| Asker Of Things |
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What is the genetic potential for an average American male to run a 5K in, at whatever his peak running age is? Using whatever training would optimally train him for a 5K, what could he run a 5K in? Another way to put this is if every American male spent his life training to run his fastest possible 5K at the prime of his life, what would the median (50th percentile) time be? Assume optimal weight, diet, training. Take into account that mileage and training will be limited by genetics (i.e. some runners can't handle more than 30 miles/week without injury). Basically I'm wondering what the genetic potential is for an average American male for 5K. What about marathon? |
| Factt |
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Somewhere around 23 minutes maybe. |
| Suck it Arizona |
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10:21 |
| Captain Tenneal |
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I would guess around 16:45 or so. |
| Asker Of Things |
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That seems pretty fast. I would say the average mileage an average person could be trained to handle would be maybe 40? I am thinking that would be a tough time to achieve with average ability on 40 mpw. I'm going to weigh in and say a time of 20:00. |
| Just sayin dude |
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40??? you think that there are that many people out there that can't run for an hour?? |
| conficius |
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More than 50% of America is overweight, so to assume they are in terrible shape is fairly normal. |
| Just sayin dude |
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More than 50% of America is overweight, so to assume they are in terrible shape is fairly normal.[/quote] That's not what the thread is about though. And what exactly is "genetic" about injury, etc? |
| Asker Of Things |
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More than 50% of America is overweight, so to assume they are in terrible shape is fairly normal.[/quote] That's not what the thread is about though. And what exactly is "genetic" about injury, etc?[/quote] Propensity for injury is definitely genetic. Read: Fernandez. Wold-class potential if he could do high mileage without getting injured. |
| Romny |
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Genetic potential? I would say the AVERAGE would be around 15-17 mins. If everyone did nothing their whole lives but focus on running and ran to thier absolute genetic potential the world record would be down around 11:50 and the elite range cut off would be about 12:55. Not many people have tried long distance, of those that have few have tried really hard. And I mean REALLY hard, committing thier life to running. Of those that have committed everything to running most have become wrecked with injury. If every male in america were to really dedicate their life to running we would see a very different running world and the 5km would certainly be a damn sight quicker. Its difficult to imagine but a lot of the big guys you see on the football field have got there through a particular lifestyle that created that build, many of which would look very different if they had been running 140km a week and eating an optimum diet for years and years prior. Similarly, there's a lot of small, slight framed males who sit in thier dens playing world of war craft, who if forced to, could have been quicker than Webb. Just my 2.5c. |
| Asker Of Things |
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Congrats on the ridiculous post of the day. So let's see 11:50 5K = 3:55 pace. You're basically saying there's a person out there that either hasn't tried running or hasn't committed to it that can knock 20 secs a mile off the world record right now. So there's also a guy (or same guy) that can run the 1500 in 3:06 right? 15-17 min 5K is the average male talent? The low end of your range (15) results is saying that 50% of the population has the ability to run 14's or below? The average mile would be 4:30 or below. Ridiculous sir. |
| Only Half Troll |
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yeah, and it's stupid too. |
| Suck it Arizona |
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Well, there's the guy on here who says he could break Bekele's record in the 5k if he trained for it. |
| wepmad |
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I don't think it's that ridiculous. We're talking optimal here. The best imaginable results given the proper diet and training from birth. I consider myself below average genetically (had trouble running a full mile without walking at first, then when I could actually finish the distance I had trouble breaking 30 for 5k, and this was not a weight issue -- I weigh the same now as then), and after a decade of running I was able to get down to 16-mid 5K, which is pretty much where I plateaued. So yeah, if you took a kid, gave him the optimal diet and training regime from birth, I could totally the average 5k times might be around 15-16 minutes. I plateaued in the mid 16s, but sure, I could imagine that if I had done a lot of low intensity training from a young age that I could have gotten down to the mid 15s. 11:50 5K doesn't even seem too crazy, if Daniel Komen could run a 7:20 3K it doesn't strike me as completely crazy that with perfect conditions and genetics that someone could run an extra 2K at the same pace. |
| Was Fagan on SSRI in Arizona? |
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Maybe sub16 |
| Was Fagan on SSRI in Arizona? |
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But, on second thought, i remember the average kid on our high school cross country team ran like 20-21minutes, and these are kids with better running genetics to begin with (because they self select in coming out for HS cross country) so I'm really not sure I can give you a good answer. If kids lives depended on it then I don't see why they can't get at least sub 18. The least talented of the super serious male runner crowd can usually get To somewhere from 16-18min... |
| the smartest letsrunner |
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If raised for it from birth, with good diet, lots of activity and running sports as a child, starting some sort of running training in junior high ... you think the average person could only run 40 mpw? ~5.5 miles per day?? OK. |
| Asker Of Things |
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If raised for it from birth, with good diet, lots of activity and running sports as a child, starting some sort of running training in junior high ... you think the average person could only run 40 mpw? ~5.5 miles per day?? OK.[/quote] Fernandez can only run 50-60 mpw without getting injured and he's genetically gifted. Why do you think he hasn't improved in 3 years? To the person that said 15-16 would be a reasonable average for the entire population. Think about this...is that even the average for all college runners? I highly doubt that 15:30 would be the median time for college runners. 10K median time for college runners I'm guessing it like 33:00-33:30, meaning 5K would be about 16:00-16:15. And these are definitely pre-selected to be in the upper 1-2%. Granted they could improve slightly with 5 more years of training but we're not even talking about the 50th percentile. |
| Parochial boy |
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Given that yesterday I was told off by someone for saying that it didnt take much training to run a 5 hour marathon,I have lost all faith in human running ability. If the average person runs a 4.30 marathon off of real training then the average person is probably only capable of 23-25 minutes at the 5k. |
| You're an idiot |
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If Bekele can run 5k in 12:37 maybe he could run 10k in 25:14? |