What Is the Best 5K Time An Average American Could Optimally Be Trained To Run?

Asker Of Things wrote:

Congrats on the ridiculous post of the day. So let's see 11:50 5K = 3:55 pace. You're basically saying there's a person out there that either hasn't tried running or hasn't committed to it that can knock 20 secs a mile off the world record right now. So there's also a guy (or same guy) that can run the 1500 in 3:06 right?

15-17 min 5K is the average male talent? The low end of your range (15) results is saying that 50% of the population has the ability to run 14's or below? The average mile would be 4:30 or below. Ridiculous sir.

I'm kind of stupefied by this post.

You're talking about the average male human (American) essentially dedicating their life to the endeavor and you don't think they can run a rather mediocre 15-17 minute 5k?

Have you so little faith in the human body? Evolution itself saw fit to smile on the physiological capacity of homo sapiens and bestow upon us an efficiency and aptitude for such a discipline.

You guys are sick, 30 minutes at best

18 - 20 minutes

ipso facto wrote:

You're talking about the average male human (American) essentially dedicating their life to the endeavor and you don't think they can run a rather mediocre 15-17 minute 5k?

Have you so little faith in the human body? Evolution itself saw fit to smile on the physiological capacity of homo sapiens and bestow upon us an efficiency and aptitude for such a discipline.

This is interesting. I am an unathletic person. I always played the minimum minutes in rec league basketball and the minimum innings in rec league baseball. In my first season of track, I was 14 and trained my butt off to get my 200m time from 32 seconds to 29 seconds. My first 5k was about 25:00 after running 10-15 mpw for a summer. Would we not all agree that my "raw" talent was at or below average?

I have seen a lot of season-opening high school time trials and the new runners will be all over the place, but I think the median for a brand new male runner first time 5k is right around 25:00. Most, but not all, of those very average runners are going to get under 20:00 with decent training. I was dedicated and got down to 18:30 in high school.

I found a DIII team that would take me and trained hard for four years. Before and during my senior year, I was at 70 to 80 mpw and eating/sleeping right. We ran one 5k race during the season and my time was 18:30 on a course that wasn't particularly hard. I ran under 30:00 one time in the 8k. If I had continued my 70-80 mpw until I was 27, maybe I could have trained to 17:30, who knows, but I started off by saying I think I am athletically below average. Even as I sat in high school with my 18:30 PR I knew that half the boys in the class could join the team and beat me if they wanted to. Maybe AVERAGE would be right around 17:00 given the opening scenario where we live in the twilight zone where distance running is the only important thing in life for all of the human race.

So I look around a classroom now and most kids are out of shape and/or look too big for distance running, but if running became the only important thing in life, the big boned kids may never break 20:00, but every "above average" athletic kid who grew up with swimming and soccer is going to get under 17:00.

Also, OP didn't specify but I am not considering mentally and physically disabled individuals.

Maybe I need to re-read the OP, but by average, do you mean average age or average male in the 20-30 YO range?

The average male in that age group should be below 20 minutes. I considered myself a below average athlete, but I got down to 17 minutes. If I had continued training instead of doing every other sport in intramurals, I could have gotten down to 16 or even lower.

When you consider all those who were not athletic at all, the number would rise. If they all ran as much as I did or more, I think many could break 20 minutes, but probably less than half of them.

Now, if you mean the average person of any age...(I assumed that the average LR poster is ignorant of the truth that not every person in the world is in the 18-25YO range)...then that number would be much higher. If you doubt me, just consider the average time for your local 5K fun run. Those are those who actually think they can do it.

I think you guys are missing the elephant in the room here...

Take a look at any number of 5k's (the bigger the better). This is a SAMPLE of the entire US.

The median and averages would be exactly what they are currently.

What you're assuming is that everyone in the US would be motivated to be a hard worker, free from injury, eat well, etc, etc.

We KNOW this is not the case.

What is the average now? Something like 24-25?

There you have it. EOT.

fuzzy foreigner wrote:

I think you guys are missing the elephant in the room here...

Take a look at any number of 5k's (the bigger the better). This is a SAMPLE of the entire US.

The median and averages would be exactly what they are currently.

What you're assuming is that everyone in the US would be motivated to be a hard worker, free from injury, eat well, etc, etc.

We KNOW this is not the case.

What is the average now? Something like 24-25?

There you have it. EOT.

No, the real question is what could that elephant in the room run if it were motivated and trained.

wepmad wrote:

I consider myself below average genetically (had trouble running a full mile without walking at first, then when I could actually finish the distance I had trouble breaking 30 for 5k, and this was not a weight issue -- I weigh the same now as then), and after a decade of running I was able to get down to 16-mid 5K, which is pretty much where I plateaued.

Have you EVER had a genetic test done? Then you don't know which genes you do or do not have man.

I think the real question here is how many times will we see some variation of this stupid how fast could the well-trained average American male run ___ distance thread?

I'll start by throwing out a number - 14. About once a month, maybe twice in July and August during heavy traffic due to the track season.

Ok, so, let the count begin: 1.

Let me know if you remember any more in the last two weeks.

FWIW - I usually run with a local "track club" during the summer...the talent ranges from sub-16's to 26 minutes for the 5K. These are reasonably fit people, some of whom have done ultras, 50K trail runs, triathlons, and have years of running under their belts.

