Sammy Wanjiru vs. Geoffrey Mutai

When Wanjiru ran 2:05:10 in London, I believe it made him the 6th fastest performer ever (Geb, Kibet, Kwambai, Tergat, Korir).

The fact that he could go out so fast and still hold on is a testament to his ability. I'm not so sure Mutai would be at his best in that sort of race. He has shown devastating strength in the second half of the race, but would he have it after getting blitzed in the first half?

So what happens if they go out slower? Well it seems quite clear that Wanjiru also had superior closing speed. Maybe Mutai could run 26:40 or 58:30, but fact is he hasn't, and Wanjiru had.

Wanjiru in 2008/2009 form would beat 2011 Mutai in either style race: Suicidal from the gun, or a final 10k duke it out.

Wanjiru ran 26:41 10k at the age of 18 going out with Bekele on WR pace, hitting 5k at about 13:10. That race only served as a preparation for half marathon - he ran his first HM WR of 59:16 a few weeks later. His Japanese coach was very surprised by his 10k time, saying Wanjiru's training and 26:41 performance did not add up:

http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/japan-in-wanjiru-in-conclusion.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6roXDygZ3ag

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfva_H4RBPU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0aOfzHvoqQ&feature=relmfu

He could have been one of the best track runners. He clearly had at least sub 26:30 potential. I would love to see his duels with Bekele in championships had he specialized in 10 000m. I can imagine he would have raced hard since the start to eliminate Bekele's kick. But Sammy was smart money wise, he went for road racing with much bigger $$$ rewards and I even his half marathon WR of 58:33 was without pace setters - they could not keep up

http://www.iaaf.org/news/kind=2/newsid=37989.html

Great videos, thanks.

sammy may have been the more talented of the two, despite g moot's better times. sammy is first and foremost a racer, not a time trialist. he doesnt have the times of mutai, primarily because he didnt have to run that fast. he didnt live in the 2:03 world, but if he did, i have no doubt he would scrap his way to the top of today's best

In terms of [Wanjiru’s] training, he hadn’t done the training to run that kind of time, but when he got into the race he ran it. He was the type of athlete who practiced at 100% and raced at 130 or 140%. He didn’t really have much basic speed. If you look at his 5000 m or whatever it wasn’t that fast, but he had incredible strength to hold a pace. Because of that combination I was thinking all along that with that kind of strength he would really be something in the marathon. I was thinking the marathon, but like I said before he was saying, “Track, track, track,” most of the time, so we mostly stuck to that

he ran 26'41 which evened out off ~ 13'10/13'31 musta been worth at worst 26'35 & maybe close to 26'30 ( if you even out the 25 laps )

he was using that as "training run" for his 59'16 coupla weeks later

he did end up going 58'33 & i'd be surprised if his training schedule was much different then, just improved strength with maturity

you have to think he was capable of near 26'20 when he set his 58'33pb ( & i mean if he'd run a 10k that day & not a 1/2M )

posters may scoff, but you coud try some estimates fror him in his 58'33 shape ( the below are for track times, so add ~ 1'00+ to the 1/2M time for non-ideal conditions of a road race )

if he was a "metronomic plodder" with no speed, i think you gotta think something like 55.0 speed

you get some interesting lines :

55.0 with

1'53.7 -> 3'39.5 , 7'32.9 , 12'51.8 , 26'29.8 , 57'40

1'53.6 -> 3'39.2 , 7'31.8 , 12'49.5 , 26'24.0 , 57'25

1'53.5 -> 3'38.8 , 7'30.7 , 12'47.3 , 26'18.2 , 57'09

1'53.4 -> 3'38.5 , 7'29.6 , 12'45.0 , 26'12.4 , 56'54

( i woudn't completely dismiss these as 2nd line isn't that much different from tergat, albeit he had quicker theoretical 400/800 & he was still running 1/2M off 10k training so maybe didn't reach his potential at the time despite wrs at 1/2M )

experience tells me that you gotta look at 2nd/3rd line for sammy in his 58'33 shape ( & about the same for tadesse when he broke wr )

mutai probably isn't that far off those either

We are talking about Kamau during Easter. Wow!

Oh Please,

Nice analysis. I am with you on this. Wanjiru is like that guy who dies on Nascar track, enheardt or however you spell his name. He (Wanjiru) was an intimidator. Everyone knew that he wasn't just good but GREAT!

So, what did they do in response?

They reacted to him rather than cause Wanjiru to react to them. THAT WAS HIS STRENGTH!

I DONT THINK THERE IS A BETTER MARATHONER TO WATCH RACE THAN KAMAU.

If you put a healthy and fit Kirui, Mutai E&G, Makau, Kipsang, Mosop, Geb, Kebede, Hall, Abshiro ...et al .... All of them having their best day on that day (let's assume that that were possible for the sake of this debate/argument), here is what would happen;

Wanjiru, like a bat out of hell, would take of from the gun at incinerating speed.

Remember the English saying "when the going gets tough, let the tough get going...."?

Assuming that you have twenty top guys in the race, five would be dropped in the first few miles and the reason is that they'd be scared of a furious early opening pace.

I can see Wanjiru injecting a surge within a surge within a surge ... And with 20 miles gone, the group would be whittled to ten with five guys barely hanging on.

Then kamau would surge again and that commentator would say that THIS IS A MAN RUNNING DOWN THE STREET!

with two miles to go, only the tough would be hanging on alongside Wanjiru and in the last Kilometre, he'd finish the job in a time of 2:04 depending on the course.

I strongly beleve that we hadn't seen the best of Wanjiru but he is a guy who could rise to the ocassion when the situation demanded that he does so.

Just my thoughts.

I meant "died".

The Dingo wrote:

In a lot of peoples opinion Geoffrey Mutai is the best marathoner on the planet right now. However, If you asked this question a year ago everyone would have said Wanjiru.

Hypothetically, put a healthy/fit Wanjiru and a healthy/fit Mutai in London for the Olympics. Who wins?

A couple of 2:05 marathoners.

Neither of them win, and neither of them place.

NativeSon: I agree entirely. Everyone on their best day and Wanjiru wins. He was not afraid of anything and always rose to the occasion.

ventolin^3: You think Samuel Wanjiru was only good for 55 in the 400, but could run sub 3:40 off of 1:53? I agree that he could have run sub-4 for the mile without sweating it. I think though that maybe his shorter limits were around 1:50 and 53.

The dead legend always wins.

casual commentary wrote:I agree that he could have run sub-4 for the mile without sweating it. I think though that maybe his shorter limits were around 1:50 and 53.

unlikely

kennster 5'34 in here says he coud go 1'48 ( sammy woudn't be close )