It's looking like a very strong year. The Americans absolutely have their hands full if they want to win. We have:
-Markos Geneti, one of the 2:04 Ethiopians from Dubai
-Cheruiyot the younger, the guy won it in 2:05:50 (which some people debated about whether it was the beset performance ever)
-Wesley Korir, Chicago champ who is still a Kenyan citizen
-Micah Kogo, 59:07 guy debuting...
Lots of other top Americans, Canada/Australia/South Sudan represented too.
Moses Mosop 2:03:06 (Boston, 2011) Kenya
Gebre Gebremariam 2:04:53 (Boston, 2011) Ethiopia
Markos Geneti 2:04:54 (Dubai, 2012) Ethiopia
Ryan Hall 2:04:58 (Boston, 2011) USA
Levy Matebo 2:05:16 (Frankfurt, 2011) Kenya
Shami Abdullah Dawit 2:05:42 (Dubai, 2012) Ethiopia
Dickson Chumba 2:05:46 (Eindhoven, 2012) CR Kenya
Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot 2:05:52 (Boston, 2010) Kenya
Wesley Korir 2:06:15 (Chicago, 2011) Kenya
Raji Assefa 2:06:24 (Paris, 2012) Ethiopia
Abdi Abdirahman 2:08:56 (Chicago, 2006) USA
Meb Keflezighi 2:09:08 (Houston, 2012) USA
Jeffrey Hunt 2:11:00 (Beppu, 2010) Australia
Jason Hartmann 2:11:06 (Chicago, 2010) USA
Eric Gillis 2:11:28 (Toronto, 2011) Canada
Fernando Cabada 2:11:53 (Houston, 2012) USA
Guor Marial 2:12:55 (San Diego, 2012) NR South Sudan
Robin Watson 2:13:37 (Rotterdam, 2012) Canada
Micah Kogo, debut 59:07 (South Shields, 2012)
Lucas Rotich, debut 59:44 (Den Haag, 2011)
Aselefech Mergia 2:19:31 (Dubai, 2012) CR Ethiopia
Meseret Hailu Debele 2:21:09 (Amsterdam, 2012) CR Ethiopia
Mamitu Daska 2:21:59 (Frankfurt, 2011) Ethiopia
Rita Jeptoo 2:22:04 (Chicago, 2012) Kenya
Sharon Cherop 2:22:39 (Dubai, 2012) Kenya
Madai Pérez 2:22:59 (Chicago, 2006) NR Mexico
Alemita Abera Begna 2:23:14 (Houston, 2012) Ethiopia
Tetiana Gamera-Shmyrko 2:24:32 (London, 2012) Ukraine
Kara Goucher 2:24:52 (Boston, 2011) USA
Shalane Flanagan 2:25:38 (Houston, 2012) USA
Ana Dulce Félix 2:25:40 (NYC, 2011) Portugal
Yolanda Caballero 2:26:17 (Boston, 2011) Colombia
Sabrina Mockenhaupt 2:26:21 (Berlin, 2010) Germany
Diana Chepkemoi Sigei 2:26:53 (Dubai, 2011) Kenya
Karolina Jarzynska 2:27:16 (Yokohama, 2011) Poland
Serena Burla 2:28:27 (Seoul, 2012) USA
Stephanie Rothstein Bruce 2:29:35 (Houston, 2011) USA
René Kalmer 2:29:59 (Yokohama, 2011) RSA
Diane Nukuri-Johnson 2:30:13 (London, 2012) NR Burundi
Alissa McKaig 2:31:56 (Houston, 2012) USA
I'm too lazy to look it up, but have any of the recent Boston fields looked this good ahead of time? Of course we all know that in every major marathon the field looks great on paper but only a fraction of guys actually run to form, but you have to think it will be really tough for an American to get top 3. Unless Renato really worked miracles on Hall already it'll be a hard one to win.
Just as I predicted: everyone who didn't get into London. A few have been's and some from the short course Dubai 2012 Marathon.
Mosop: hasn't raced since he lost in Rotterdam last year to a noname
Gebre: hasn't race in 2012
Geneti: Dubai short course, need a say more?
Matebo: ok, serious contender. Anyway, virtually unknown
Dawit: another Dubai short course
Womens side not much better, discount Mergia (Dubai short course) and you got a mid 2:21, 6min slower than WR and 3min slower than the worlds best (who will be running in London).
About as short as the Chinese Games 1993 track.
It is not a coincidence that pretty much everyone who ran there, recorded a PR.
Does anything in life make you happy? Ever?
I bet when the London field comes out, it could be criticized in the same way.
2012 was not the year for the top marathoners. They all either bombed out at the "Kenyan trials" weekend, bombed out at the Olympics, or bombed out before and after.
2012 was the year of:
KIPROTICH Stephen, Olympic Gold --> will run London
KIRUI Abel, Olympic Silver --> will run London
KIPROTICH Wilson Kipsang, OB, ballz performance in London --> will run London
STOP, blow the whistle. Did anyone notice Guor Marial has run 2:12. Can you say DOPING. Another person in Arizona using drugs tisk tisk
Korir was not the Chicago champ. He was the Boston champ last year and was 2nd in Chicago the year before.
Geb Geb ran the Olympic 10,000m.
I don't want to go inside a preview, also because I'm personally interested with some athletes.
But I ask you : why do you continue to speak about Dubai as "short race" ?
I was there last year, and I had several athletes running their PB. I followed the race within a car of the organisation, and I had the splits for every km : everything was perfect.
In all my life, I never found a marathon with so perfect conditions : weather very dry, no wind, temperature of 12° at the start and 12° at the end, perfect tarmac, no turns. Under technical point of view, better than Berlin and Eindhoven, that in my opinion are the fastest courses in the World.
I give you some detail :
Yemane Adhane (winners in Rotterdam, with a very strong wind, on 15.04 with 2:04:48) in Dubai ran 2:06:29
Dawitt Shami (7th in Dubai in 2:05:42) on 29.04 won in Hamburg, course more hard, in 2:05:58 after running between 30 and 40 km in 28:57
Deressa Chimsa (8th in Dubai together Shami in 2:05:42) later won Prague (13.05) in 2:06:25, won silver medal in WHMCh and, 3 weeks later, was 2nd in Frankfurt (very close Makau) in 2:06:52 on 28.10
Aberu Kebede (5th in Dubai with her PB of 2:20:33) later won Berlin (30.09) improving again to 2:20:30
Atsede Baysa (8th in Dubai in 2:23:13) won Chicago on 7.10 in 2:22:03.
Since several of these athletes use my programs (Shami, Chimsa and Aberu Kebede), and I know very well their real shape in Dubai and later, I explain again that the conditions, absolutely perfect, gave an advantage of about 1:30 compared with the conditions of the past, when humidity became very high during the last 40' of the race, and there was wind against during the last 7-8 km (one year a lot of rain with Haile trying the WR, who had to slow down a lot at the end).
Weather conditions have an influence on the performances very much higher than the course. And always you must know the specific data for every marathon, before jumping at wrong conclusions.