Bolt vs. Bekele 600m projected times. Bolt 1:17, Bekele 1:18

you still don't get it

even if choge had better 400 speed than kennster ( he does ), you are saying kennster's 800 has caught up with choge's as he has actual 1'44 ( flat out - watch the vid ) & you are saying kennster may have 1'44

having "caught" him at 800 race, logically, he can only surpass him at 1500 race

if choge went 3'29, why didn't kennster's surpass him to 3'26 or 3'25 ???

why was his 1500pb only a paltry 3'32 & he got whupped 2 out of the 3 times he ran it ???

Check again wrote:200 at 19.2 and 400 at 45.3 would yield what for a 600? Or would this be skewed because we don't have a long enough run to be accurate?

that calculator doesn't input 200m as it is not a distance "evenly" run

you coud try with his 300pb ( possibly coud be run evenly ) of 30.9 & say a 400 of maybe 44.5 - 45.0

30.9 / 44.5 - 45.0 ->1'13.8 - 1'15.6

however, his endurance woudn't last "perfectly" to 600 ( it doesn't even to 400 )

i'd say about 1'15 woud be his hypothetical limit, but in actuality, a handful of seconds slower

I meant closer to 1:44 than to 1:47. Where did the 1:44 even come from? I thought you said that. Or was it someone else?

What are you saying Bekele's real 800m time is?

Ventolin do you not consider specific endurance at all? Taking Choge and Bekele.... there's every chance that Choge is slower over 400m than Bekele and yet be faster than him over 800-1500... why? Because he's trained for those events almost his entire career. Bekele has always trained for 5-10k and so may have quicker flat speed but hasn't utilised his potential at the middle distance events. Why would he when he's king of the 5 and 10k? Steve Ovett was faster than Steve Cram over 400m and yet Cram has faster times over 800-1500m, granted Ovett was never overly interested in times so he could probably have gone quicker, especially at 800 but the point still stands. I know it doesn't agree with your calculator but not everything can be explained in formulae.

Speeeed wrote:Ventolin do you not consider specific endurance at all? Taking Choge and Bekele.... there's every chance that Choge is slower over 400m than Bekele and yet be faster than him over 800-1500...

eh ???

how many 3'29 guys ( or even 1'44 ones ) you figure are slower than 50 ???

why? Because he's trained for those events almost his entire career. Bekele has always trained for 5-10k and so may have quicker flat speed but hasn't utilised his potential at the middle distance events

& how much speed training was choge doing when starting out as a 12'55 guy ?

Steve Ovett was faster than Steve Cram over 400m and yet Cram has faster times over 800-1500m

i assume you are going by cram's listed pb of 49 ???

No I'm going on Cram saying he was slower than both Coe and Ovett over 400m.

Ventolin, how fast of an 800 would we have to assume for Bolt in order for him to beat Bekele's 1:19.3.

I mentioned 44" speed for Bolt because he ran 43.6 in a 4x400 leg...and 30.9" in a 300m at Ostrava.

Check again wrote:

Ventolin, the OP mentioned 44 second speed for Bolt. I don't think he has a 400 under 45 which, in my opinion would give a fairly lousy endurance ratio according to your calculator. 200 at 19.2 and 400 at 45.3 would yield what for a 600? Or would this be skewed because we don't have a long enough run to be accurate?

I'm curious, please let me know. I'm guessing Bolt's 600 would be closer to 1:20 to 1:21. Does that seem fair to you?

Thanks

ventolin, what can asbel kiprop run for a 400?

There's a race on youtube.

Asbel ran 48.xx @ Iten regionals...dirt track, manual timing and he was running barefoot I think.

I know. I was trying to catch Ventolin.

I take issue with how he thinks some elite distance runners such as lagat, bekele, and el guerrouj can't break 50 for a 400.

Really, only 51.x for Bekele, the man who closes world-class 5ks and 10ks in 52-53? Something about that still doesn't seem right to me.

I'd still take Bekele for a 600 over Bolt. The 600 is more like an 800 than a 4, and the 4 is already the extent of Bolt's range.

bangalangadanga wrote:

ventolin, what can asbel kiprop run for a 400?