I'd say on a given night 50 people will show up for a workout and only 10-15 have gone under 20 minutes for the 5K.

Sub 22 would be a stretch for the average American based on observations. Reasonably fit guys can't even break 8:00 for the mile.

Consider This wrote:

I think the real question here is how many times will we see some variation of this stupid how fast could the well-trained average American male run ___ distance thread?

I'll start by throwing out a number - 14. About once a month, maybe twice in July and August during heavy traffic due to the track season.

Ok, so, let the count begin: 1.

Let me know if you remember any more in the last two weeks.

Yeah, but this is a fun thing to so. I mean, you get to put down the population for being lazy. You can feel superior for being above the imaginary average that we dream up. And, you can speculate on what the OP means and never know, since the OP never returns to clarify.

Loads of fun.

Steve Martin wrote:

Consider This wrote:

I think the real question here is how many times will we see some variation of this stupid how fast could the well-trained average American male run ___ distance thread?

I'll start by throwing out a number - 14. About once a month, maybe twice in July and August during heavy traffic due to the track season.

Ok, so, let the count begin: 1.

Let me know if you remember any more in the last two weeks.

Yeah, but this is a fun thing to so. I mean, you get to put down the population for being lazy. You can feel superior for being above the imaginary average that we dream up. And, you can speculate on what the OP means and never know, since the OP never returns to clarify.

Loads of fun.

Don't get me wrong, I like that stuff; I was just looking to feel superior to people making goofy arguments! Carry on.

I think around 18 minutes only if the person (male, 20s) is fairly dedicated and can consistently run min. of 35 to 40 miles/week. This is a realistic goal/training for most folks to juggle other aspects of life.

This is if the person is not even slightly overweight. I watched a friend who couldn't even break 20 in high school to break 19 in college. After college got the time down to low 18s.

This guy definitely didn't have a runner's physique but persevered. He told me he was actually chubby growing up.

I think of myself as average, so 18:10.

I have always been above average athletically being the best player on the team I have been on with sports such as travel soccer, AAU basketball and baseball.

When I ran my first 5k my time was 20 minutes. I don't know how much athleticism translates into running success.

I would guess the average would be 18 minutes.

We aren't talking about the average American as it is today.

I have a database of local high school stats. It is not as powerful as Milesplit's megadatabase, but it gives me an idea of what "average" really means at least in the area I live.

Out of roughly 200 senior boys each year, 54%, 49%, and 49% ran under 20:00 in their best 5k in 2011, 2010, and 2009 respectively. Overall 51% of seniors ran under 20:00 in my area in the last three years. 64% of senior boys ran under 21:00 and 39% of senior boys ran under 19:00 over the last three years.

Therefore I think 20:00 is a very good median value for high school boys who CHOOSE to run XC.

What would happen if there was no longer a choice and hypothetically everyone made running into their focus in life?

For the runners who already chose to run high school cross country, that average would drop. As it is now, not every boy works as hard as he possibly can. How many of us look back on high school and say "I thought I was working hard at the time, but I could have worked so much harder."

Add in the athletic people playing other sports and allow them to find motivation and dedication to running. That group will fill in the lower half that could run under 20:00 and much faster with training. They will drive down the average.

Add in the non-athletic people, but I'm not talking about your 30 year old beer drinking french fry and pizza eatin cigarette smoking American. I'm talking about every 13 year old boy in America that is not mentally or physically disabled. Brain wash each and every boy into devoting his life to running. The unathletic boys are going to drive the average up. It may be because they are heavier, or biomechanically deficient or any number of reasons that they will never be able to get under 20:00, but they will all try and many of them will get there.

All things considered, maybe 19:00 becomes the new 20:00 (median) by the end of high school. Now take all of those 18 year old and train them for 10 more years until they are 28. Sleep/food/money everything is taken care of for everyone. Motivation is not an issue. I would hope that close to 100% get under 20:00. The median time at your local 5k might become 17:00, but I don't think the elite scene would change very much.

I actually did some research, so I'm not just pulling a number out of my butt like most posters.

Using the results of the Race For The Cure in DC, the largest 5K in the country, I pulled the times for the men's 20-24 and 25-29 age groups. I threw out the times over 1 hour(it took 1 guy over 2 hours!), leaving me with 606 finishers.

The average for everyone was 29:29.

The 10th percentile was 22:05.

The 5th percentile was 20:39.

The 1st percentile was 16:32.

You might be able to train all 606 to reach the 10th percentile, that would be over a 7:00 improvement. I doubt you could get them to the 5th percentile. There's no way in hell you'd get them to the top percentile.

I'd say the fastest possible time an average American male in prime fitness could do would be 22:00.

Blowing.Rock Master wrote:

You might be able to train all 606 to reach the 10th percentile, that would be over a 7:00 improvement. I doubt you could get them to the 5th percentile. There's no way in hell you'd get them to the top percentile.

I'd say the fastest possible time an average American male in prime fitness could do would be 22:00.

Why wouldn't they be able to go faster?

The same reason why I couldn't make the jump from 16:04 to 13:04, their bodies are incapable of doing it.