Yeah, I know that there's still a week(end) of indoor t&f remaining, but I figured it might be useful to preemptively get an outdoor thread started--otherwise some folks might start posting outdoor stuff on the indoor thread and we'd have two threads going (the way we did at the beginning of indoor, actually).
I follow only the Cornell squads closely; but just looking at their rosters, it appears the Big Red will be valid contenders for both Heps outdoor titles. Here's a little preview of their prospects:
The men will likely miss Bruno Hortelano-Roig, who's prepping for the OG for Spain, but still have plenty of talent for the open sprints and 4x100 (which they won at last year's Heps without him). They should be okay in the 400 and 4x4, and more than hold their own in the middle distances. RoJo always seems to get about a half-dozen guys around 30min for the 10,000, and the Big Red should do some distance scoring in the outdoor meet--despite the Ivies' extraordinary level of talent in the longer events--though they may not have a contender in the steeple.
All four jumps should continue productive for Cornell's men. They have a lot of firepower in the throws (remember that Mozia was mostly considered a discus man in high school!), though maybe with a hole in the javelin. They should be very strong in the high hurdles and decathlon, as demonstrated indoors, and return the men who went 1-2-4 in the 400H.
Cornell's women should also have great event coverage. Their prospects in the sprints are solid, though it appears they'll still be relying heavily on Hewitt in the shorter open races and 4x1; and their 400 depth, though it should again make them the favorites in the 4x4, has yet to produce a contender for individual honors. They should get more than their share of hurdles points, as well, with a chance to score very well (as usual) in the longer race.
The Ivy middle- and longer-distance races will be crazy this year (the 4x800 could be extraordinary), but the Red have a wealth of talent there, including three of the top four returners in the steeple. They could also add some top athletes who raced sparingly, or not at all, indoors.
The Big Red should have multiple scorers in each of the jumps, though perhaps not individual contenders in most. They're somewhat thin in the throws, but with very high-quality performers in most events should still score quite well. The heptathlon, which doesn't seem to have the participation that we see in their men's multi-event squad, is probably their only event that's of some concern.
As indoors, the men's outdoor meet should be a Cornell-Princeton contest, with several squads aiming for the spoiler role that Columbia played at Barton Hall. Brown (third last year, with most of its scoring from underclassmen) and Harvard (with its top individual trackmen and throwing crew) could have a real tussle with the Lions. The champions? Too close to call. When the indoor season started, Princeton loomed as an easy Heps winner; Cornell ended up giving them all they could handle. Outdoors, I think the same situation obtains.
For the women, there are once again multiple real contenders for the championship. Columbia should cover the outdoor events somewhat better than in previous years, and has the stars (do they get Hale back?) to repeat the indoor win. Virtually every other Ivy team, however, has to be given at least a chance for the women's win. Cornell (my narrow pick) will contend, but so should Princeton, particularly if they return to full strength. Harvard has the potential to score many points outdoors; Dartmouth could collect a lot of points in several events; Brown graduated some scorers from last year's third-place squad, but most return; and Penn graduated very few, and should surprise a lot of people.
PS Is the outdoor squad limit 37? 39? Would someone please remind me?
I'm assuming there haven't been any catastrophic injuries, departures, etc. since it's only been a week since Heps, so the only real discussion can be looking at the event switched from indoor to outdoor and figuring out who is helped and who is hurt.
The men's side is relatively easy; since it's just a duel meet you just need to look at the two contenders.
60 -> 100 and 200
Adding short sprints is Princeton's worst nightmare, and I'm sure the Cornell guys are salivating at a chance to avenge their lackluster performance in the 60 indoors
400 and 500 -> Just 400
Princeton will likely move Dinkins up to the 800, so it would just be Hopkins and Kearny as indoor scorers for Princeton. Hopkins will likely win, but Cornell could have Rabbitt, Thomas, and Freitas all score.
800 and 1000 -> Just 800
Princeton gains Dinkins on the move-up. Likely to go 1-2 with Callahan if that's indeed the roster they enter. Cornell should be able to grab 2-3 of the lower-scoring spots to negate some of Princeton's advantage
3K and 5K -> 3KSC, 5K, and 10K
Inverse of the short sprints. Cornell must be dreading the possibility of conceding three distance events outdoors (after conceding two indoors). Princeton's depth on the distance side must have them licking their chops over the 10K.
Belden and McCollough should more or less cancel each other out.
Hep -> Dec
The extra three events might decrease Huber's effectiveness in his open events, but Sheldon, Princeton's only scorer indoors, will likely be hurt by the two additional throwing events.
I assume no drastic changes from mile -> 1500 and weight -> hammer
So incoming post from a former thrower, don't say you have not been warned....
On the whole Mens Cornell vs Princeton throws debate, here is my two cents:
Shot: Cornell scores 14-16 (Mozia & Belden) depending on Belden and the Harvard (Glauser & Brode) kids. Princeton scores 2-4 (Park).
Hammer: Cornell scores 2-6 (Fiedler). There are some major holes in Mens Hammer with 4 departing Seniors from last year. Princeton 10 (McCullough) LOCKED DOWN. If I recall correctly, Glauser from Harvard threw the High School hammer a solid 200+, so he should be a threat to place if he transitions well. Lipinsky from Brown will possibly lock down second depending on others development throughout the season.
Disc: Cornell scores 14-16 (Mozia & Belden), again depending on Belden and the Harvard kids. If Mozia transitions in the Disc as well as he did in the Shot for indoors, he should be throwing at least 55 meters and have first place a lock. That may change next year with Penn's recruit, Sam Mattis... Princeton scores 4-6 (McCullough) depending on what Levine from Yale does.
Jav: Both blank there as far as I know. Keeling from Brown seems like the early favorite based on last years performance. Again, another Mens throwing area that was vacated by many solid seniors. I think I remember Harvard recruiting a 220ish Jav guy, so that may be a fly in the ointment for Brown. Otherwise, there were some younger guys from Penn and Brown. Cornell or Princeton could make up some MAJOR points if they could get a Jav thrower.
So, Cornell outscores Princeton in the throws by at least 12 points in my opinion. Harvard once again does VERY well in the throws, with Brown and Yale not far behind.
Girls side of things are more tricky, as teams like Brown and Harvard have strong throws squads. I see Cornell picking up some major points vs. Columbia, but who knows how things will turn out.
Shot: Putting Imbesi from Cornell down for another win in the shot with Buhr from Brown close behind. Columbia loses much needed points here to Cornell. Guessing another 11 points for Cornell, just like Indoors, and 14 for Brown, and Harvard and Dartmouth each picking up 2-4.
Hammer: Craker from Brown should be a lock, with Adabelle (Harvard) and Rossi (Cornell) fighting for second. Columbia could pick up some much needed points here if Okwara can throw as well as she did indoor. Brown 10, Harvard and Cornell 6-8, with the rest a crapshoot until we see some outdoor results.
Disc: Brown most likely goes 1,2 with Buhr and Craker. Harvard should score well, with Dartmouth picking up a few points as well. Cornell lost their big Senior, so we will see if their young coach can develop someone in time.
Jav: One of *THE BEST* event groups in the Ivy League this year. I cannot stress how excited I am see this one fill out. Imbesi from Cornell will be back from her injury last year, and from what people told me at Indoor Heps, she will be gunning for over 50 meters from the get-go. Cornell also brought on a Freshman, Reed, who threw about 45 meters in High School. And lets not forget their sleeper Dombrowski, who improved by 20 feet last year to snag 4th at Heps. Harvard returns with a super solid Sophomore and Imbesi's major competition in Hannah Meyer, who was the top Jav thrower last year at just under 47 meters. Brown brings back Al-Hassan who threw just under 45 meters, and Penn brings back Wheeler as well, just under 45 meters. I am predicting that to place at Heps in Women's Javelin this year, you will need to throw at LEAST 44 meters (about 144 feet). There are only a couple other conferences in the nation that can boast those kinds of Women's Jav numbers.
Very excited. Too bad the throwing area at Penn is out in the middle of freaking nowhere....
Sorry, no Hale for outdoors as I believe she is out for the entire year.
I love that throwing analysis. Thank you so much for that shazz! I hope to be able to watch some of the throws this year at Outdoor Heps (provided I can find the throwing areas)... isn't the javelin on the other side of the highway from the track?
So Bruno is out to train for Olympics? Good to know so I can keep an eye out for his name in any results. Does anyone know if he's been doing anything for indoors (i.e. qualifying for Indoor WCs)?
Speaking of people wanting to train for Olympics, any word on Harvard's Adam Cotton? He did a 3k and ran some legs of relays from what I had seen in indoors and there wasn't much of a presence at Indoor Heps, particularly after rolling his ankle during XC... perhaps he is trying to save himself for a potentially long outdoor season?
Also, is there any word on any newcomers that will make their debut for outdoors?
Yep, the Jav area is out with the throwing events as well. If you look up Bower Field in Philly on Google Maps and switch to the Earth view, looking just south past the railroads and along the river, you can see a bit of Jav runway. That is the throwing area. I heard they have overhauled all the cages and it is much nicer with seating and removed one of the baseball diamonds to make more room, but have yet to go there myself.
HA! It's labeled "Heps throwing fields", from 2009.
Funny, I seem to remember them being closer in 2006...
Dinkins pulled a hamstring at the Heps and hobbled in 4 x 400 relay. He did run on their DMR team at Notre Dame and that could have been difference for them qualifying for NCs as Dinkins is way faster than Williams.
Cornell has two 800 guys under 1:50 indoors. One of them, Admirand is a real beast. He led the Heps 800 before finishing second to Callahan. He won the IC4A 800 and then came back to anchor the 4 x 800 squad to the fastest time in the U.S. College list with another sub-1:50 leg.
