coach wrote:
yes times are not that important when there are rounds. The world championship and Olympic 800 are wars of attrition. Bungei got lucky. Rudisha is now experienced and in his prime. He's not just fast anymore and he is so much faster than everyone. It will take an endurance trained 800 meter runner with 1:43 speed to beat him. Are there any 800/1500 types out there this year?
His main man KIPROP!
rojo wrote:
Don't cheat and look it up. I was doing some research today and came across an interesting stat.
Make your predictions below.
I'll post the answer when I feel like it.
I would argue time means everything. The fact that Bungei peaked during the Olympics rather than earlier in the season doesn't mean everyone who runs 1.44/45 can win the Olympics if their head is just in the right place. Its not that simple even tho I know you Americans love to think that Symmonds have a great shot at a medal. He really doesn't.
You can talk about (and Bungei can aswell) the mental part as much as you want, but if a 1.42 shape runner are side by side 1.44 shape runner the last 100m and both have a run at a good pace until then the 1.42 runner WILL win no matter how much the 1.45 runner wants it.
You can destroy a race by struggling with the pressure, but you can't run a race equvivalent of 1.42 if you are in 1.44.5 shape.
Symmonds does have a shot at the bronze...the gold is for Rudisha. I don't think anyone can beat him no matter what. Kaki will quite possibly end up with the silver if he's healthy. I think that out of the seven guys other than rudisha who make the final, 5 or 6 of them will realistically be able to say they have a shot at a medal.
Barakus Obama wrote:
rojo wrote:Don't cheat and look it up. I was doing some research today and came across an interesting stat.
Make your predictions below.
I'll post the answer when I feel like it.
I would argue time means everything. The fact that Bungei peaked during the Olympics rather than earlier in the season doesn't mean everyone who runs 1.44/45 can win the Olympics if their head is just in the right place. Its not that simple even tho I know you Americans love to think that Symmonds have a great shot at a medal. He really doesn't.
You can talk about (and Bungei can aswell) the mental part as much as you want, but if a 1.42 shape runner are side by side 1.44 shape runner the last 100m and both have a run at a good pace until then the 1.42 runner WILL win no matter how much the 1.45 runner wants it.
You can destroy a race by struggling with the pressure, but you can't run a race equvivalent of 1.42 if you are in 1.44.5 shape.
I agree with you.
Rudisha is head and shoulders above the rest of the world's 800m runners and the fact that he is a front runner and likes a fast pace should mean he will win by a clear margin. Then again Coe was a front runner (well, he could when he chose to) and also liked a fast pace, and we know what happened to him in Moscow!
Luckily Rudisha has no "history" with any of his rivals, whereas Coe was arguably psyched himself out of winning in 1980 due to his history (European 800 in 78) with Ovett. I have no doubt Coe could and should have run from the front in Moscow and he'd have won easily.
I think there is less doubt in Rudisha's mind, but I hope he doesn't try and win with a kick from the pack. He should be able to win whatever the type of race or pace, but by not running his natural race, i.e fast and free from the front, he increases the chances of something unexpected happening. Coe had more options for winning, but didn't execute any of them with conviction on the day.
Ironically when Coe lined up for the Moscow final his pb was 1.57 faster than the next fastest in the race, Marajo's 1:43.9.
Looking at this year's 800 rankings, Rudisha is also exactly 1.57 faster this year than the next best, Nijel Amos (??) of Botswana; 1:41.54 to 1:43.11.
If we look at the pbs of the likely finalists in London, then Rudisha has a 1.22 sec advantage over the next fastest, Kaki on 1:42.23.
So, while Rudisha is probably the biggest favourite in London and has looked imperious in all his outings this year, we should remember that the Olympics are a strange place and the pressure can get to someone much more so than a Worlds. Let's hope his limited experience from Beijing will stand him in good stead.
I'm surprised no one has talked about Bungei's splits in that 800m. I get 24.9/28.45/25.65/25.65 as he basically led wire to wire.
Has Rudisha had a faster last 400m split than 51.3 (or even 52.0)? The best that anyone can hope for is for Rudisha to have a brain fart (which is strangely common for WR holders in the Olympic 800m - "You ran like an c*nt") and for him to be involved in a very slow first 400m.
