Batty is 24.[/quote]
And German was 18? What a shame. Even with conservative improvement one would have expected him to be running 3:53 low and low 7:40s by now, faster still by the time he's 24 (Batty's age).
I was thinking something similar. After yesterday, Fernandez is just an afterthought. We now have to follow (in no particular order):
...before even thinking about Fernandez. There are literally dozens... It's tough to think of 2 or 3 athletes only. What happened yesterday/this year? Why such a step improvement?
It seems like guys are not training to break 4 anymore, they are training to break 3:55.
In the 3,000, they are not thinking about 7:55, but 7:45 (or even 7:40, I am sure).
Fernandez had one good College race 3 years ago, but things are different now...
I wouldn't forget the up and coming star Robbie Creese. He's the one to follow. 1:48i/2:19i/3:59i and he only turned 18 in August. His stat line might include a few more Ajr's by the time his season is over...or at least some alltime marks.
|lost in Boston|
The age thing distorts reality.
Life (and running) doesn't work that way.
People mature at different rates, bodies differ as to their ability to withstand and improve from training over the years.
Even from a psychological angle, some athletes do well when they are the young underdog that receives an ocean of praise and support for newly found speed. However, they may crumble when they have the role of being the favorite and expected to win or produce but find themselves challenged by new no names.
I could cite dozens of budding stars who were young and full of promise but were never able to transform into a top tier performer as, say, Rupp has or Flanagan or Centro has.
It ain't as easy as fast at 19 equals top tier at 24.
|money money money money|
Ah, come on- GF had a phenominal YEAR that year, not just one race.
His NCAA CC season was stellar until nationals. He won Big 12s, and was in great position to be top 5 as a freshman until "the fall".
Then he busts a 3:56.5 at Arkansas to get indoors started, blowing by Dorian Ulrey with 225m to go.
Then runs a huge negative-split 7:47 "while sick". Then runs 3:55.02 solo at his conference meet, winning by 10 seconds.
Then he runs USA CC and destroys Derrick and Puskedra by 20 seconds. Then he finishes 11th at Junior Worlds, despite spotty training time due to injury (again beating Derrick).
Then he runs 13:31 in his outdoor 5K debut (Derrick beat him by bout 1.5 sec).
Then he wins the NCAA 1500 outdoors, leading start to finish, holding off some veterans (Ulrey, Heath, some New Mexico 25 year old, etc.) in 3:39.0.
Then, he caps it all off with a 13:25 at USA Outdoors to finish 5th.
So, much more than "one good race".
Since then, however... I HAVE NO F'N CLUE WHAT'S GOING ON (obviously a fan).
I meant to sat "fast" and not "good"
Although, at the time, all the times that you are mentioning were considered fast, if I look at the list above have run faster then his second "best" time...
Centro, Batty have both run faster than his 3:55 this indoor season
Hill, Estrada, Levins, Centro have all run faster than 7:47 this indoor season
Lalang, Sambu, Korir, Derrick have all run faster than his 13:25 this indoor season.
The reason why I said "one" fast race, is because I added names such as McCarthy, Van Ingen and O'Hare, who have run faster than Fernandez's second fastest mile, which he ran during his prime 3 years ago, but have yet to run faster than his "best" time in either the mile, 3,000 or 5,000. They are very close, but the important thing is that they are running those times now and not 3 years ago, so we have more reason to talk about them now than we do talking about Fernandez.
After seeing all those great races by German during his freshman year, I can only reach one conclusion: German was ruined by all that racing at such an early point in his career, and by slogging through that cross country season the next fall.
|predict my stuff|
How exactly did it ruin him? He's just injury prone, isn't he? The same thing happened to him in high school
My point is more that the times that have been run by multiple College runners this indoor season are even faster. It's not just one guy running amazing times, it's 12, 15, 20 or 25 guys...
Hill runs 7:43?...
...but he has not run 3:55 in over 3 years, when will he have is real "breakout" year? I don't see his name in the top 50 list right now... And I believe that he is graduating this year.