Is Facebook a fad?

there were already 100s of countries with their own social media sites before facebook came along and those sites are still going strong. facebook can't compete on the cultural level with other countries. the only people in foreign counties on facebook are those who are u.s. oriented.

in the u.s. facebook has eaten away myspace and little niche social media sites. specialized sites like blackplanet.com are still growing like crazy but i don't see the small running social media sites as surviving very long given nearly every elite, sub-elite and college runner has moved to facebook, twitter, linked in, etc. rather i see small running sites melting down at a faster pace. already marathonguide.com is in trouble.

heard on NPR it is valued at more than Ford and Boeing combined, but has profits of less than either.

my opinion pretty Sure the youth of the world will be moving onto something new pretty soon as their parents/friends parents/grand parents are now on facebook so they feel less free to post whatever they want. Facebook will be around for years. but it will die and the stock is way overvalued would not touch it

The stickiness of users is part of the appeal. The other appeal is that FB has barely begun to use their users information. There is very little targeted advertising. Earnings could easily go from $1bn in 2011 to $10bn in 2-3yrs. It is not like they are now wringing ever last penny they can from users. There is still a lot they are not doing.

FB didn't even have any revenue until 2007. It was all run for free up to that point.

They have captured almost 1bn users and very skillfully created this aura around MZ and the whole company. It is going to get very big.

BRG/253 wrote:

... Mark Zuckerberg is a genius...

Got a huge chuckle out of that. Thanks for the laugh.

DL13 wrote:

He didn't screw up the IPO. Funds can't get enough FB. The IPO is already overscribed and they keep raising the price range. It's looking like the IPO price will be in the high 30's, giving Facebook a value over 100 billion. And who knows where the stock will be trading when it actually opens up? 40? 45? 50?

It almost certainly will open higher. A well-marketed IPO should always be oversubscribed. It's done on purpose to generate interest in the offering. In effect, it lets the big money investment bankers buy at a discount (the IPO price), but the demand is so much more the stock is almost guaranteed to go up the first day.

Example: Assume the stock is offered at, say, $32, but opens at $37 and moves almost immediately to $43 on the first day. This generates even more interest... wow, it popped 30% on opening day! That generates more buying interest. The investment bankers sell into this buying spree as soon as legally possibly to lock in their profit.

Lyndon Larouche wrote:

...

They have captured almost 1bn users...

I'm skeptical of that number. Partly I'm skeptical because I'm counted as one of those almost 1bn users and I haven't updated or even visited my page in more than a year. I also don't know a single straight adult (25+) male who isn't in marketing who is a regular user.

My guess is that the actual number of regular users is maybe a quarter of that often repeated 900 million users. That's still a lot of people but it isn't the majority of the developed world that some would like you to believe.

who's counting wrote:

I also don't know a single straight adult (25+) male who isn't in marketing who is a regular user.

What does sexual orientation have to do with it?

No, you are wrong. To be considered an active user - which Facebook claims to have over 800,000,000, you have to use the site on average of once a month. That means you are liking something, updating your status, uploading content, etc. If you are truly not using it, you are not being counted.

Also, you are nuts about not knowing a single 25+ man on Facebook. Are you joking? By the way... how would you know if you don't use it...?

Most of you don't really understand the platform. Facebook is more than a website that you visit. It is a social platform that spans the entire internet. It is woven into everything, from ecommerce to news to entertainment to etc.

Comparing MySpace to Facebook is like comparing a gocart to the Boeing 747.

Also, Facebook is an international powerhouse and only getting stronger. Sure, there are other communities in other countries, but it doesn't mean that people don't also use Facebook.

So how long have you worked at facebook?

That restricted stock you have gonna buy you a house in six months when you can sell? Dont worry you will be ok, you dont have to pump (the stock) so you can dump (the stock)

brogan1 wrote:

who's counting wrote:

I also don't know a single straight adult (25+) male who isn't in marketing who is a regular user.

What does sexual orientation have to do with it?

I don't know. But the few adult males I know who are regular Facebook users (or at least claim to be) are gay. I'm not making a value judgement, just an observation.

Slowdown90s wrote:

So how long have you worked at facebook?

That restricted stock you have gonna buy you a house in six months when you can sell? Dont worry you will be ok, you dont have to pump (the stock) so you can dump (the stock)

Yeah, I wish. I do work in Social Media, just not Facebook. I have a good friend there, though, but just in the programming area. Nothing too flashy.

Who's Counting, your observation is just so wrong. Straight males make up the largest % of Facebook users...

