crazy person wrote:
I guess it's not private anymore. What I would like to know is how Centro has gone from running a 3:57 mile and a 3:37 1500 in the last month to all of a sudden being prepared to go under 3:33.
Here are five possibilities, roughly in order of likelihood:
1. He was recently back from injury,
2. He was not doing serious speed work yet,
3. He was prepared to run 3:35 when he ran 3:37,
4. He was aiming to peak in July/August,
5. He is not really prepared to run 3:33 now.
Not going for A-standard = wimpy move by athletes. Fans who endorse it = quitters themselves.
ttc wrote:
So don't try. Got it. Trafeh made a "fool" of himself going for it in the 5K. Ball players should never swing at the plate. They look like fools if they miss.
He didn't make a fool of himself, but he also did not make the team. I have never seen a one or two person tactic (let's try to get the standard) work at the trials. Ever... Now a 6 person strategy has never been tried. Perhaps, as another poster said, that's it's impossible to organize with all those giant egos... Would be great if one of these athletes had a charismatic leader type coach that could pull this off (convince all the other coaches).
I see 3 options.
- slow race, big 51 sec kick. 3 Olympians currently have the A
- random non A decides that he will "go for it". Nothing to lose. Makes it an honest race and he finishes last ( seen that many times )
- great negotiator steps in and makes the Olympics a possibility for one of the non As, by having all of them work on an honest pace (single file, 6 changes of lead, float to back after your short stint at the front)
I would love to see option 3.
You've never seen a 1-2 person tactic gain the standard?? RITZ GOT THE STANDARD THAT WAY A WEEK AGO.
Ritz was 6th in the 2009 WC's.
American Record holder in the 5000. 2 time Olympian.
Not one of the 6 non-A's in the 1500 final have any credentials.
None of them have run 3:35 before.
Will Leer has been trying but he will not take it out and if it's fast he will not beat out these world class milers.
This is a six man race for the team.
ttc wrote:
You've never seen a 1-2 person tactic gain the standard?? RITZ GOT THE STANDARD THAT WAY A WEEK AGO.
...in the 1500
I just proved you wrong- and now you're changing.
ttc wrote:
You've never seen a 1-2 person tactic gain the standard?? RITZ GOT THE STANDARD THAT WAY A WEEK AGO.
Not even close to being similar. Ritz paced with the fastest guy in the field by far - someone that could run the A time without killing themselves. Ritz was also faster than almost any of the other runners.
In the 1500 the guys without the A are the slowest. They cannot run away from the rest of the field. They will still get outkicked in the end.
You're changing again. Gabe Jennings is another. Halfway, he ran away from the field to a 30M lead in the 2000 trials. That got him the A-Standard. Ritz and Gabe.
ttc wrote:
You're changing again. Gabe Jennings is another. Halfway, he ran away from the field to a 30M lead in the 2000 trials. That got him the A-Standard. Ritz and Gabe.
What am I changing? I specifically addressed your example of Ritz in the 10K.
In 2000 Jennings did not make his move until 600 to go. It was really Boulet that pushed the pace earlier, making it possible for Jennings to get his A.
2005 USATF's, Hall broke away with Dobson early in the race, allowing them both to achieve A-Standards. So that's Ritz, Gabe, Hall, Dobson who lacked A's, but went for them and got them.
...and Boulet came 11th
ttc wrote:
2005 USATF's, Hall broke away with Dobson early in the race, allowing them both to achieve A-Standards. So that's Ritz, Gabe, Hall, Dobson who lacked A's, but went for them and got them.
Talk about changing...we were discussing achieving the A during the trials, not any other race we can think of where someone achieved the standard.
Kim Conley did it recently too.
It's definitely way more difficult to lead the 1500 AND win (who besides Berryhill could do it?) but ttc is right- 2 or 3 of these guys just need to do it.
My guess is MacNamara will lead the charge and hopefully employ Leer and Miller to help. All three are close enough and good enough to get it so they might as well try.
Will they end up top3? Unlikely, but they won't in a slow race either.
If guys without the A want to team up and push the pace, good for them. Personally, I'm more interested to see what happens with the 6 that have it.
Centro, Wheating, Andrews, Manzano, and Torrence. I think the team will come from those 5, but the order of the finish and who gets left off is anybody's guess. I think this is the most intriguing U.S. men's distance race in years.
That's what would make it even better. I always enjoyed seeing a good kick off a fast pace. 90% chance that the top 3 will be from the 6 guys with the A no matter what the tactics are...
But the group effort would give one of the guys, without the A, a chance to be an Olympian.
But "of course" if others go out slow, then the non-A's should just follow along and give up the olympics. Despite being in the finals. This because the odds are against them. Just shut that door 100%. Good thing Gabe, Ritz and Hall didn't listen to that quitting attitude.
This thread about the 1500. Not the 100, 800, 5000 or marathon.
We often see people run PRs in the 800, going wire to wire. It's a different event. The 5000 and 10000 are different events... All 12 guys are never within 10 meters of each other with 300m to go in a 10000, but in a 1500, run at a good pace with all top runners in the country, that's what you get...
It's just an unfortunate truth that whoever decides to "go for it" alone, will end up 10th, 11 th or 12 th...
I'm sill hoping for a group effort from the non As ( which has never happened, but could become an instructional video for the future)...
Look at Gabe "going for it" in 2008... Did he even finish? The camera completely lost him in the last 150m...
You can also look at the video of Boulet "going for it" in 2000... Boulet "going for it", and finishing 11th helped out Gabe... It was not a "group" effort of both. Just a sacrificial lamb effort on the part of Boulet...
Example after example...
It needs to be done by a group...
Its most likely too late to get the 'A' given the history of 1500 meter finals strategy...I would treat it like it is, the US championships, and go for a top three finish...better to have a top three finish at US champs on your resume than to go out too fast trying to run an un-rabbitted 'A' standard. Face it, if you haven't run A standard in a rabbitted race, it is unlikely you can run it in a run from the gun solo effort
Think about it, given wind resistance of running in the lead at 15-17 mph, an A-standard run from the gun effort is significantly harder than a rabbitted 1500m to hit the A standard.