Ritz will NOT make olympic team in 5 or 10

Wsl

RE: Ritz will NOT make olympic team in 5 or 10 4/25/2012 1:45PM - in reply to The Stache

CAUGHT IN A WEBB? RITZ CRACKED? AND SPRINTSANITY!!!
5 Exciting Sub-Plots Developing Pre-London

As we race towards the sunrise of the 2012 London Olympic Games, there already seems to be some head-scratching in the run community. With American prodigies attempting to cement legacies come July, the “what have you done for me lately” run society explores some amazing sub-plots -

1. Is Dathan Ritzenhein really going to miss the Olympics? Sure, Ritz has run 12:56.33 and 27:22.28, great enough for # 3 and # 6 all-time, respectively… but after watching his 28:21 victory at Stanford, he eerily reminded us of an aging Adam Goucher. There was Ritz, grinding out 66’s and then kicking a 66 to finish off a mediocre field. The pop seemed gone, his arm carriage exaggerated, his head digging for that something extra. He has time left, but with the likes of American Record holder Galen Rupp (26:48.00), Bobby Curtis (27:24.67), Tim Nelson (27:28.19), and Matt Tegenkamp (27:28.22) all healthy, he has his work cut out for him…

2. And speaking of Galen Rupp, will he ever defeat Bernard Lagat over 5,000m? The way the silky-smooth Lagat is running as of late, the answer is probably not, but I think Rupp has it in him… he has the strength and most importantly, he has developed the speed. He just needs to use it at the right time, much like El Guerrouj mastered in 2004 or Bekele in 2007. But most definitely not like Alan Webb did in the 2005 World Championships… but if Ritz doesn’t make it in the 10,000m, might we see him in the 5000m? He has run 12:56, but with the emergence of Chris Derrick (13:19.61i), Andrew Bumbalough (13:16), Tegenkamp, and if Solinsky (12:55, # 2 all-time) returns in time, Ritz is going to have to battle those formidable foes PLUS Lagat and Rupp for a spot on the 5000m squad! Can anyone say Ed Moran times three! Imagine Ritz 4th at the Marathon Trials, 4th in the 10,000m and 4th in the 5000m! Ugh… back to the Marathon!

3. Ah, Alan Webb. The ultimate prodigy that grinded away at his potential, accomplished what we all thought was the improbable (American Record Mile in 3:46.91), did the unthinkable (see above) and currently would struggle to medal at the Oregon High School 1500m Outdoor Final. Until George Mason, where he pulled off a confidence-building 3:43.28. Webb is one of the all-time greats, almost like Jordan in his Wizards’ years, where he was past his prime but had the potential to drop 50pts on you out of the blue. If anyone can work down to the about 3:33-shape needed to make the team, it’s Webb with his # 3 all-time 3:30.54 personal best. But the field at the Trials will be stacked, with Centrowitz, Wheating (3:30.90), Lomong (3:32.20), and Manzano (3:32.27)… and who else may surface come July, Miles Batty? Remember when we all thought German Fernandez would be a factor over 1500m/5000m by 2012???

4. So, when did running a 3200m and coming through the mile in about 4:30 start producing sub-8:50 performances for 3200m? I guess once every American kid decided to start racing like the Africans. Everyone is so confident in their kicks nowadays. Ten seconds off PR pace? No worries, I’ll just close in 1:57 for my final 800m and make it up. The most recent edition of the Arcadia 3200m was brilliant. A huge pack running a fast pace, a brazen breakaway, a breakthrough performance (Montoya), and a gutsy kick produced a race for the ages. Kids that look like wrestlers are running 9:00 and we’ll never know their names. Unbelievable.

5. I just want to keep this on everyone’s radar: Sprintsanity. Before the last World Championships, we would never have the anxious doubt that perhaps Usain Bolt might false start… that there might not be another miraculous Olympics. But not just the uncertainty of the start, there is a new Jamaican stalwart in the sprints and he is running times that could defeat the great Bolt: Yohan Blake. Blake’s ungodly 19.21 performance was an eye-opener, and he amazingly seems to have a faster top-end than Bolt. What kind of times might the Olympics bring if Bolt has to chase Blake or is pushed to the line without any chest thumping at 80m? Plus, the kid opened in 9.90 into a +1.6mph headwind last weekend.

And what of Tyson Gay? He seemingly implodes himself after every race, pushing his body to a spontaneous combustion by the finish line and is the only man recently capable of beating Bolt in his prime… will he be ready? Or will he be over-shadowed by the amazing comeback of supreme talent gone wrong, Justin Gatlin. Justin Gatlin is doing something Marion Jones should have done… put your head down, stay clean (hopefully), and mount a comeback and prove those doubters that you couldn’t do this clean. Imagine Gatlin running down Bolt come London? I’m not sure Gatlin can get there, but it’s not improbable. He’s already within .01 of his best 60m time. And then there is the medalist, the count on me to show up in the final Walter Dix. If Dix can stay healthy, have a great build-up, he may once again challenge the likes of Bolt and Blake.

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