You can see that on my last post, I corrected myself, regarding Webb being 5-6 yards from El G. with a lap to go.
Uberjam,
I will believe that 1.08 rule, when the majority of runners prove it. It is not like the 10 high profile runners I mentioned on my earlier post, or many others are within a second of that rule....They were all ranging from 3-6 seconds away. This is an unproven rule based on assumption. Over the course of a career, an elite runner will have the chance to hit the kind of mile that they are capable of...but it rarely seems to be consistent with the 1.08 rule.
Indoor Top 5 Performances1500 Meters 3:31.18 Hicham El Guerrouj (MOR) '97 3:31.76 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) '98 3:32.11 Laban Rotich (KEN) '98 3:33.17 Venuste Niyongabo (BUR) '98 3:33.32 Andres Diaz (SPA) '99 1 Mile 3:48.45 Hicham El Guerrouj (MOR) '97 3:49.78 Eamonn Coghlan (IRL) '83 3:50.70 Noureddine Morceli (ALG) '93 3:50.94 Marcus O'Sullivan (IRL) '88 3:51.20 Ray Flynn (IRL) '83Ratios:1.08181.08511.08761.08341.0838This data doesn't prove the rule, but it far from disproves it.
ttc wrote:
I Like Stats,
You can see that on my last post, I corrected myself, regarding Webb being 5-6 yards from El G. with a lap to go.
Uberjam,
I will believe that 1.08 rule, when the majority of runners prove it. It is not like the 10 high profile runners I mentioned on my earlier post, or many others are within a second of that rule....They were all ranging from 3-6 seconds away. This is an unproven rule based on assumption. Over the course of a career, an elite runner will have the chance to hit the kind of mile that they are capable of...but it rarely seems to be consistent with the 1.08 rule.
Also I should point out the dates of the second through fifth best performances. The ratios would almost certainly be lower (more in the 1.0800 range) if the mile was run more often competitively at the top level.
I did not see your correction until after I last posted. Duly noted.
I believe the 1.08 rule is mostly based on the ratios of the two distances in question, not a statistical comparison of various times run for the distances. One mile divided by 1500 meters gives a ratio of 1.0729. To account for slowing (or speeding up, if converting from mile to 1500), this is rounded to 1.08.
If the conversion factor were 20 seconds, this would imply the runner was covering the 109.35 meters (the difference between 1500 and mile) in about 20 seconds. Thats 109.35 meters / 20 seconds = 5.47 meters per second, or 73.1 seconds per 400. Thats a lot slower that four minute mile pace.
I agree with the others who have posted claiming that the perceived "difference" is due to the relative infrequency of the mile being raced. For example, over the last three outdoor seasons, El G and Lagat combined have run 50 1500 meter races, but only 16 mile races.
The top times/runners in history DO support the 1.08 rule and are the exceptions, but most elite runners are not that.
I will not waste your times in repeating...but do you really think that Paul McMullen, Seneca Lassiter, Steve Holman, Michael Stember, Gabe Jennings, Jason Pyrah and Bryan Berryhill were fit enough to run between 3:47-3:52 even when they hit their 1500m pr's? I do not and that is really my whole point.
If the mile were a championship event and they had to qualify for Worlds they would have hit that range.
3:33 is 1:53.6 pace. They would have to slow down to 1:55.5 880 or 1:54.7 800 pace to run 3:51 for the mile. If they can stretch 1:53 to 1500m they can stretch 1:54 to a mile.
They would have to slow down to 1:55.5 880 or 1:54.7 800 pace to run 3:51 for the mile.
There you go again, "assuming" conversions. Who says a 1:55.5 880 is the same as a 1:54.7 800. Obviously you haven't gotten the point of ttc's posts, that people slow down more than would be expected in those extra meters.
We're not talking about JUST Kevin, but of his opinion of this being a general rule for all National and World Class milers. I stated before that guys at HIS LEVEL are the only ones who can make the 1.08 rule consistently true.
It would be nice to see his opinion on whether the crop of American milers who have run 3:35-3:36 (Stember, Pyrah, etc..) were equally ready to run 3:52-3:53 with the same opportunity. That's where I say no. The top 5-10 world milers can make the rule come true, but most of the rest can not and have not.
The rule is not the "17 second rule." It is the "1.08 rule." So with each passing second, the "17 seconds" of a guy that runs 3:26 becomes larger and larger. A person that runs 3:50 for 1500m has 18.4 seconds added on to their time if you use the 1.08 rule. I agree with you that far too many people think that their mile equivalent time is just their 1500m time plus 17 seconds.....I'm always like "Sooo, you would have picked the pace up after 1500m huh? Suuuure."
According to my calculations, based on research and the relative intensity that a runner can maintain, based on the duration of time spent running, the following are equal:
3:27.58 1500 (3:42.71 mile pace if keep the same pace for 1609.344m -- 1mile in meters) = 3:44.04 mile (due to slow down for extra distance beyond 1500) = 3:42.63 1600
(Add 15.13sec if keep pace, add 16.46 sec for true mile)
I was in a race a few years back in which we hit 1500m in 3:46 or so and I want to say Marc Carroll of Ireland still ran under 4:00 I was 2 or so seconds back! The charts give you an idea but if you are a wicked good kicker, you really only need a 3:45 1500m split to get the job done and break 4!
I agree, 17-20 seconds depending upon pace, however, I seem to remember Seb Coe once covering the distance (accutrack @ both 1500 m & mile finish line) in some godlike time of :14.7 or :15.1 or a similar time. Could this be possible? Does anyone remember this?
x 1500m time by 1.08 has long been the accepted conversion at elite level to acquire a mile time equivalence, as other posters on this thread have already pointed out. And the inverse is obviously to divide one's mile time by 1.08 to get a 1500m equivalent.
In Coe's 3rd mile WR in Brussels 81, he covered the 109.344m from the 1500m mark (3:32.93) to the mile finish (3:47.33) in 14.4. L'Equipe magazine actually had a stats man take each 100m split in that race and his last 100m was recorded (and all splits published in their next edition) as 13.1. In that race, despite a last 400m of 55.1, he only really changed pace as he entered the straight and stated in the post race interview that he purposely held back until the last 100m because Boit was only 6m behind him at the bell. Had he gone for the record at the bell he suggested he would have run 3:46.5 that night.
He had actually intended breaking Ovett's 1500m WR (3:31.36) en route, having had his previous attempt at the record squandered earlier in the season in Stockholm with some diabolical pace making.
Despite missing the 1500m WR in the Brussels mile, again due to very inefficient pacing in the first 3 laps (55.3, 58.0, 58.6 quarters), by 1.57secs, the speed with which he finished and the 1500m conversion time for his finishing mile time of 3:47.33, suggests that it would have been a possibility with more economical pacing that night.
Coe's 3:47.33 / 1.08 = 3:30.49 - some 0.87secs faster than Ovett's then WR.
Ovett's 1500m WR was inferior to Coe's mile in 81 - 3:31.36 x 1.08 = 3:48.27
No doubt both were capable of significantly faster with more economical pacing like the current crop of elite milers enjoy with the lazer lights and even laps.
I "competed" against Marcus O'sullivan - "competed" as in on the track at the same time- he smoked me!!
I ran for Harvard, class of '87, then for Nike for 1 year....
My PB for 1500m was 3:42.2 electronic in sanctioned race (no thousands back in the day)
Never rand a mile my last 3 years bc we all wanted to make Olympic qualifying times and everything was meters.
........ so..... when someone says, "Did you break a 4:00 minute mile...? " I really want to say yes (I;ll be 60 in a week , so be nice) - but probably should say no.
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