indicating doping. It can't be both. Either the bio passport works really well, and he doped; or, the bio passport was wrong, and he didn't dope.

f*ck me, i was so pissed when oprah didn't press him on that. it was so obvious!

You cannot just look at the Hct values. Most of these samples were probably taken post race. You would have to compare the hct values to the plasma values. When blood plasma declines from exertion, training, or dehydration you will still see an elevated hct. I'm not defending Lance, I do think he doped in 2009/2010 I am simply saying you cannot just look at hct values. You would have to look at them in comparison to time the sample was taken, plama levels, hct and many other values. The blood passport works in theory but there are many problems with it because it is not always getting samples that can be used to compare against other samples. There are too many variables in the system and many times it does not factor them in or at times over-estimates the possible changes in blood values.

lies wrote:

You cannot just look at the Hct values. Most of these samples were probably taken post race. You would have to compare the hct values to the plasma values. When blood plasma declines from exertion, training, or dehydration you will still see an elevated hct. I'm not defending Lance, I do think he doped in 2009/2010 I am simply saying you cannot just look at hct values. You would have to look at them in comparison to time the sample was taken, plama levels, hct and many other values. The blood passport works in theory but there are many problems with it because it is not always getting samples that can be used to compare against other samples. There are too many variables in the system and many times it does not factor them in or at times over-estimates the possible changes in blood values.

i'm sure all of that is true. i think the issue here is more that lance claimed that he wasn't doping during his comeback (and that the bio passport results weren't conclusive) when earlier in the interview he said that the bio passport was really effective and strongly discouraged doping.

lol lol lol lol wrote:

the CEO of USADA, who is the PERSON WHO COULD REDUCE HIS BAN TO 8 YEARS

This is not true. The USADA can give a recommendation to the WADA to reduce the ban, it would be up to the WADA to decide.

The outcome would be the same.

Tygart is not going to reduce the ban unless he delivers names - Verburggen, McQuaid, Brynell....

lies wrote:

You cannot just look at the Hct values. . . .

That's not what they're looking at:

At USADA’s request, these blood test results were examined by Professor Christopher J. Gore, Head of Physiology at the Australian Institute of Sport. Prof. Gore observed that a cluster of five Armstrong samples during the 2009 Tour de France and his two samples during the 2010 Tour de France contained an unusually low percentage of reticulocytes.

Reticulocytes are immature red blood cells created naturally by the body. When an athlete adds additional red blood cells to his circulation by transfusing his own stored blood, the body’s production of reticulocytes is suppressed. This is reflected by a decrease in the athlete’s

reticulocyte percentage. When Prof. Gore compared the suppressed reticulocyte percentage in Armstrong’s 2009 and 2010 Tour de France samples to the reticulocyte percentage in his other samples, Prof. Gore concluded that the approximate likelihood of Armstrong’s seven suppressed reticulocyte values during the 2009 and 2010 Tours de France occurring naturally was less than one in a million.

Citizen Runner wrote:

that's not what they're looking at:

I was not saying that the passport only looks at Hct values. I know that it does not. I am very familiar with the passport and all that it involves and measures and monitors. I was saying to the poster that referenced changing hct spikes during the tour as evidence of doping when they would not be clear evidence. Hct does decrease with hard training but it does not make huge drops and you do not see these drops immediately after a training session or race. You see the drops days later. Immediately after a training session or race you will get a very increased hct reading because of the loss of fluids during the effort. A marathoner who goes into a race with a 45 hct will have a post effort hct of around 52-55.

In order to make a inference by the hct levels alone the sample would have to be taken at the same time each day and before any exercise was completed. Even after waking and moving around you will see a 2 to 3 point drop in hct. Because of this one cannot make certain Lance was doping just because of hct spike.

A greatly increased percentage of reticulocytes as you mentioned would be a pretty good indication of foul play either by epo administration or by transfusion of blood that was taken a few days after a few epo injections.