So, any guesses?
1. BOWDOIN 9:52.27#
2. MIT 9:52.45#
3. WABASH 9:53.49#
4. MIDDLEBURY 9:56.07#
5. WIS. -STEVENS POINT 9:57.78
6. BATES 9:58.10#
7. NORTH CENTRAL 10:00.68
8. WIS. LA CROSSE 10:01.09
9. TUFTS 10:01.64#
10. TCNJ 10:01.81#
11. GENESEO ST. 10:01.89#
12. NYU 10:02.87#
13. WIS. -EAU CLAIRE 10:03.11
Those are the top times according to DirectAthletics, with teams who've repeated (MIT, Bates, and why isn't Bowdoin listed more than once?) removed.
It is looking primarily like a battle of who the best New England team is at this point. Wabash obviously look very solid with all their legs having run very fast times in their open races... But I'm guessing they will be tired from running trials/finals for individual events.
Schmidt should be tired from the 5k (it is before the DMR I'm assuming).
Hannon will be tired from the Mile, especially if he makes finals. Same goes for Hillard and Rose.
Not so familiar with the Wisconsin guys, but it seems like a number of them will also be running individual events.
Bates' anchor looked great closing in on Bowdoin this weekend, but then again Hillard looked almost comfortable and Horowitz blew the field away in the 1200.
Those are my top 3. Times are up in the air since lots of people will be tired from other races and such.
What do you guys think?
They only take 10 teams (13 in individual events) and for some reason you missed elizabethtown right behind bates at 9:59.80#. that makes tufts the last team in
Honestly it's difficult to even predict who will run individual events, who will run the DMR, and who will run individual events in addition to the DMR. Last year a lot of the milers bailed to run only the DMR. This year will probably be similar.
4) North Central
Bowdoin- Hillard is ranked 9th in the mile and doesn't really have a shot at the win. I'm predicting Hillard doesn't run the mile at Nats and Bowdoin goes for the win in the DMR. Horowitz will definitely open it up in the 12. The other three just need to hold the lead.
MIT- Hannon is a much stronger anchor that Hillard. The problem is Hannon is ranked 4th in the mile and has a shot a placing high individually. But he hasn't doubled well historically, so if MIT decides to run him in both the mile and DMR they might bomb. On the other hand if MIT just goes for the win in the DMR, I think they would beat Bowdoin. Hillard doesn't seem like someone that would get the baton in first at Nats and then drop a 4:08-4:09 to run away with it... and Hannon runs very well when he is chasing people. My prediction is that MIT goes for the win in the DMR and wins.
Wabash- McCarty will be the person to beat in the mile (assuming Scheetz drops). I'm guessing McCarthy and Waterman will primarily focus on just individual events and won't run a DMR.
Stevens-Point- It really comes down to what Sullivan decides to run. He'd do well in any of the events he's qualified for. I'm predicting he does the individual mile and the anchor leg of the DMR and will place high in both.
NCC- has run well on a flat track. this matters.
Middlebury- Unless the National schedule changed, their whole team will be fresh. I just don't think Schmidt has the wheels to win and their 800 guy is not an 800 guy. Should place high though.
Bates- No way. Grayboys isn't that great of a miler, and they'll be on a flat track.
Tufts- Definitely a hard team to predict. Rose is ranked 7th in the mile and Marvel is ranked 6th in the 800. Rose and Marvel are two of the most inconsistent runners in human history and neither of them are All-Americans, so I'm guessing they will go the easy way out and run only the DMR.
|Sorry I'm not sorry|
"Hannon is a much stronger anchor that Hillard. The problem is Hannon is ranked 4th in the mile and has a shot a placing high individually. But he hasn't doubled well historically, so if MIT decides to run him in both the mile and DMR they might bomb. On the other hand if MIT just goes for the win in the DMR, I think they would beat Bowdoin. Hillard doesn't seem like someone that would get the baton in first at Nats and then drop a 4:08-4:09 to run away with it... and Hannon runs very well when he is chasing people. My prediction is that MIT goes for the win in the DMR and wins."
