Current odds of US distance medal ... 85%

Youre an onvious troll but ill bite.... that wouldnt make sense to add up all the chances.. say u flip a coin twice. The odds of heads on the first flip is fifty percent as well as the second one... by ur logic there is a 100 prrcrnt chance ull get heads at least once. So i hope u dont bet much because u need a course in probability 101. Alsoiapologize this is ped off a tablet and i was gonna give oddsbelow but messed up and cant scroll... 800 6.25% 1500 10% steeple 1% 5k 20% 10k 20% mar 1%... if i did this math right i give it just umder 50% chance of happening

1500 10/1 10%

steeple

If would take not too much time, can you explain your math. This is interesting. Thanks.

darius gaiden wrote:

so, that means that the US has a 200% chance of winning a medal!!!

I think you are interpreting this wrong. I think if those are your odds(equally 200%), it would predict that US would likely win TWO medals. The final answer is not 200%, but 2. If the percentages added up to 62, or as we have been saying 62%, then we can likely expect .62 medals.

br

cenotaph wrote:

is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?

no we have 4 medals since montreal

800m

earl jones bronze 84

Johnny gray bronze 92

3000m steeple

brian diemer bronze 84

marathon

Meb silver 2004

cenotaph wrote:

hes not american

Meb is as American as they come. He immigrated here as a child to escape political persecution in his home country. He attended Junior High, High School and College here. He is the American Dream-and American runners should embrace him. For anyone who descended from immigrants-his experience is the same as your ancestors'. He didn't grow up somewhere else, come to college here, and then naturalize to compete on the Olympic team-but with his family sought the freedom that only the United States offers-and has used that freedom to accomplish much.

I'm pretty sure it's 50%, either we win a medal or we don't.

"So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%

1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%

5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%

10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%

marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%"

Given these assumptions, the probability of a US male winning at least one medal in at least one of these five events is calculated explicitly as follows

1- [(8/9)(10/11)(3/4)(5/6)(10/11)] = 0.541 = 54.1%

By the way, when odds are listed as 8/1 or 8:1, they refer to the ratio of odds (i.e. the ratio of the odds of an american not winning to the odds of an american winning). Thus, if the odds are 8/1, There is a 1 out of 9 chance that an American wins (so all of your percentages listed are incorrect).

lodo wrote:

I'm pretty sure it's 50%, either we win a medal or we don't.

YES! Finally someone around here who understands statistics.

Not how percentages work wrote:

Not a math major, huh?

Not how probabilities work. (has nothing to do with how percentages work)

Not a math major either, huh?

cenotaph wrote:

is it true we havent had a 800m and above mens medal since shorter in montreal?

Johnny Gray

numbers are fun to play with wrote:

So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%

1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%

5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%

10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%

marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%

According to your numbers we have no chance of winning anything. Reversing the scenario we have an 87.5% chance of no medals in the 800, 90% chance if no medals I the 1500, etc. when summed up, there is a 415% chance we will not win any medals.

Historiologist wrote:

According to your numbers we have no chance of winning anything. Reversing the scenario we have an 87.5% chance of no medals in the 800, 90% chance if no medals I the 1500, etc. when summed up, there is a 415% chance we will not win any medals.

Can you please, for not just your own good, but for the good of our country's future, learn how to do mathematics? Learn how to add, multiply, and when to do which.

laminta wrote:

"So just to get the ball rolling... Please amend...

800 meters... american medal 8/1 12.5%

1500 meters... american medal 10/1 10%

5000 meters... american medal 3/1 33%

10000 meters... american medal 5/1 20%

marathon ... american medal 10/1 10%"

Given these assumptions, the probability of a US male winning at least one medal in at least one of these five events is calculated explicitly as follows

1- [(8/9)(10/11)(3/4)(5/6)(10/11)] = 0.541 = 54.1%

By the way, when odds are listed as 8/1 or 8:1, they refer to the ratio of odds (i.e. the ratio of the odds of an american not winning to the odds of an american winning). Thus, if the odds are 8/1, There is a 1 out of 9 chance that an American wins (so all of your percentages listed are incorrect).

This one is correct if the assumed odds relatively accurate. They don't take into account exclusivity though. I'm not sure if there are any good examples (perhaps women's 1500?), there may be two medal contenders in the same race, and the odds of either Uceny or Simpson meddling is higher than both of them meddling, but the arguments for either are not mutually exclusive.

i wish i were as cool as vento wrote:

Historiologist wrote:

According to your numbers we have no chance of winning anything. Reversing the scenario we have an 87.5% chance of no medals in the 800, 90% chance if no medals I the 1500, etc. when summed up, there is a 415% chance we will not win any medals.

Can you please, for not just your own good, but for the good of our country's future, learn how to do mathematics? Learn how to add, multiply, and when to do which.

I'm pretty sure he was satirizing the math the OP used in his post.

If we throw out Meb for not being American, then we really ought to throw out the 1984 medals, when half the world boycotted us back. That leaves Johnny Gray, who ran for the infamous Santa Monica Track Club, which was funded by a guy born in North Dakota, a well-known unofficial province of Canada. Also, Gray is from LA, which is not really part of the US. Thus, yes, no medals. [quote]rosebyanothername wrote: