| Industree |
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Basically would have to PR to get a bronze, based on Olympic history and relevant to the world-leading time in March, he would need to be running sub-1:45.9 right now to even be considered a favorite for a medal. 1988 800m Men Paul Ereng GOLD KEN 1:43.45 1988 Joaquim Cruz SILVER BRA 1:43.90 1988 Saïd Aouita BRONZE MAR 1:44.06 1992 800m Men William Tanui GOLD KEN 1:43.66 1992 Nixon Kiprotich SILVER KEN 1:43.70 1992 Johnny Gray BRONZE USA 1:43.97 1996 800m Men Vebjørn Rodal GOLD NOR 1:42.58 1996 Hezekiel Sepeng SILVER RSA 1:42.74 1996 Fred Onyancha BRONZE KEN 1:42.79 2000 800m Men Nils Schumann GOLD GER 1:45.08 2000 Wilson Kipketer SILVER DEN 1:45.14 2000 Aissa Djabir Said-Guerni BRONZE ALG 1:45.16 2004 800m Men Yuriy Borzakovskiy GOLD RUS 1:44.45 2004 Mbulaeni Mulaudzi SILVER RSA 1:44.61 2004 Wilson Kipketer BRONZE DEN 1:44.65 2008 800m Men Wilfred Bungei GOLD KEN 1:44.65 2008 Ismail AhmedIsmail SILVER SUD 1:44.70 2008 Alfred Yego BRONZE KEN 1:44.82 |
| almost always? |
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Explain how you came to that conclusion? |
| Insider Information |
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"... to even be considered a favorite for a medal." He is not considered a favorite for a medal. This is news to you? He is considered a favorite to place somewhere between 5th and 8th. That's just the way it is. |
| John Birch |
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based on his inept performances in '08 semi (running in 3rd lane on last turn) and again in the final last year he is unlikely to ever medal |
| runn |
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Unless he makes it to the final and finishes in the top 3, that's how anyone can medal. |
| s.mouse |
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Good stats...I had forgotten about aouita's bronze in '88. He showed up with all that tape over the back of his right leg. Forgot about Cruz's silver too. Hard to believe that kipketer never struck gold... |
| foolproof |
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He can win by using the same strategy that won world's in 2009, the olympics in 2008, and that won silver at worlds in 2007. Take it out hard so that you lead after 200m. Then, slow down drastically; at this point in the race, the guy in 2nd doesn't want to pass because he thinks he's in perfect position, and no one behing him passes because they are either boxed or have to run too wide. Then with 300m to go, hit the jets, aiming to retain the lead for as long as possible. Result is a medal. The only reason Gary Reed didn't win gold in 2007 was because he let some guy (can't remember who) pass him with 150m to go. This strategy also worked for Muladzi in 2009 when he struggled to get into the final. In fact, it is even similar to what Rudisha did in 2011, although he ran a lot faster in the earlier parts of the race. |
| Sorry Symmonds. |
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It's highly unlikely Rudisha will let Symmonds lead. If he does, it's unlikely that he'll have more in the tank than Rudisha. By time time Rudisha peaks properly and such, he's probably a mid-high 44 second 400 guy. Symmonds is probably a 46 high-47 low. Rudisha's cruise time is Symmonds PR. He'd be very, very lucky to get 5th, especially with Kszscot and Aman, who are both much younger and showing more talent. I would love for him to get Bronze at the least, but I just don't see it happening. |
| coach d |
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Symmonds didn't miss it by that much last year. But there were 5 people in the world faster than him last year, so he finished about where you'd expect. Our last male 800 medalist was Rich Kenah in 1997, and he was a 1:43-low guy. Johnny Gray was a 1:42 guy. KD and Nick at 1:44.0 +/- a little aren't quite fast enough. Remember that it isn't just one race, but three races in 6 days, and if people have to use up too many resources to get to the final (because they're racing faster people), they just run out of gas in the final--if they get there. You need 45 second 400 speed (or close) now to medal in the 800, and I think Jock is the only one coming up who has that. I think he gets a medal some time in the next 4 years. |
| Skuttlebutt |
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If someone falls down ahead of him. And takes out a few runners. |
| Sorry Symmonds. |
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I said he'd be lucky to get 5th because Aman and Ksczscot have emerged as bigger players than they were in 2011. I predict he'll get 3rd this year at the OT's to Jock and Andrews, in that order. |
| pathetic01 |
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I'm sorry but Jock is not the only US 800 runner who can split 45.xx in a 4x4...Casimir loxsom splits 45.xx all the time, Jacob Hernandez splits 45.xx, Tevan Everette split 45.xx, I'm sure Abda splits 45.xx since he won big 10s in a 46 in the 400m indoors. Numerous US 800 runners split 45/46...Jock is the only one who goes out fast because he knows no other way of racing. It's worked well enough to get him to be one of the top in the NCAA, and a berth to the world championships. I don't think it will keep working on the international scene though. He was burnt out and didn't make it out of the prelim at worlds, good experience for him...but if you wan to talk about medals, he should have at least made it to the semi's. Maybe in 2016 we can talk of him being a medal threat, he'd be lucky to make the team this year and he'd be the next Tim Tebow/Jeremy Lin to make the 2012 Olympic final. |
| pathetic01 |
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Oh and I effing hate when people bring up the fact that Nick Symmonds only runs 46/47...does anybody actually know what Nick can run in a 400? He never runs them?! Obviously he has speed if he can run 1:43. I wouldn't be surprised if he could run 45.xx |
| Tardfergusen |
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woah woah woah man, you forgot about DQ's total game changer |
| Proof without fooldom |
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Priceless |