46.7 / 1'42.8 -> 2'12.3 , 3'28.8 , 3'45.9 , 4'48.1 , 7'32.8

or

46.8 / 1'42.8 -> 2'12.2 , 3'28.4 , 3'45.5 , 4'47.4 , 7'31.3

are the lines of fit i'd start with for him last year ( albeit i don't believe his endurance "lasts" perfectly to 2k, let alone 3k off his 1500/800 training, so his actual 2k/3k times are likely to be a significant bit slower than theoretical )

46.7 or 46.8 i'd say for 400...

fiftypence wrote:Ventolin, how fast of an 800 would we have to assume for Bolt in order for him to beat Bekele's 1:19.3.

this really is not going to lead anywhere, but

44.5 - 45.0 ( assuming that is bolt's best ) with 1'19.3

->1'56.9 - 1'57.7

if bolt coud demonstrate about 2-flat, then i'd think he'd take the win over 600

bangalangadanga wrote:I know. I was trying to catch Ventolin.

I take issue with how he thinks some elite distance runners such as lagat, bekele, and el guerrouj can't break 50 for a 400.

eh???

not in a million years woud i say hicham or bernie have >50

hicham in '98 :

47.5 / 1'42.7 -> 2'11.5 , 3'25.7 , 3'42.3 , 4'42.2 , 7'20.2 , 12'49.2

something like mid-47 speed, high-1'42 & if he was lucky, close to 7'20 ( but his endurance may not have "lasted" perfectly to 3k off 1500 training, so 7'21/7'22 wouda been maybe top ) & the 5k is purely academic, but he did go 12'50 years later when 1500/5k guy )

bernie's 400/800 woudn't have been far off, but long way off for 3k/5k then as he was "pure" 1500 guy

now, surprise is noah

i thought he'd be similar to these 2, but looking at his 2'11.9wr, he ran that off suicidal high-49, which is 1'42 pace !!!

flattening the 200 splits out, you get near 2'11.0 & add in fatigue in his legs of a 3'29.1 run just 2/7 before in brussels & i reckon, if fully rested for 1/52 before rieti with sensible pacing, he couda gone high-2'10

that leads to a line of fit :

46.3 / 1'41.7 ! -> 2'10.8 , 3'26.2 , 3'43.1

the take home message, which shows usefulness of calculators, is that noah was probably in high-1'41 shape that year & if he'd known that, he mighta doubled in '00 & seeing how poorly kip performed there, couda blown the field away with a solo run in the 800...

ventolin^3 wrote:

the take home message, which shows usefulness of calculators, is that noah was probably in high-1'41 shape that year & if he'd known that, he mighta doubled in '00 & seeing how poorly kip performed there, couda blown the field away with a solo run in the 800...

The take home message is that your calculator failed to show you something which might make you rethink the above...

Let's see.

2000 Olympics

800m

Round 1 September 23

Semifinal September 25

Final September 27

1500m

Round 1 September 25

Semifinal September 27

Final September 29

yes, i'm aware the timetable looked virtually impossible, but we are talking a guy who ran 3'29.1 on a friday ( win ) then on sunday ran 2'11.9 off a high-49 !

he had fantastic recuperative powers

23rd - 800 1st - no problem

25th - 1500 1st at 1040 & 800 semi at 2255 - this is very possible & i'd say viertually certain dual qualification

then 2/7 rest & big day :

27th - 1500 semi at 1830 then 800 final at 2020

the main thing wouda been to qualify for the 1500, essentially a jog 'til 1100 & sprint ( basically it wouda amounted to a 41s "effort" ) - he woudn't have had any trouble qualifying

he'd have to have used that as a "warm -up" for the 800 final & give everything he had left

couda he still have had a solo high-1'42/low-1'43 in him ???

i think it's possible

the 1500 final was 2/7 later - just see what was left

ventolin^3 wrote:essentially a jog 'til 1100 & sprint ( basically it wouda amounted to a 41s "effort" ) - he woudn't have had any trouble qualifying

meant to 1200m

This was on this board a couple of years ago with a massive thread (now gone I think)

Even Michael Johnson got involved:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/tomfordyce/2009/04/michael_johnson_your_questions.html