Rupp capable of 12'45 ???

I don't think Rupp and Salazar follow the sort of training protocol that calls for sharpening up 1500m speed significantly as they approach race time. They have, for years, been working on speed work at shorter distances in indoor and early in the outdoot year, then moving towards the specific endurance for 10000m as they get closer to goal race. I think it is more likely, based on history and training paradigm that Rupp loses a little off of his short speed as he gains 10000m fitness.

run the numbers for 3:33 and 26:40 and that's your answer.

i've been saying all along he's knocking on 12:50's door. I predict he's capable of 12:49.

8:20 at 3200

10:24 at 4k

11:24 at 4400

12:23 at 4800

:27

12:50

it'd be the race of his life.

pure conjecture wrote:run the numbers for 3:33 and 26:40 and that's your answer.

3'33/26'40 ->

4'49.5

7'25.8

12'47.2

that's not bad !

i certainly think he'' be 3'33/26'40 at bare worst later this year

Jeez, Vent, let him run 12:52 that would be superb... You expect 12:45? 7:23??? Come on, you gotta be kidding.

52.43 wrote:Jeez, Vent, let him run 12:52 that would be superb... You expect 12:45? 7:23??? Come on, you gotta be kidding.

you over-estimate 7'23 & 12'45

yes, great times, but not unapproachable

7'23 :

hicham ran that with a suicidal 2'26 or 2'27 2nd k which killed him in the end - even pace & he wouda gone 7'20/7'21

morceli/saidi-thief both ran 7'25 after jogging 2k in 5'00+ with 2'24/2'25 finish !!!

tell me what those wouda been at even pace like komen ??

12'45 :

cherono is best example

he ran 12'48 in big race v hicham

they were on for 12'45 at 3k but hicham got damn scared with cherono breathing down his neck & slowed it to a crawl from then until the last lap

it didn't work as cherono blasted him off the last bend !

cherono was worth well below 12'45 that day, maybe 12'42/12'43

go ask canova who was his actual coach

i'm just calling the race as i saw it

just don't put clockings like 7'23/12'45 on pedestals to be worshipped...

maybe even sub-12:40!!!

____________________________________________________________

No. Even a time under 12:50 would be pushing it, and I am a Rupp fan.

I mean 12:40 and you are knocking out 60.8 laps. That is freakish.

Rupp is very good, but he is not 12:45 calibre....yet.

ventolin^3 wrote:

7'23 :

hicham ran that with a suicidal 2'26 or 2'27 2nd k which killed him in the end - even pace & he wouda gone 7'20/7'21

Am I missing something? If you run perfectly even 2:27.00 kilometer splits you will run a 7:21.00 3k.

Mr. Obvious wrote:puts it up here as if it is a definitive source.

well

it gives

3'29.74 / 12'39.74 as

7'20.18

obviously, just a lucky shot...

ventolin^3 wrote:

Mr. Obvious wrote:puts it up here as if it is a definitive source.

well

it gives

3'29.74 / 12'39.74 as

7'20.18

obviously, just a lucky shot...

You would be a bit more convincing if you took a few hundred randomly selected athletes and analyzed the accuracy of your, ahem, calculator based on their times.

To pick out one data point and say "see, it works" is almost beyond-belief stupid.

might be wejo wrote:Am I missing something? If you run perfectly even 2:27.00 kilometer splits you will run a 7:21.00 3k.

the 1st km was something like 2'28 & hicham was so frustrated he was "shooing" on the wabbit in 2nd k

he only sped it up in last part of the 2nd k & that was too fast a move - you had to watch it to understand

it was obvious he was going to have helluva struggle to keep it going for another 2.5 laps after that & he did crumble in last lap

( which was still a surprise, but even he was human & 7'20/7'21 wouda been his limit that day ( primarily because i don't think his endurance lasted "perfectly" to 3k off 1500 training - more like 7'18/7'19 if it had - you woud expect a 3'26.00 guy to smash whatever the 3k wr was if his endurance lasted to 3k ))

just don't put clockings like 7'23/12'45 on pedestals to be worshipped

___________________________________________________________

Why not. In the case of the 5km time you are talking about stringing three 4:06 miles together. The 7:23 time for 3km means you go through in 3:57 for the mile assuming even splits. Any runner who can do that deserves a pedestal. Rupp is good but not on this pedestal.