Cornell also put two guys in the finals of the IC4A, neither of whom were in individual events at the indoor Heps.
Obviously I have my bias but Cornell showed a lot more mid-D strength at the ICs than at the Heps, where there is the team number cap.
Okay, I caught an error in my earlier post. I said that Cornell had three of the top four SC returners; it's actually two of three. Though the Big Red recruited several distance frosh from NYS (where the steeplechase is a standard event), I don't know of any specific SC credentials among their rookies. Like most of the Ivies, CU does a pretty good job of "manufacturing" steeplers anyway.
A look at Cornell's huge (100+) women's roster reminds me that they had a number of solid recruits--field-eventers, in particular--who did not compete (or very little) indoors. If these women are in/training with the program, a few could make an immediate impact outdoors (similar to that of the freshman SPer DeFord, who came on strong at the end of indoors and threw the disc ~42m in high school).
I believe you meant DID NOT run at Notre Dame in regards to Dinkins.
Wow--just 36, with all those added events? Man, imagine trying to cover 23 events with only 36 people!
Then imagine having to pick just one out of three people on your roster. Whoa. No wonder coaches make the big dough.
Well it is also challenging for the smaller squads too as they need to figure out how to best utilize people among all of those events (particularly for their top performers). Dartmouth this past indoors was a good example of this as they placed third behind 2 deep squads of Cornell and Columbia for the women.
Despite the facetious tone of my previous post (coaches? "big dough"?!?), the more I think about this, the tougher the task appears. (And yes, I realize the men have only 22 events outdoors, to the women's 23--why on Earth do the women still run a flat 3,000?)
a) There are three relays. At best, you might get a couple of people to double the 4x1 and 4x4, but that's still at least 10 athletes spoken for.
b) There are 11 so-called "technique" events: four jumps, four throws, two hurdles, multi. There will be plenty of doubling, even some tripling, of competitors in there, I realize; but to get the events *well* covered, you'd probably need to average two different individuals apiece.
So that's another 22 people, added to the 10-12 you're using on relays.
c)Now you're at 32-34, which leaves you 2-4 slots for distance runners (who typically wouldn't be doing any technique events or relays), distributed among three (men) or four (women) races.
Which works out...as long as *all* your personnel in the 100/200/400/800/1500 are also part of your relay/tech-event crews.
I realize that this isn't how things work out in reality--field-eventers and hurdlers end up on relays, etc.--but this is maybe the first time I've really understood how tough it must be to try to cover everything.
...Or to accept that you have little or no chance of scoring in some events, write those off, and then hope for a better chance of scoring, or scoring higher, with more (relatively) fresh people in the remaining events, and try to steal the championship with good performances in those.
Decisions, decisions. Seriously, it can't be easy!
"No rest for the weary" dept.--
Now that their long indoor season (eleven meet weekends, dating back to December) is over, I looked to see how much of a break the Columbia and Cornell athletes get before outdoor competition begins.
About five days, apparently: their first outdoor meet is on the 17th.
Wow. BITD there used to be a real break between indoor and outdoor. Of course, the fall semester also used to end around the last week of January, and the spring semester some time around the beginning of June.
[Anybody remember when Penn Relays marked the end of the *early*-season contests (mostly relay meets), to be followed by a month of dual/invitational meets, then the championship season?]
1) It's a little easier for me to see why, in general, college track doesn't get as many of the casual fans as it used to. Face it, for most of the college meets in the Northeast, the weather just *sucks*.
2) Though I find teams' competing with partial squads, typically at nonscoring meets, *intensely* annoying--and one of the forces propelling the demise of collegiate track and field programs, IMHO--it's a little easier for me to understand, when I realize that indoor/outdoor competition is scheduled for (at least in Cornell's case) 18-20 consecutive weekends; and I will no longer rant about partial squads (well, outdoors, anyway!).
[Yes, I do realize that many athletes on the teams don't participate in the early-season "foreign" (i.e. outside the Northeast) meets, and that a majority don't compete on the IC4A/NCAA weekends, either.
[Nevertheless, I can understand coaches' wanting to give the athletes who *do* compete in those championships, as well as the athletes who could benefit from a few weeks' emphasis just on conditioning, some time off in March.]
An outsider looking in here - I am just wondering if any other sport in the Ivy League requires this much time commitment from its athletes? For the distance guys, they are competing fall, winter and spring, and traveling to meets all 3 seasons. Do the programs put a limit on how many meets per academic year an athlete can be expected to be required to participate in? I am guessing football players and crew guys and maybe others would practice year round, but only compete and travel one season. Many of these distance athletes must be taking intense academic loads as well, at these elite schools. My own opinion, if it were me or my kid, would be to not do the indoor season, get a physical and mental break from it, catch up on school work, do base miles, and have a fun and successful outdoor season. Comments from anyone who has been there? Does it wear you down?