Yes, he ran 51.2, 50.9 in Nairobi the other week!
The only danger is if the first lap goes out in 54/55, which I really don't see happening.
"You ran like an c*nt"...... lol. Yes, I believe those were the actual words used by Peter Coe in Moscow. No wonder he won the 1500, must have been scared stiff what his father would say or do to him afterwards.
Thank you. I missed that race. Holy crap.
deanouk wrote:
Yes, he ran 51.2, 50.9 in Nairobi the other week!
The only danger is if the first lap goes out in 54/55, which I really don't see happening.
"You ran like an c*nt"...... lol. Yes, I believe those were the actual words used by Peter Coe in Moscow. No wonder he won the 1500, must have been scared stiff what his father would say or do to him afterwards.
I agree with you.
Rudisha is head and shoulders above the rest of the world's 800m runners and the fact that he is a front runner and likes a fast pace should mean he will win by a clear margin. Then again Coe was a front runner (well, he could when he chose to) and also liked a fast pace, and we know what happened to him in Moscow!
Luckily Rudisha has no "history" with any of his rivals, whereas Coe was arguably psyched himself out of winning in 1980 due to his history (European 800 in 78) with Ovett. I have no doubt Coe could and should have run from the front in Moscow and he'd have won easily.
I think there is less doubt in Rudisha's mind, but I hope he doesn't try and win with a kick from the pack. He should be able to win whatever the type of race or pace, but by not running his natural race, i.e fast and free from the front, he increases the chances of something unexpected happening. Coe had more options for winning, but didn't execute any of them with conviction on the day.
Ironically when Coe lined up for the Moscow final his pb was 1.57 faster than the next fastest in the race, Marajo's 1:43.9.
Looking at this year's 800 rankings, Rudisha is also exactly 1.57 faster this year than the next best, Nijel Amos (??) of Botswana; 1:41.54 to 1:43.11.
If we look at the pbs of the likely finalists in London, then Rudisha has a 1.22 sec advantage over the next fastest, Kaki on 1:42.23.
So, while Rudisha is probably the biggest favourite in London and has looked imperious in all his outings this year, we should remember that the Olympics are a strange place and the pressure can get to someone much more so than a Worlds. Let's hope his limited experience from Beijing will stand him in good stead.[/quote]
Yeah, as much as I want the Rodals Olympic record to stand for eternity I would love to see Rudisha crush the field with a great front run that would make Usain, Blake, Gatlin and that lot look like a little girls.
kanny wrote:
I'm surprised no one has talked about Bungei's splits in that 800m. I get 24.9/28.45/25.65/25.65 as he basically led wire to wire.
Has Rudisha had a faster last 400m split than 51.3 (or even 52.0)? The best that anyone can hope for is for Rudisha to have a brain fart (which is strangely common for WR holders in the Olympic 800m - "You ran like an c*nt") and for him to be involved in a very slow first 400m.
Well, Rudisha is a good 400m runner and will be running the 4x400 relay for Kenya so I'm guessing there aren't many in the field who can beat him with speed.
Rudisha will win the Olympics in 1:39.99
bungei's personal best time going into the 2008 olympics was 1:42.34, so he was a better 800 runner than his seasonal best would indicate.
times are not everything, but it matters.
800mACE wrote:
Rudisha will win the Olympics in 1:39.99
I second this.
He will break the world record.
Nobody in the current Olympics is anywhere as close in ability as Ovett and Coe were in 1980.
times can be misleading, true.
or
times can tell the story.
in the 800, the biggest crap shoot in the OG, there are variables that can affect your race plus or minus one second.
with the case of rush-d, if everyone has their best day he is more than a second up on the field.
i don't see rush-d letting the pace go slow and he'll blast the last lap in any case.
the only way for him to lose is to have kaki draft off him the whole way, simultaneously with kaki being in the shape of his life on the day.
you'll know by watching the heats if this remote possibility can happen.
the quick "youngsters" from africa (probably 4 years older than stated) should be too green and not fit enough after rounds to give rush-d any substantial problems.
The other way for him to lose (slightly more realistic now... only slightly) is for him to pursue this plan and blow up.
http://www.the-star.co.ke/sports/sports/85503-no-rabbits-for-rudisha