Vent, I think people would take your calculator a lot more seriously if you wrote your posts in complete sentences with proper grammar and actually explained what you are talking about. Seriously, it is incredibly annoying to read pretty much anything you write on letsrun because of the way you present it. Apologies if English isn't your native language, but if it is or you're fluent get it together.

Gonna have to call BS wrote:You would be a bit more convincing if you took a few hundred randomly selected athletes and analyzed the accuracy of calculator based on their times.

To pick out one data point and say "see, it works" is almost beyond-belief stupid.

how about this guy with some decent 2k/3ks ( check his positions on all-time list - he ran his 3k off a 5'00+ split ) ?

49.5/1'45.6 ->

3'29.3

4'45.9

7'23.2

12'49.1

maybe just a 2nd lucky shot...

I feel like I've seen the entire video on youtube before. Someone posted it here back in the winter time. It showed shots of El Guerrouj before the race, and he looked very nervous and worked up. I think that contributed to him dying substantially in the last 800 meters (something you just don't see el g do)

You get pilloried for this stuff because the numbers are fudged. You obviously get a big kick out of peoples' reactions to your posts, so here you go buddy.

You honestly thinking that Galen Rupp is capable of running 12:44? I mean really, dude, this is troll material. He has run 12:58 rigging up like a marionette in the last 100m, which indicates his speed is lacking in a big way in comparison to the top Africans. I say that Rupp is maxed out at something like 12:55, he just doesn't even have the speed to be able to run 4:47. That is a non-sensical,make-believe, fairy tale assumption. You obviously don't understand how fast that really is. The same goes for 7:23...that is what El G ran a few days before he ran 4:44, the same year he ran 3:43 for one mile and 3:27 at the world championships. But here you have 51.3, 1:48.0, 3:31, and here it comes wait for it...12:44?????? Show me where has run 1:48.0?

MORCELI ran 4:47 and 7:25. If Galen Rupp can run 4:47 and 7:23, don't you think he could go faster than 3:31 for 1500m? More like 3:28 AT LEAST.

With your formula complete with times that Rupp has never even been close to (3:31 and 3:34 are not close to each other in terms of fitness), you are essentially saying that he is at Geb, El G, Morceli, Komen, and Bekele's level. All of these men were capable for going sub 49 for 400m from a standing start, with the exception of Komen, who still could have done sub 50 (the guy ran 3:29 and 3:46 for 1500m and one mile.) . Rupp will never have that kind of speed, not to be a jerk, but he'll never close in 53 in a 5k race under 13:00. Morceli did it 51 in the rain.

Be realistic.

Why do you always tell athletes to wait until the last lap or 200 and then kick? Ventolin^3 would be the first to tell you that a 27 second last 200 would not be the most efficient way to break 12:50.

Mo Farah ran 12:53 last year with a 53 last lap. People see 12:53 and think "Oh, he's the best? Only 12:53? The world record is so far out of reach". It is out of reach, but fvcking jogging 11.5 laps and destroying the last one isn't helping the chase.

[quote51.8 / 1'48.8 ->

3'32.84

4'49.19

7'25.18

12'45.93

26'36.85

51.3 / 1'48.0 ->

3'31.68

4'47.85

7'23.61

12'44.23

26'35.96[/quote]

This calculations look awesome. I'd love to see Rupp run these times. I'm just wondering where you got that 400 time from? And if it was a little slower or faster wouldn't that have drastic effects on his 10k? 5k?

He is extremely talented, but lets be realistic. I would say a sub 13 5k is most likely a sure thing. I would say 12:55 would be more realistic.