Webb's Chance to Make the Olympics

50% chance he injures himself before 1500 final. If healthy, 50% chance he doesn't get "A" standard before trials, and 40% chance that even if he does, he is still unable to outkick/outrace Centro Manzano and Lamong. If for some reason. So that's a total of 5%. However if Lamong decides to run 5K, or for some reason Manzano or Centro are out, I'd say his chances improve to maybe 15-20%-- which all things considered is respectable.

Very few people are mentioning Wheating in all of this. I don't understand why?

Lomong is very good... but I see him running the 5000 at the Trials. He also is a bit erratic and not all that explosive. He's like Teg. Teg could probably run 3:33 flat when he was in 12:58 shape... and could kick a 54 off a 13:20 pace. Sound familiar? Lomong is not a lock for the 1500. I think he is close to one in the 5000.

Centro and Monzano should be the clear favorites for the 1500, followed by Wheating. Even if Lomong runs, I would put those 3 ahead of him if they were all healthy. I could easily see Lomong finish 4th.

Webb needs things to go right. He needs at least 1, if not several of the following to happen:

An implosion by Monzano

Lomong to run the 5000

Wheating to not be fully healthy

A continued rapid increase in fitness

I think he will have a continued rapid increase in fitness

I thionk Lomong will run the 5000

I don't think Monzano will implode

That leaves Wheating. I think Webb's London ticket goes through Andrew. 2 supreme talents.

Even if all the above fall into place, Torrance and Brown will be right there breathing down his neck. Torrance in particular looks like the biggest dark horse threat.

Webb should not try and win the race at 400 or 500. He will run out of gas. Webb should try and be up front with 300 to go and not go until 150 or 200. He won't make the team if he waits til the last 100, and will run out of gas if he goes too early.

His best chance is to try and go with 200 to go, get good position, and hold off 2 guys who will likely have far superior last 100s (Monzano and Centro, most likely).

This year's OT looks to be the most interesting nationals in a long, long time. I can't remember so much uncertainty across distance events, and so many story lines as there are this year. From supreme talents (Wheating), to comeback stories (Ritz, Teg, Webb) to the guys who have worked their way up (Torrance).

Amazing.

In 2008, he was supposed to be at his peak, except it was a year too late. In 2004 he was young and had 4 more years to get it right. In 2012, it's too little, too late and he's too old.

why are people even talking about wheating? has he even run a race this year? great he ran fast before he got injured but he hasn't even been on the line yet, has he? you all really expect him to "round in to" 3:32 shape in a month or in two races? yeah, right.

webb on the other hand is running doubles and building on his strength and base from last fall into this year. he's building his strength for the rounds which is the smartest thing he can do so far this year.

what will he run in the 800? who knows. he just ran his second 1500m/5000m double in 2-3 weeks and is know dropping into an 800? i have no idea what to expect from him for this but he is in running with andrews so i could understand if he is the rabbit again - basically go out as fast as he can and hold on to maybe a 52-56 1:48. or he could blow the doors off even andrews and throw down a 1:45. it is just really suprising to drop down to another 800 isn't it - given his recent longer doubles?

Conto wrote:

Webb needs things to go right. He needs at least 1, if not several of the following to happen:

The other (though unlikely) possibility is that Webb returns to the peak form he had in 2004 and 2007 (I'm pretty sure those years are right, but too lazy to look it up). If that's the case he's a virtual lock, since there's no way Centro, Wheating, and Leo all beat a 3:46 miler with 1:43 800m speed at his best.

Not this time Webb wrote:

In 2012, it's too little, too late and he's too old.

Wait, wait, hold on. Let me get this right. So Lagat wins multiple gold and other medals throughout his mid-30's, taking this year's indoor 3k crown at the age of 37, and Alan who just turned 29 is somehow "too old"?

