| abt737 |
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I am marathoning in a little over 4 weeks. I did my first in 2010 off of 50-65 mpw - made it through the half in 1:34 and 20 miles in 2:25, but blew up to finish in 3:16. I bumped up my mileage to 70-85 mpw with a peak of 87. Long runs of 16-22. I tempoed a 10k tonight in 37:30 under control - not redlining. I haven't raced or tempoed a half, but I think I could do 1:25 pretty easily, especially when fresh and not in my heaviest training. I think sub 3 is feasible. Am I on base? |
| critic in chief |
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Yes, you probably can run sub3. Funny how often people ask this exact question -- can I run sub 3 based on XYZ workouts. My answer is almost always no. But in your case, I'm a yes. I would like to more about your tempo and speed training, but your mileage and 10k times say sub3 is very doable. I would still say take it easy for the first half - no faster than 1:28. Also, hope that it isn't 85 degrees. |
| marathondude |
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Chances look good. |
| Kicker |
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Theoretically you are capable of easily breaking three hours. More like 2:55. But you still have to run the distance. Try even pace through twenty and see what happens. |
| thinking back to my 3 |
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Looks good to me. I first broke 3 off of 30-40mpw and a 10k PR of 37:15, so your chances seem a lot better than mine were that glorious day. |
| Macho man |
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My pr is 16:40 in the 5k and run 80-90 miles a week and I ran 3:16 in the marathon. It will be tough! |
| critic in chief |
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Impressive and rare. I have spoken with dozens of sub3 runners, and in the real world (not letsrun), it is quite unusual for someone to run sub3 on 30-40 miles a week. Usually the only people who can do this are younger male runners who often have a collegiate running background i.e., they were talented enough to run in college. Many on letsrun claim to have done sub3 on minimal miles. I think this reflects that letsrun doesn't draw a cross section of runners. "Thinking back to my 3," I'm curious to know your background when you ran your sub3 on 30-40 miles per week. |
| abt737 |
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Thanks for the posts. I got through 22 miles in good shape yesterday - I basically follow the Pfitz plan - start at 20% slower than race pace, get to 10% slower halfway in and did the last 5 at mp. It was pretty easy, so I think that's a good sign for things to come when I am fully rested. This is my last heavy week before I taper - I think sub 3 will happen provided it isn't obscenely hot. Thanks again. |
| Synapse |
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Wow! Dude with that 5K time that is blazing fast. No doubt you should have been able to break 3 hours. Sounds like you probably did one of several things preventing you. 1. You don't do long runs. 2. You are grossly overweight for your height and/or too muscular upper body that is. 3. you didn't taper properly. |
| prometheus_bounding |
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Wow! Dude with that 5K time that is blazing fast. No doubt you should have been able to break 3 hours. Sounds like you probably did one of several things preventing you. 1. You don't do long runs. 2. You are grossly overweight for your height and/or too muscular upper body that is. 3. you didn't taper properly.[/quote] Yeah that 5k pb, assuming it's up-to-date, is way faster than what you would need to go sub 3... they seem wildly in-congruent. |
| hks321 |
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"Impressive and rare. I have spoken with dozens of sub3 runners, and in the real world (not letsrun), it is quite unusual for someone to run sub3 on 30-40 miles a week." This is definitely doable if you have a little bit good running genes. There are a lot of people that can do this. But you're right, it will not work for most people. If one can do 2:30 off that much training, that is impressive. Probably could make the trials with real training. |
| hks321 |
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"Yeah that 5k pb, assuming it's up-to-date, is way faster than what you would need to go sub 3... they seem wildly in-congruent." He could be a big muscular guy with a 5K being his reach for the distance. The type that can probably run 47, 48 400s. |
| hks321 |
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"but I think I could do 1:25 pretty easily, especially when fresh and not in my heaviest training." I think you're definitely ready. Your bump in mileage should carry you through the last 6 miles. Just don't go crazy in the early miles. Negative split do work in case you have lot left in the trunk. You can step up the pace last 6 miles if you think you left too much on the table. |
| Guppy |
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Since you blew up last time around 20 miles, I suggest running 3:00 pace until then if that is your goal. If you feel good after that, go. You might under acheive a little but you will break 3:00, which is better than running 2:55 pace for 20 miles then blowing up to 3:03 or something. If you want to get a good indication of what you can do, do a long run of 16 miles at marathon pace no less than 2 weeks out from your marathon. If you can handle that without feeling terrible you should be able to hold on through another 10 miles. I think you can do sub 3:00 given similar race conditions to last year. |
| abt737 |
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Thanks for all the additional posts. After this week's long run, my long run when I begin my first week of taper is 16. I will make that a mp run. Things are clicking and I am excited. Thank you all for the help. |
| bangalangadanga |
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37:30 easy predicts 1:22 easy. if you aren't that confident in your half, that makes me think you aren't geared toward the marathon. using 1:25 as a predictor, I predict 3:05. you will go out in 1:28 and blow up hard. don't let that happen. |