| sports statistician |
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I have worked out that for all of the best 1500/mile runners, 1500 time is equal to 800 time doubled, plus less than five seconds. Almost no exceptions. You can see the mathematical proof below. LETSRUN POLL: IS YOUR 1500 PR WITHIN FIVE SECONDS OF YOUR 800 PR DOUBLED? (If not, you are probably more an 800 guy than a TRUE MILER!) ASBEL KIPROP 1:43, 3:30 1:43 x 2 = 3:26 3:26 + 4 = 3:30 ALAN WEBB 1:44, 3:31 1:44 x 2 = 3:28 3:28 + 3 = 3:31 SEB COE 1:42, 3:30 1:42 x 2 = 3:24 3:24 + 6 = 3:30 STEVE OVETT 1:44, 3:31 1:44 x 2 = 3:28 3:28 + 3 = 3:31 STEVE CRAM 1:43, 3:30 1:43 x 2 = 3:26 3:26 + 4 = 3:30 (Note: times rounded to nearest second.) |
| yupyup |
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ME 1:53, 3:50 1:53 x 2 = 3:46 3:46 + 4 = 3:50 |
| sandybeaver |
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Well lets see, my current 800 PR is 1:59.7 and my current mile PR is 4:08, so I'm going out on a limb here and say I'm more of a miler than an 800 guy. Of course I'm also more of a 5k guy than a miler. |
| predict my stuff |
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Alan Webb is 1:43, not 1:44, no? |
| predict my stuff |
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"rounded to nearest second" right, oops! |
| predict my stuff |
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So what do you get for El G and Lagat? I don't know what their ratios are, but does 3:26 not automatically make someone a miler regardless of the ratio? |
| break it up |
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So I would guess you are at least a 14:04 5000 runner who probably rarely races the 800. I was like you. My pr is 1:57 and my pr for 1500 is 3:45 but college I only raced the 800 two times. Freshman year in a low key meet twice for a workout. I doubt if I ever could have gone faster than 1:54 high but that would have taken several races at 800 meters. |
| Sevil Natas |
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I am a mediocre miler who is also bad in the 800. 2:03*2+5 = 4:11 1500 PR = 4:07. By golly, i'm a miler through and through! |
| sgsdgsdfgsdfgsdfg |
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1:53.3 x 2 = 3:46.6 + 5 = 3:51.6. Actual PR, 3:48.9, so it is + 2.3 for me... I would 100% consider myself a 1500m runner. |
| sports statistician |
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Good question about El G. I admit that I left him out purposefully - bad science, maybe, but there was a reason. His listed PR is a 1:47, which I just couldn't believe was a full effort at peak fitness. If we decide to take that 1:47, though, we can add... HICHAM EL GUERROUJ 1:47, 3:26 1:47 x 2 = 3:34 3:26 < 3:34 ... the ultimate miler? Really, though, I have to think he could have done better than 1:47. As for Lagat... BERNARD LAGAT 1:46, 3:26 1:46 x 2 = 3:32 3:26 < 3:32 ... another ultimate miler? |
| predict my stuff |
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wait plus less than 5 seconds? wouldn't that make every 5k/10k/marathon guy a miler also? their whole thing is that they have good speed endurance. in order to make a classification system like you're suggesting, maybe you'd need cutoffs otherwise Bekele would be a miler also, no? maybe like 5 seconds means youre a miler, 4 seconds means youre a 5k guy, and 3 means youre a marathoner |
| worked for me |
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1:59.1 x 2 = 3:58.2 4:02.9 - 3:58.2 4.7 sec difference |
| Love skinny legs |
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Well there's some inaccurate data there. His listed PR is nowhere near his actual PR. In athen's, during his 1500m final, his last two laps were a 1:46 if i recall correctly, so there's at least a 1:46. Not to mention the often quoted (never verified) 1:42-1:43 in practice. So I would assume that, during his peak, El G could have gone much faster than 1:47, he did so in the last half of a 1500 race |
| sports statistician |
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Yeah, I think we're agreed there. |
| ultimate miler? |
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My 800 is 2:06 and my 1500 is 4:12. Am I the ultimate miler? |
| sports statistician |
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Yeah, I think we're agreed there. |
| den bosch |
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Seb Coe was 1:41. This makes him EIGHT seconds below. |
| sports statistician |
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Sounds like you're better oriented to the 800! Do you see yourself as more of a speed guy or an endurance guy? It's all about slope. |
| Bad data! |
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Yes, even rounded to 1:42, it still works out 6 seconds! Which is outside the <5 secs the OP suggests. So the only man to win the Olympic 1500 twice and break the Mile WR 3 times in the post WW2 era was not a true miler! LOL. |
| sports statistician |
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You're right. We know Coe was one of the best milers we've ever seen. He was just ridiculously good at the 800, too, but pointing him out like this really is showing him to be the exception rather than the rule. I guess my rule of thumb actually identifies runners whose mile is significantly better than their 800. Which, as some mentioned above, would catch 5000+ specialists, who of course are going to have 1500s that are a lot better than their 800s. I would bet that the more speed-based 800/1500 guys have 1500s that don't make it inside this window. (If Centro had an 800 PR on the books, we could look into that...Maybe Wheating?) |