NCAA Cross Country - Build Your Case Here For Which Team You Think Can Win It

I agree that UTEP has a good shot. At the regional meet they went out as a pack and fell off and struggled more later in the race than they would using the same strategy at sea-level. To be fair, CU ran the race well (going out easy and the top 3 moving up together throughout the race) and put on a good performance and Lomong's performance was nothing short of dominate. He opened up what looked like 100+m on the field then coasted in while Samoei was forced to out kick Jeremy Johnson. UTEP is a solid team and definitely deserves to be in the top 5 with a chance at pulling off an upset win.

I'm going with Iona. If you look at their spread from regionals it was 17 seconds for 1-5, that's damn good. It'll be close but I think the tight pack for Iona will give them the edge over all other teams. Again Colorado is in the same boat, but I'm pulling for Iona.

humidxc wrote:

CU had a 25 second spread on their scoring runners.

UTEP had 1:11. This data is from regionals.

25 seconds is solid.

And Wisco had 30 seconds if you slot their 2/3 runners before their #3 at Regionals, although if you speed up the #1s of Wisconsin and CU you are going to get a bigger spread. However, look at the spread from Iona!.

Couldn't have said it better myself, Database.

You are right, I said UTEP had under :30 at Pre-Nats, not regionals...If they run like they ran at the regional then UTEP cannot win...If they pack like Pre-Nats, they have a chance.

this is the wrong thread to ask this in but I will answer you just to humor you... UCLA, didn't have enough points. You get to NCAA's by beating team that get in. SO if you beat Oregon, Arkansas, Portland and Iona at any point in the season you would have 4 pts. So look at the teams UCLA beat during the season at prenats and other meets, see how many of those got in and count up their pt. obviously it wasn't enough. Running regioals really doesn't mean anything unless you are one of the top 2 teams who get auto. into the meet.

xc at large wrote:

this is the wrong thread to ask this in but I will answer you just to humor you... UCLA, didn't have enough points. You get to NCAA's by beating team that get in. SO if you beat Oregon, Arkansas, Portland and Iona at any point in the season you would have 4 pts. So look at the teams UCLA beat during the season at prenats and other meets, see how many of those got in and count up their pt. obviously it wasn't enough. Running regionals really doesn't mean anything unless you are one of the top 2 teams who get auto. into the meet.

I think that a big part of their problem was the way that they ran at Regionals - what place did they finish in, 6th or so? There number 4 and 5 runners were pretty far back, 150-point land at Nationals.

Database wrote:

I'm going with Iona. If you look at their spread from regionals it was 17 seconds for 1-5, that's damn good. It'll be close but I think the tight pack for Iona will give them the edge over all other teams. Again Colorado is in the same boat, but I'm pulling for Iona.

Here's the thing, as neat as that 17 2nd spread thing is, and it is a factor, it all depends on where your number one guy is coming in at. I really don't think Iona's number one guy is going to be within a stones throw of Rupp, and if Kiptoo brings his best he should be well ahead too.

Rupp and Kiptoo could have held back (more than they did)and made a 17 second gap from 1-5 at regionals too. They would have come in at 8th and 9th place, scoring 60 team points and still beating Portland (who ran out of their heads with a top 5 NCAA type performance) by 11 points. And this healthy victory comes in absolutely the most competitive region in the country.

Keep in mind that the Ducks ran without 3 guys who can be in their top 5. Diego Mercado in particular was 9th at regionals last year. He had a shoddy Pac-10's, as did his twin Danny who bounced back. If Diego is on at Nationals it will be a big swing for the Ducks.

On a side note if you look at Vin's history at Stanford, the boys always come in stronger at NCAA's then at Regionals, and that is planned. Expect the same from the Ducks.

Here is likely the guys they will be selecting from to run nationals.

Rupp:

5,000m - Outdoors - 13:30.49, Oregon Invitational, Eugene, April 20, 2007

5,000m - Indoors - 13:38.62, Husky Classic, Seattle, February 10, 2007

10,000m - Outdoors - 27:33.48 (PR), Cardinal Invitational, Stanford, Calif., April 29, 2007

World Champion Team Member - 10K

Kiptoo:

5,000 meters - 13:55.18, Stanford Invitational, March 25, 2005

10,000 meters - 29:00.52, Stanford Invitational, March 31, 2007

Ran 8:45 for 3200 in high school

Pac-10 Champ X-C - 2007

Diego:

2006-07: All-American (Cross Country). Became first Duck freshman All-American in cross country in the NCAA Championships (49th, 31:57) since 1999. Was also top freshman finisher overall in the Pac-10 (ninth, 23:39) and West Regional Championships (11th, 30:34). Also placed top 10 in the Bill Dellinger Invitational (seventh, 23:36) and Mike Hodges Invitational (fifth, 19:08). Scored for team in all five of his appearances and raced in its second position in the NCAA and regional, and ranked third in the Pac-10 and Bill Dellinger contests.

*Did not compete in outdoor and indoor track.

