Link wrote:
I had to look them up, but my PRs were 15:37, 31:52 - both on the track. (The 15:37 was en route to a 33:11 10, so, make of that what you will. I didn't run many 5ks.). Probably my best performance was a 1:09 half. My marathon PR is 2:27. If a guy with a 15:30 5k PR trains properly, he can break 2:30. And, by properly, I don't mean 70 miles/wk either. To run a marathon up to your potential requires a hell of a lot of work. If someone has broken 15 for 5 in college, and it wasn't run as a lark while normally he runs 1:47 for 800, then he ought to be thinking about an OTQ someday. Really.
Link, I have seen a lot of your posts, and I think they are great for a certain type of runner. I agree that some percentage of runners who run 15 flat in college can go on to a marathon OTQ, but the VAST majority of them will not. It's not because of a lack of will or training, but simply because their body does not respond the same way yours did to training. Slow twitch guys always look around at people who can run a decent 5k or 800m and say, man if I had that speed I would have run 2:15... well, if you had that speed chances are better that your best distance wouldn't have been the marathon.
I do agree that if a guy runs 15:30, he's got a good shot at running under 2:30. However, a lot has to go right in terms of training, weather, and just having a good day for that person to run under 2:30. For a typical hobbyjogger runner balancing a job and family, their 5k PR is going to outstrip their marathon PR simply because of the opportunity factor. If you screw up a 5k, you can run another the next week. The marathon, not so much.
Some inconclusive anecdote: I train right now with a group of runners who hover around 2:30 (some faster, some slower). I know one guy who ran 2:28 off of a 15:50 5k. He had no collegiate running experience and never really spent time trying to run a fast 5k. He is the exception. Everyone else that I run with who has broken 2:30 has run faster than 15 minutes for 5k. And there are a few guys who have run faster than 15 minutes who never put it together to run sub 2:30. Is this something strange about the group of folks I run with? Because these experiences show me that your chances of breaking 2:30 without running under 15:30 are low. Link, you yourself were likely in 15:15 shape, if you split 15:37 en route to 31:57...
In my case, I am one who has not broken 2:30 (yet!). I ran 2:38 off of an average of 50-60mpw. Inspired actually by posts from Link and also guys like HRE (not the guy who started this thread), I spent the next 4 years grinding at high mileage (for me) at 70-110mpw, doing marathon specific training, racing fall and spring and only managed 2:35--on a faster course. My 5k PR is low 15s.
I admit that I was obviously not doing things well and should have seen more improvement, but I think that I was not letting my body recover enough, chasing miles instead of doing what works for me. That is a talent, you know, being able to absorb high volumes of training. Some have it, others less so. Perhaps if I were in my mid 20s instead of 30s the outcome would have been different?
I am in my mid 30s and have not given up on the dream, but I HAVE changed my training approach. I am running fewer miles, trying to get back to that low 15 5k. Then, move from there back up to the marathon. Running lots of slow miles and tempos did not get me there.
Maybe I didn't run enough? Sure didn't FEEL that way.