Clink-o wrote:

how would you know if you don't use it...?

I'm basing that on people that I know socially or professionally. Lots of women talk about things they see and do on Facebook but not men (except people using it for marketing/promotion). Maybe the men are all secretly avid users, which as you say I wouldn't be able to verify if I don't go there, but somehow I doubt it.

And I'm still very dubious of the reported numbers. It just doesn't jibe with my own experience.

I don't think it will last. Rumor in the valley has it that the Winklevoss brothers will be launching their own social network soon, called "World Connect". It will be a successor of the famous Harvard connect. It will be very exclusive.

who's counting wrote:

And I'm still very dubious of the reported numbers. It just doesn't jibe with my own experience.

Your vast experience in the Social Media sphere?

The potential revenue from current users is phenomenal. And the currency they now have to make acquisitions is real. They can fold in a number of things like Twitter, Dropbox, etc. Facebook Professional? Definitely in the pipe.

Think about the number of companies trying to make something to sell to Google. Google operates in 2 dimensions, FB in 3. So FB will now become an incubator for lots of new ideas and directions - a launch pad for newer and bigger concepts.

Its going to be massive.

who's counting wrote:

I'm basing that on people that I know socially or professionally. Lots of women talk about things they see and do on Facebook but not men (except people using it for marketing/promotion). Maybe the men are all secretly avid users, which as you say I wouldn't be able to verify if I don't go there, but somehow I doubt it.

And I'm still very dubious of the reported numbers. It just doesn't jibe with my own experience.

Agree with your perspective. It is big but not as big as claimed. Most of the straight males (30+ years of age) I talk with also never really spend any time on there.

And to the individual asking what sexual orientation has to do with it - gay men are psychologically a fair bit like women. Nothing wrong with that. But it does (on average) include:

1) a desire to connect on some level a whole lot more frequently and with a whole lot more folks than is the case (on average) with straight men

and

2) a desire for attention

Hence, Facebook.

None of this is to say there is anything wrong with Facebook. It doesn't have much appeal for me but it is clearly considered useful by a whole lot of folks. As a business they are in a good position to be making money hand over fist. Will they be such a big name in 10 years? I have no idea.

Tommy2Nuttz wrote:

Now thats its about to go IPO, can it really maintain its stock value over the long term?

Yes they have a lot of people using it, but will this be over in the next 5-10yrs, as new interests grab peoples attention?

It is most definitely a fad. Might be one that hangs around longer than most fads, but a fad nonetheless. Hopefully Zuckerberg has some of his net worth outside of being tied up in the company.

Myspace was huge for a while. Men used to wear shorts in the 80s that stopped mid thigh. Silly bands were insane for a year there.

Already Facebook is seeing pushback. Some people are "addicted" to it, causing negative connotations. Many have stopped using Facebook because it took too much of their time. Some don't like the privacy issue.

Not sure what people will be doing in 10 years, but Americans are more fickle than ever before, so without question the Facebook we know today will not be the same 10 years from now...either fizzled to nothing or greatly changed.

Flagpole wrote:

1. Myspace was huge for a while.

[..]

2. Many have stopped using Facebook because it took too much of their time.

[..]

3. Some don't like the privacy issue.

[..]

4. the Facebook we know today will not be the same 10 years from now...either fizzled to nothing or greatly changed.

1. Myspace made a few significant errors. They didn't fight spam, they didn't improve much over time/took facebook seriously as a competitor and they sell off to Murdoch in order to cash in instead of creating a legacy.

2. Many have stopped using bacon because it tastes too good. See the analogy? They spent too much time because it was too interesting.

3. Who doesn't like the privacy issue doesn't understand how photo sharing works, for example. If I upload a picture of you and me to facebook, who should be the owner? You or me? Or neither?

4. Agreed. Adapt or die. So far facebook has constantly been evolving. They will have to continue to do this or they will die. However, I have more confidence in them than in Myspace.

I agree with all you say. Myspace made big mistakes, but the point is that they were HUGE at one point. Facebook is not immune to making a miscalculation at some point. Eventually people tire of the same old same old. Today people enjoy reconnecting with their former flames and classmates. Might get old at some point, and I'm betting it will.

Flagpole wrote:

I agree with all you say. Myspace made big mistakes, but the point is that they were HUGE at one point. Facebook is not immune to making a miscalculation at some point.

Yes and at some point they will. I think it will happen later rather than sooner. Maybe they can last 20 years...could also just be 5.