Less than Hasay

No you wait, wait and hold on. I knew someone would bring up Lagat- sorry, no comparison. Lagat is a genetic freak of nature who stays injury free and remains a medal contender on the world stage. Webb chokes, has run great time trials in the past but has never proven that he can win or be in contention to win a championship race. Webb isn't going to London.

Webb chokes, has run great time trials in the past but has never proven that he can win or be in contention to win a championship race.

Never is a damn long time.

To help assist your faulty memory:

2004 Olympic Trials: Webb bitch-slaps the field over the last 700 meters to win going away.

2005 USATF Outdoor Championships: Webb wins again.

2007 USATF Indoor Championships: Webb wins again.

2007 USATF Outdoor Championship: Webb wins again.

2007 World Championships: Webb was either leading or in second up until 100 to go - most definitely in contention for the win.

The Factual Record wrote:

Webb chokes, has run great time trials in the past but has never proven that he can win or be in contention to win a championship race.

Never is a damn long time.

To help assist your faulty memory:

2004 Olympic Trials: Webb bitch-slaps the field over the last 700 meters to win going away.

2005 USATF Outdoor Championships: Webb wins again.

2007 USATF Indoor Championships: Webb wins again.

2007 USATF Outdoor Championship: Webb wins again.

2007 World Championships: Webb was either leading or in second up until 100 to go - most definitely in contention for the win.

Give it up. You're talking about 5-8 years ago and at the 2007 World Championships, he finished 8th place? Ancient history- Webb isn't winning USTAF championships NOW.

I would say slim, so what makes you right?

Admit it - you got caught talking out of your ass.

You claimed Webb "has never proven that he can win or be in contention to win a championship race". Your word: "NEVER".

I gave FOUR examples where Webb WON CHAMPIONSHIP RACES.

So you can either:

a.) Document how those four championship wins by Webb are actually hoaxes that did not really happen at all,

or

b.) Pull your freakin head out of your ass and join the real world where what happened in the past really did happen,

or

c.) Slither back under your rock, keep your head squarely up inside your rectum, and continue living in your fantasy world.

Webb's chances of the Olympics are slowly increasing, be it either 1500m or 5000m.

For Day 7 of the Olympic trials, the 1st round of the 1500m is the same day as the final for the 5000m. Puts a big damper in people wanting to double in the 1500m and 5000m, which I doubt they will. The 5000m being as stacked as it will be, I don't think people are going for the double this year, Lagat said he won't, I doubt Lomong would either.

So people will either do 1500m or 5000m.

Jager is doing neither the 1500m or the 5000m so he is not a threat there. Lagat isn't doing the 1500m. Lomong will either do 1500m or 5000m. Rupp will do the 5000m but he's doubling back after the 10000m, and Teg said he wanted to do the 10000m so if he also does the 5000m he'll be doubling back since the 10000m is first. Also, Solinsky is out of the trials so he won't be a 5000m threat.

If Lomong does the 5000m, the 1500m will seem like Webb has a shot since it won't have Lagat in it. The only factor is what kind of shape Wheating is in. Manzano has shown that he will make the team. If Wheating whips out a sub 3:35 time on Saturday (IF he does the 1500m), then Webb might not make it in the 1500m, but if Wheating is in similar shape, he has a chance.

For the 5000m, Rupp will be tired, Teg will be tired, no Solinsky, no Jager. Literally the top 3 in 2009 won't be there. Big threats would be Lagat and Lomong, so if Lomong does the 1500m, Webb has a chance in the 5000m.

I think Webb should decide to do either the 5000m or the 1500m based on which race Lomong enters. If Lomong does the 5000m, do the 1500m, and if Lomong does the 1500m, do the 5000m.

Of course this would change if Webb happens to whip out a 1:46 this weekend, but based off of indoor and his recent 1500m/5000m doubles, it seems his aerobic strength might be better than his speed.