Kenny Klotz:

5,000m – 14:07.78 (PR), Oregon Twilight, Eugene, 5/5/07

10,000m – 29:50.26 (PR), Pac-10 Championships, Stanford, 5/12/07

Was one of busiest freshman runners for the Ducks in 2006-07, and made name at national level with U.S. and Pan American Junior titles in the 10,000m, and runner-up U.S. finishes in the 5,000m and cross country. In winter of 2007, led Americans in World Junior Cross Country Championships (56th, 27:11) in Mombasa, Kenya, a month after he finished second in the USA Junior Championships (26:07).

Diego Mercado:

Redshirted entire freshmen year.

5,000m – 14:15.46, Oregon Invitational, Eugene, 4/20/07

Scott Wall:

3,000m – Indoors – 8:02.86, Mountain Pacific Championships, Seattle, 2/24/07

5,000m – 13:57.64, Penn Relays, Philadelphia, 4/26/07

10,000m – 29:23.84, Pac-10 Championships, Stanford, 5/12/07

AJ Acosta:

1,500m - Outdoors - 3:42.40, Oregon Invitational, Eugene (4/20/07)

Mile - Indoors - 4:00.37, NCAA Last Chance Qualifier, Seattle (3/3/07)

3,000m - Indoors - 8:02.80, Mountain Pacific Championships, Seattle (2/24/07)

5,000m - Outdoors - 14:10.47, Stanford Invitational, Stanford (3/31/07)

NCAA Championships qualifier as freshman both indoors and outdoors in mile and 1,500m, respectively - UO's first to compete in both NCAA events the same year. Ran fastest indoor mile nationally among collegiate freshmen in 2007 (4:00.37) with mark that ranks third all-time for UO overall. Also a two-time U.S. junior champion in outdoor 1,500m - only the third ever to repeat the feat in the event. As a prep, was a three-time national high school champion as a senior in 2005-06 – once in cross country and twice on the track in the 1,500m and 2-mile. California state 1,600m and cross country champion, and added a pair of state runner-up honors in 3,200m and cross country.

2006-07: All-American (Mile) / NCAA Qualifier (1,500m).

Carlos Trujillo:

3,000m – Indoors - 8:16.34 (PR), Husky Collegiate, Seattle, 2/10/07

5,000m – 14:06.71 (PR), Oregon Invitational, Eugene, 4/20/07

Andrew Wheating:

Mile – Indoors – 4:04.77, Husky Collegiate, Seattle, 2/10/07

*Ran 800-1500 last spring but has been a high scorer for the Ducks this fall

It's feasable that the 7th man for the ducks could be a 14-14:10 5K runner, and their number one is a 27:33 10K runner. It's hard for me to expect Iona's 5 to come in stronger than Oregon's 5.

The only team that can do it in my mind with the help of a sloppy course is Colorado.

I think all of the top UW guys can run low 14s and many will be in the 13s or equivalent (e.g., Bethke 3000SC/Mile, Miller mile (but I think he has a problem of some sort and will not be racing), Lacy has already improved from 9:26/3200 to 8:18/3000 and is much better this fall, beating guys on his team that he was not beating last year). Peacock might get sub-14 this year, but I am not sure. I do think that Oregon has to be given the edge over Wisconsin at this point.

I have huge respect for Wisco and Colorado and Iona. But, when looking at my brofromanothamo's post, it's clear that Oregon is pretty interchangable from 3-9 without any drop off. You got people in that group who could run #1 for many other teams in that field and Vin is the master of not letting that be a liability to those athletes. That mentality coupled with that talent tends to win championships.

However it turns out, you have to admit that the team title race more interesting than it's been in quite a long time.

I wish I could afford to take Monday off and go.

mufafa wrote:

I have huge respect for Wisco and Colorado and Iona. But, when looking at my brofromanothamo's post, it's clear that Oregon is pretty interchangable from 3-9 without any drop off. You got people in that group who could run #1 for many other teams in that field and Vin is the master of not letting that be a liability to those athletes. That mentality coupled with that talent tends to win championships.

However it turns out, you have to admit that the team title race more interesting than it's been in quite a long time.

I wish I could afford to take Monday off and go.

Interesting point, Scott Wall ran 13:57 last spring and would probably be viewed as the Ducks 4-6th man if they fielded their strongest team.

I looked at the Iona roster and none of their top 5 guys from the Regional Meet (and supposedly that is their top 5) broke 14:00 in the last couple years. The websited doesn't really list lifetime bests so it's not clear if they ever have, but they certainly didn't do it in the last couple track seasons. There are no track results for Okuti though (2nd man a regionals) despite 2 seasons of xc results, so I'm not sure what that means.

Wall ran his 13:57 at Penn Relays, the same venue where Iona's Andrew Ledwith (2nd man at pre-nationals, 3rd man at regionals)ran 14:05.

One other point, the score at Pre-Nationals was:

1. Northern Arizona 124 152. Iona College 136 43. California 157 NR

It appears Iona ran with 4 of it's 5 in that race (holding out Kiplagat - 5th man at regionals) and beat Cal by 21 points. Cal was 4th at the West regional, 65 points behind Oregon who held out Diego Mercado (likely number 3 man) and 2 others who have scored for the ducks this season.

