With his recent performances?
I honestly haven't the slightest clue.
His improvement curve in the past 3 months has been so steep that it's unrealistic.
Naturally, all runners can cut off a certain percentage of their time from the beginning to the peak of their seasons, but Webb's is probably the largest in any professional runner EVER.
He went from 3:53 --> 3:43 --> 3:39 in THREE Races
If he stagnates now, he has no chance. If he somehow manages to keep this up, then he's most definitely in.
Don't forget the fact that he doubled after that 3:39. He may not have planned on staying in the race, but he certainly knew he was rabbiting and would have saved something in the tank for it.
I honestly don't know what his chances are. No one does because no one knows who is going to be running the 15 at the trials against him. Even so, I say Webb makes the team. I said he would after his 3:54. Why? With the possible exception of Lagat and Jim Ryun, Webb is the most talented middle distance runner the U.S. has ever had. He's healthy and not too old. His coach seems to know what he's doing - especially managing Webb psychologically. Not only will Webb make the team. We'll see Webb in the finals in London.
He needs the classic benchmark of a 3:35 1500 to have any chance against the talent he will face at the trials. Remember, Manazano is now a 3:50 miler. Lomong has the A standard due to his 3:53 mile last year, and Centos is a WC medalists. Without 3:35 speed it is just not possible to make the team.
You have to look at Manzano, Centro, Lomong and Wheating and ask if Webb can out kick two of them.
Torrence will be quite difficult to out kick as well.
Russell Brown, Will Leer and Miles Batty will also put up a fight.
Making it to the final will be a challenge.
If he gets to the finals, he's going to have to take over at 700m because no one wlse will.
This isn't 2004, running away from Charlie Gruber and Rob Myers.
This is the deepest US men's 1500 ever, even without Lagat.
The final is going to be loaded. I think Webb's bet is to run splits of something like
65 --> controlling the race and hogging lane 1 into lane 2.
this might put crap in the guys legs doing a hard downshift.
1 Matthew Centrowitz Oregon 3:47.63
2 Bernard Lagat Nike 3:47.96
3 Leonel Manzano Nike 3:48.16
4 Andrew Wheating Oregon TC Elite 3:48.19
5 William Leer Nike 3:48.20
6 David Torrence Nike 3:48.31
7 Lopez Lomong Nike 3:48.54
8 Dorian Ulrey Arkansas 3:49.02
9 Kyle Miller Nike 3:49.38
10 Jordan McNamara Oregon TC Elite 3:49.61
11 AJ Acosta Oregon 3:50.02
12 Evan Jager Oregon TC Elite 3:50.11
13 Michael Hammond Virginia Tech 3:55.69
This is not even close to being the deepest field ever. In the mid 80s the US had Steve Scott, Jim Spivey, Sydney Maree, Tim Byers, and Tod Harbour. Scott, Spivey, Byers, and Maree where ranked in the IAAF top ten. Things are certainly better than they were a decade ago.
I am excited to see now much Webb will improve but we need to remember that in the past Webb was not the best tactical racer. Even if he has a seed time in the top 3 he could still easily miss.
This certainly doesn't match Scott, Spivey and Maree for a top three.
I don't think Byers and Harbor coincided with Spivey. I know they were not at the '84 Trials.
This year you have six guys who have run sub 3:35 in Webb, Wheating, Lomong, Manzano, Centrowitz and Torrence, all potentially in the same race. Plus Russell Brown who has run 3:35 high.
That's what I am talking about with depth.
are you sure on this? the A standard is 3.35 and thats the equivalent of about a 3:51-52. unless he hit the 1500m in that time and then DIED the last 109m, im pretty sure he doesnt have it especially since russell brown ran in the same race and finished in 3:51 yet still missed the standar (i think he hit 1500m at 3:36 lowish then kicked hard the last 109m, the kenyans in front of him hit the 1500m in about 3:34 high if im remember correctly.)
just wondering, because if he does already have it then thats a big game changer
There is no chance Webb beats Centro, Manzano, Lomong, or Torrence. We don't know what kind of shape Brown or Wheating are in, but both of them are extremely good. There will be collegiates like Batty that will be in the mix. Also, word is that Ulrey is training with the Salazar group now (according to Ritz's RW article). He'll be fit. Jordan McNamara also had a tremendous year last year.
Webb hasn't really contended in any of his races yet either. There's no sign that he'll do so against the country's best.
Lomong had the second fastest 1500m time for an American last year behind Lagat, 3:33.59 in July.
He has the A standard.
Manzano, Wheating and Centro also have the standard.
Torrence is 0.16s shy of the standard.
The last time Webb hit 3:35.50 or better was 2007.
He's still 3.5s away. I still give him a decent shot at getting the Olympic standard.
Top 3 is going to take some gears.
It'll be close. I have no doubt Alan will be in 3:32-3:33 shape by the trials, and the only person I see being possibly in better shape than that is Lomong (assuming his 5k means he's fitter in the 1500 than he ever has been before).
The question is will he have the kick to beat guys who will also be in 3:32-3:34 shape like Wheating, Manzano, Torrence, and Centro who have good kicks. So far Alan has not had a good kick this season, but obviously he is behind the curve in fitness right now and is quickly catching up. Since Alan is playing a catch up game right now he won't be able to just run away from these guys with superior fitness, so it's crucial that he sets himself up in 2nd or 3rd place with 400 or 500 to go and starts hammering it there and not leave it to the last 100 to separate because he probably won't have that kind of closing speed by the trials.
With how Alan's fitness is improving there is no doubt he'll hit the A standard for the Olympics, now he has to focus on developing that kick or else he has no chance at even making the Olympics.