15ker
15k as marathon predictor 3/18/2012 6:37PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
How good a predictor is my 15k PR? I ran 1:08 flat at Gate in the middle of my marathon training program, and I'm planning to run my third marathon on May 6 in New Jersey. What can I expect?
15k X 3 = marathon
RE: 15k as marathon predictor 3/18/2012 8:32PM - in reply to 15ker Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
multiple 15k time by 3 = marathon

Using my Boilermaker time (hot, hilly) for each of the past 3 years, multiply by 3 time as been within 1 minute all 3 years. Hold fairly true for elites too (42' X 3 = 2:06)
Mick Lovin
RE: 15k as marathon predictor 3/19/2012 4:34AM - in reply to 15k X 3 = marathon Reply | Return to Index | Report Post

15k X 3 = marathon wrote:

multiple 15k time by 3 = marathon

Using my Boilermaker time (hot, hilly) for each of the past 3 years, multiply by 3 time as been within 1 minute all 3 years. Hold fairly true for elites too (42' X 3 = 2:06)

_____________________________

This is what I was going to say, but a little less detailed.
I was going to say that since a marathon is about 42.25 k's. Then accounting for fatigue, you could come pretty close to a predicted time of a complete marathon from a 15k by multiplying by 3. You must consider you would go through that first 15k in a marathon , and so forth.