Both Tadesse and Wanjiru have the potential, definitely. I think if they ran in the same race at their current fitness they could take it under 59:00, simply by virtue of not running alone for most of the closing miles. I think Wanjiru would have the wheels to run away in the last 3k. It's exciting that speed has gradually become a more and more important part of world-class 13.1 and 26.2 mile racing.
Think there are a few contenders for the first sub-59:
- Tadesse (With better pacing than his Great North Run... probably went out a bit too fast)
- Sihine (Class act... We'll get an idea of his potential at the half marathon champs)
- Dinkessa (26.30 10k... Got to be a contender over the half...We'll also see his potential in Edmonton)
- Geb (Undisputed class act, recent 10 mile world best)
- Wanjiru (Precocious talent. 59:16 mostly solo run)
- Tergat (Most sub 60's ever, including 59.10 this year at Lisbon.... Age catching up, but he owns this distance.... )
- Mathathi (only 20.... 44.51 10 miles last year)
And of course, if he decided to run a half (maybe next year, with no major championships)... Bekele
I always reckon that the net downhill aside,and there are a few uphills along the way, the presence of a tailwind on a mainly point to point course can have a big impact on the GNR times. No disrespect to all the legends and semi-legends that someone has dug up from the UK all timers, those are wicked times, but I suspect many of those 1/2 Mar times incl big 10m PBs en route and then same pace for another 5k.
It would be nice to see a list of those where the finish is the same as the start line.
I think the fact that the race is run with the prevailing wind behind is a big factor. I saw the weather forecast on Saturday and it had a nice tailwind so things were always going to be quick. In fairness to Tadesse though he ran a very long way on his own - it was an awesome performance for someone who's largely been a track/XC guy up to now
It's actually a very tough course. The first and last downhills are very hard on the legs. There is a lot of climbing on the course.
Ayone who runs just a few seconds too quick in that first downhill mile pays for it. Last year's winner Berhanu ran a course record of 59.37, but this year he blew up big time.
Tadesse run was absoulutely incredible, going through 10K in an unbelieveable 27.37 and ten miles in 44.34, just ten seconds slower than Gebreselassie's recent World best time.
Miles 8-13.1 are very tough. And Tadesse slowed dramatically but still held on to beat Tergat's Lisbon best by one second.
Tergat still holds the record for a loop course with 59.17 in Milan a few years ago. Tergat also ran 58.49 on a slightly short Milan course.
Can anyone confirm - was Wanjiru's recent 59.16 run in Rotterdam on a loop course or an out and back course?
Any prospect of a rest and perhaps a chance to spend some of his US$10,000 (about £5,540) in time bonuses, seems unlikely, though, with the half-marathon World Championships to be held on Saturday week in Edmonton, Canada. “He needs to rest but the (Eritrean) Federation will want him to run — and the Federation is boss,” Garcia said.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7713-1786984,00.html
do you think 2 weeks rest would be enough to give sileshi (sehen) and abebe (dinkessa)a hard race?
Having completed this course on the day the record was broken i can guarantee it is not a "down hill course"!
the course has a 2 mile uphill at the start and then again at the end. i didn't see too many down hill bits on my run and there was no wind until the end and then the last mile is a headwind up the seafront not a tailwind.
all in all with the temperature on the day this is not an easy course and it must be remembered that 4 people died this year. so before you class htis as an easy course please remeber the above.
Having completed this course on the day the record was broken i can guarantee it is not a "down hill course"!
the course has a 2 mile uphill at the start and then again at the end. i didn't see too many down hill bits on my run and there was no wind until the end and then the last mile is a headwind up the seafront not a tailwind.
all in all with the temperature on the day this is not an easy course and it must be remembered that 4 people died this year. so before you class this as an easy course please remeber the above.
undaunted wrote:
Can anyone confirm - was Wanjiru's recent 59.16 run in Rotterdam on a loop course or an out and back course?
Think it's within the rules for a loop. i.e. As the crow flies, the start and finish are separated by less that 30% of the total race distance.
Have to agree that its a tough course, anyone running between 8 and 12 miles would know that it defnitely cancels out the gradual downhill of the first 2 miles, theer are numerous long prolonged climbs on teh course, from the Tyne Bridge to Felling By Pass, from Gateshead Stadium to Heworth, from the Black Bull to White Mare Pool, the dreaded John Reid Road, and then the climb through the nook to Marsden which is very tough, the lack of wind on Sunday led to problems with people suffering in the heat and humidity. It was hardly ideal... this is no 'easy option'
Anyone know how short the course was when Tergat ran 58:49?
i think 49M
it will be a little bit difficult for tadesse as sileshi specialy is good at road race. any ways it will be an interesting compitions. do not forget also kenyan and tanzinians
I spoke with an Eritrean today and he told me that he saw highlights of the race on an Eritrean channel he gets on his satellite package.
The race was shown in Britain on BBC, as it is every year, someone will have a copy trackhead. Tadesse was absolutely flying for the first ten miles, and then hanging on, with a big sprint at the end when he saw 58 minutes on the clock.
After he crossed the line he was exhaused but happy, smiling in between grimaces and gasps, looking like he was going to puke.
Berhanu really died in the last few miles, finishing in 60.40, just over a minute slower than last year.
Interestingly, Berhanu said before the race that he was going for the record. Catherine Ndereba also paid for starting too fast, after saying that she was going for 65 minutes.
what can i say tadesse performance was incridable.
However, one thing is certain he need a rest for edmonton as most of the athletes came with fresh energy.
tadesse have a bright future, specialy in marthon.
is there online-tv where i can follow up the race?
for those of you who understand tigrinia, here is zersenay-special at beilul.com