Wow you know nothing about Hillard or Hannon. Hillard is without a doubt the person who would drop 4:08 4:09 to run away with it, especially when it matters. The kid's kick is absurd. Hannon's last flat track performance was a 4:26 2:37 double. Hillard, same meet, same tight flat Springfield track, went 2:29 open 1000 then closed the 4x8 in a 1:54 to win the relay. Sure the Tufts guys are a little unpredictable but Id say Hannon's leading the way on that front. He runs great when he's in a fast heat that just carries him through but I don't see him taking a race away from a competitor like Hillard. Again, sorry I'm not sorry but I nearly vomited from that post.
Hillard and Hannon are both not running the mile, so that should be really interesting. Wabash may not run as well as they would like with both waterman and Mccarthy doubling back, so that will be interesting to watch. Schmidt for midd is in the 5k and Sullivan for stevens point is also in the mile. Marvel and Rose with both be doubling back, so I would not be surprised to see Tufts blow up. I think the rest of the teams not mentioned above are going to be fresh.
5k is after the DMR, so all of midd's guys will be fresh. I bet they have a good showing, maybe third? MIT will go as Hannon goes, which has traditionally not been good at nationals, but he's not doubling, and if he's on his game they might be the favorite. It will be Hillard's race to lose, though, as he will almost assuredly get the baton in the lead. That said, he didn't look great at ECAC's where he almost gave up a huge lead in the last 400 to Graboys from Bates, who is good but not as good as many of the top anchors in this field. As for SP, Sullivan's doubling back from the mile trials, but he's run very fast times on a flat track and did well at outdoor nats last year. They definitely could win. McCarthy didn't double well at BU, so I think they Wabash will underperform a bit.
2) Stevens Point
I think it will come down to a kick between hillard and hannon. Two good milers on good teams with great kicks. Steven's Point would be up there but doubling worries me. I think schmidt could race very well for midd so i would have to say 3rd for them or better if MIT underperforms. McCarthy will be good enough to hang on and battle even after doubling, so I see them in the 3-5 range. NC always performs well and I think LaX will be solid too. It is hard to imagine Bates doing much with the slowest anchor in the field, but if Rose is on he could carry Tufts to a big finish.
7. Stevens Point
8. Wis LaX
Bates comes home with an All-American team. They performed (said anchor excepted) at the NCAA meet in XC when nobody thought they would or should, and they'll perform at this meet as well. Grayboys almost caught Hillard at ECAC. The key to Bates being in it is their 1200 leg keeping contact and handing off in a top 5 spot. If Grayboys gets the baton near Schmidt, he'll out-kick him. You heard it here first.*
Tufts blows up, big time. As much as I'd like to see them do well, doubling Rose and Marvel back is going to cost their DMR big time. They're not a strong enough team to pull that.
*I am fully prepared to fit my entire foot in my mouth if things go awry.
Ok these predictions nearly all suck. Anyone who thinks Bowdoin will lose is nuts. Hillard is easily the smartest racer in the field. No one will touch him if he gets the baton with a lead and with Horowtiz leading Bowdoin will not be behind. Kyle Hannon sucks. He ran run 4:09 one week and then 4:25 the next week. The only reason Grayboys almost caught Hillard last week is cause Hillard was waiting for him. Notice how Hillard was able to easily respond and cover the move. Just wait for this weekend. Same thing will happen. Also agree Tufts is not strong enough a team to double back. Schmidt is generally pretty clutch. I'm going
The 800 is half an hour before the dmr... no way wabash gets second with their anchor in the open mile and another one of their runners in the 800 when most of the other teams are fresh
And the plot thickens...
Tufts could easily use Sam Haney for either the 1200 or 1600 leg. He totally bombed the 1600 leg at BU, so they took him off the squad at ECAC, but he has the talent and they may need him with Rose and Marvel in individual events. They wouldn't have had him on that leg if they weren't expecting him to run well earlier this season. How would you stack DMR if you were Tufts coach?