I think Iona is a very impressive team. But I think people picking them over Oregon have not looked at the details very well. Winning a weak conference and region with a small spread doesn't ever indicate national championship material. Winning the most difficult conference and the most difficult region (while holding runners out) certainly does.

IMO if Iona had all 5 run the kind of race that Portland's top runners did last weekend, AND Oregon had 6 of its 7 run very, VERY flat, Iona could get them. Anything other than that and it can't happen. I would say Colorado has a better chance, and then NAU because they should get very low points from Lamong and they won Pre-Nats. NCAA's will push their lower guys further back though and they won't finish as high.

I'd say if things go 80% normal:

Oregon

Colorado

NAU

Iona

and hoping for Portland here

Chase Pizzonia was 86th, while #4 was 18th. Put in Kiplagat at 20th and they reduce their total 70 and have a monster win over NAU as well as the fastest average time. Changing a guy for Oregon will not help them that much, but for Iona it is the difference between 10th and 1 as Nationals, because 86th at PreNats is going to mean almost 200 at Nationals. Thus, Iona requires all of their guys to have a good race, or at least have no one have a bad race.

I do hope that one or more have some problems, but I am a known Wisconsin fan (I think that they will place well, but everything will have to work right for them to win). Note, however, I did post before the 2005 race that they could do as well as about 35 points (you can search for my posts in the days before the race).

From the start, I am a huge Ducks fan. I expect that they should win the men's and be top 5 in the women's race.

The only thing I could see as being a possible derailment is that in both races that I've watched the men (Pac-10s & Regionals), the Ducks get out as a group at the front. When the racing heats up and Galen and Shadrack go to another gear, the Duck pack disolves and they seem to make backward progress. Could they do better by letting their 3-7 runners start more conservatively and pick up places over the last kilometers?

Will conditions in Indy be favorable for fast racing from the start? Will conditions favor the teams that come from behind?

colorado will take it again, they looked unimpressive at pre-nats, but Mark Wetmore knows that pre-nats mean nothing. he will have the buffaloes ready to go on race day and i think they will be tough to beat. oregon will probably also run well, and rupp will probably get the title, but i think CU is better

pre841 wrote:

From the start, I am a huge Ducks fan. I expect that they should win the men's and be top 5 in the women's race.

The only thing I could see as being a possible derailment is that in both races that I've watched the men (Pac-10s & Regionals), the Ducks get out as a group at the front. When the racing heats up and Galen and Shadrack go to another gear, the Duck pack disolves and they seem to make backward progress. Could they do better by letting their 3-7 runners start more conservatively and pick up places over the last kilometers?

Will conditions in Indy be favorable for fast racing from the start? Will conditions favor the teams that come from behind?

Good point, but the one thing I would point out is that Vin's teams at Stanford did the same thing. They'd get out strong at Pac-10's and Regionals and then have a few guys from Oregon and a guy or two from several other teams in the race start picking them off at the end. Yet come NCAA's vin would have 5 in the top 20.

I think what happens for most teams is they really have to get up for conference and regionals mentally and they have to back off in training physically. So when they get to nationals it is a week or two too late for them. Vin's guys, with the deep squad and smart coaching, are able to get through those meets successfully without taking their eye off the big prize - the NCAA meet. They back off later than most and that's why they tend to come on strong compared to most of the teams in their region.

I'd bet on the same thing occuring next week.

NAU will win and Coach heins will be the coach of the year! You heard it here!

Lomong will EASILY win. The only question is by how much - which is something that he will decide.

NAU will have two in the top 10. The 3rd and 4th runners will be in 30-35 team points and the 5th man will be at 45-50 team points. That is a team score of 120-145 points. Is that enough? I think so in this year of parity. No one is a super team but NAU will be the best.

I do not think that CU will have their 5th man high enough. Oregon has a ton of depth and a great (but not as good 1-2). I just do not think that their great depth will come through.

There is no team that can get under 100 points this year and NAU wins. Go Jacks!

Here's my case

OREGON!!

why?

This year- undefeated

Galen Rupp - National Collegiate 10k record holder

Kiptoo - Pac 10 Champion

Aj Acosta - Footlocker National Champion

Diego Mercado - Mt. Sac record holder

Danny Mercado - Diego's twin, enough said

Joaquin Chapa - simply put, his father is Rudy Chapa, whom was the biggest high school badass to ever live and owns the high school 10k record that will NEVER be broken, but little chapa represents just as well

And then there's these guys... Kenny Klotz, Scott Wall, oh and did I mention GALEN RUPP?

Too talented, far too well coached, have access to every trick in the book because they are the pride of Nike. NO they will not choke, when's the last time Stanford choked under Lanana? Best 1-2 punch, and if their third man has a bad race, it's ok because their 7th man can do just as well.

Put it in the books and print it in solid black and white

Oregon Ducks - 2007 NCAA D1 Cross Country National Champions

Here's my case

TEXAS!!

why?

Kicks ass - Manzano

I don't CU can win with a "pick up the stragglers" approach this year. I could be completely wrong, but the course is shaping up to run fast. There will be fewer runners who will get beat up over the course of 10K. If they are to win, they'll have to be more aggressive early. See you on the course Monday!