And as for upcoming races, I think it would be cool if Webb either raced the 5000m at Pre or paced it to 2000m or so and then finish to a relatively fast time. However he will probably end up doing the Bowerman Mile but it would still be cool to see him jump into a fast 5000m. It HAS to be in the back of his mind at this point.

I'd put him as a 20-1 long shot.

History shows the finals of the OT are almost always tactical, and Webb never comes off well in those kinds of races. So unless he decides to lead and try to run away with it like in 2004, the advantage is to kickers like Centrowitz, Manzano, and Wheating.

Centrowitz has already demonstrated his tactical expertise. Wheating can survive running in lane two the whole race if his kick is there, as in 2010, not 2011.

However, Manzano has never been at his best in Eugene for some reason, so that might leave open the door for Torrance or Russell Brown, or maybe Lomong if he doesn't run the 5,000. Darkhorse: Miles Batty.

I like your analysis, except for one factor: Olympic qualifying times. So far, Webb does not have an A or B qualifier in either event (3:35.50/3:38.00 and 13:20/13:27) and the opportunities for getting qualifiers are quickly running out (achieving the standards at the Trials seems unlikely, seeing as the Oly Trials records are 3:35:15/ 13:22.8).

Webb has got to take a stab or two at 3:35.50 before the trials. Where are those opportunities? Maybe at Oxy in two weeks? The Bowerman Mile seems a little too high-powered at this point - maybe the "International Mile" (perhaps they'll change it to the "International 1500" this year to help people chase qualifiers) on Hollister Night the evening before Pre? New York DL meet? Seems doubtful he'd chase both <3:35.50 and <13:20 over the next six weeks. At any rate, I hope he can just continue riding his steep improvement curve (without overcooking it or getting injured) and be a factor in Eugene.

The Factual Record wrote:

I like your analysis, except for one factor: Olympic qualifying times. So far, Webb does not have an A or B qualifier in either event (3:35.50/3:38.00 and 13:20/13:27) and the opportunities for getting qualifiers are quickly running out (achieving the standards at the Trials seems unlikely, seeing as the Oly Trials records are 3:35:15/ 13:22.8).

He has to make the A before the trials or at them. There is no chasing of standards after the trials. There will be no B qualifiers sent in either the 1500 or 5000. (No AAB allowed, it is either AAA or B; so unless something catastrophic happens and only one A standard runner ends up completing the 1500 or 5000, only A qualified runners will be selected)

Yes of course I'm assuming/hoping as we all are that Webb hits the A times. I agree the analysis makes no sense without him hitting the A's that's why I'm assuming/hoping he does.

I'm surprised he's not doing the 1500m this weekend because I'd assume he'd want to get the A for the 1500m as quickly as possible since I don't see him trying to go for the 800m at the trials. Maybe if he hit the A first it would make more sense, although maybe he's confident enough he will hit the A so he's working on speed. Who knows.

If he hits the A in the 1500m before Pre (which he probably wants to do because I doubt he still wants to be chasing that time in June since it's so close to the trials) I still think he should hop in the 5000m at Pre to get the A time. If not, he would probably do the Bowerman mile or the "international mile." And as for changing it to a 1500m, they take FAT times at the 1500m mark in the race, so Webb could hit the 1500m mark at Pre in under 3:35 and then close in 40 and finish in last place for all he cares. The 1500m time would count, so they wouldn't have to change the race.

running liker wrote:

I would say slim, so what makes you right?

Webb has been counted out many times and like a cockroach he never goes away. How can you count someone whose mile PR is on average 5 seconds faster than his U.S. competitors. Webb does not have to get back to his '07 shape, 90% of that puts him in mix for making the USOT. Keep in mind only a year ago coming off of injury Webb ran 1:46/3:36 and beat Rupp in a road 5K.

Webb is kind of like Jim Ryun in that Jim trained so hard that if he wasn't properly tappered he would run 4:05, but could come back the next week and run 3:55. I admit that Webb does not have a lot of time to get it together, but you would have to be a fool to count him out.