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Although this is way too far out to make a completely accurate prediction (No freshmen, weather, injuries, etc), based on the results of the Patriot League Championships yesterday, minus all Seniors in the race, the results look like this.
Could be 5 years in a row for Navy if things play out.
Let's hear some predictions for XC. With Navy losing so many of their top runners could someone else get the win this year? Bucknell has a good chance to unseat the champs. Lehigh has an outside shot as well. To answer "Butthead"'s question it's recruiting Navy has 9 guys that ran sub 9:19 and 4:19 in HS, and a slew of others in the 9:20, 4:20 range. Can a few of them step up and run well? Hebda ran the 2 mile in 9:07 but didn't have much of an impact as a Freshman but you know he has a lot of potential to step up and help Navy this year.
Top 5 distance guys returning from track.
Garcia 14:50.12, 3:56.43
Krystek 14:40.49, 30:49.32
Satterwhite 3:53.95, 14:27.16
Rynning 14:40.73, 31:23.4
Burns 14:42.63, 31:09.24
Doesn't look so far fetched to me.
You're actually missing Bucknell's top returner from XC Patriot Leagues last year, PL freshman of the year John Dugan who placed 14th I believe. Navy is graduating all their big guns, but its hard to imagine them losing the league championship this year. 2013 however is a different story with the emergence of Boston University and their 3:57 miler.
In response to the last post: I wouldn't put too much emphasis on 1500m PRs. 5k, 10k, and steeple are far more applicable. I can think of one team that has 3 guys returning that were well under 14:30
You're actually missing Bucknell's top returner from XC Patriot Leagues last year, PL freshman of the year John Dugan who placed 14th I believe. Navy is graduating all their big guns, but its hard to imagine them losing the league championship this year. 2013 however is a different story with the emergence of Boston University and their 3:57 miler.[/quote]
You sir are correct. Dugan ran 9:14 in the steeple pretty solid performance. That definitely puts Bucknell ahead if you go by track performances.
Bucknell definitely has a lot of talent in their young guys, specifically Dugan (9:14 steepler), McGowan (30:22 10k), Garcia-Garrison (14:50 5k). Looking at their recruiting class too, Bucknell has 2 freshman with 9:10 2 mile PR's. Bucknell cold be really good in a couple of years. Don't count them out this year though, they return Krystek and Horning too.
Lehigh could also be very good next year and in the next couple of years too. 3 Juniors all under 14:30 for 5k (Miller, Bernitt, and Mueller). Also, they did have 2 freshman just under 15 for 5k at the bison outdoor classic, grant it that race was rabbited by McGowan from bucknell, but still impressive. I'm not sure how their frosh are coming in because they don't have a recruiting class up, but you can't count them out.
Right now I would say leagues looks like this
2.Lehigh (slight edge...remember bucknell beat them at regionals last year?)
8. Holy cross
1. Chris johnson
I think Lehigh could potentially upset Navy this year, they have a very solid pack of 3 guys (miller, bernitt, mueller) who could all be top 10 with their 4 and 5 boys not too far behind, that might prove to be too much for navy team that was hit extremely hard by graduation. American doesnt look too hot this year and it should be a close battle for third between them, Army and Bucknell. Chris Johnson looks to be a clear favorite for the individual title, but the two favorites last year in Kosgei and Cody Rome both lost so it should still be a good race
Based on returning runners of last years PLC:
1. Navy (4,5,12,14,15) 50
2. Lehigh (8,10,11,16,27) 72
3. Army (7,9,13,20,25) 74
4. American (2,3,17,22,41) 85
5. Bucknell (6,18,19,21,20) 90
6. Colgate (1,28,30,32,34) 125
7. Lafayette (23,29,31,33,37) 153
8. Holy Cross (35,36,38,39,40) 188
1. Lehigh (big 3 of mueller, miller and bernitt will anchor this team to its first Patriot League Championship)
2. Navy (very deep, they will find a way to replace some of their top guys)
3. American (centro will need a studly recruiting class to bring the championship back to American, i can see Mark Allen making a run for the individual title)
4. Bucknell (team with some young talent, they will be right there competing for a top 3 finish)
5. Army (like navy, they are always going to have guys that will show up)
6. Lafayette (if Will Volkmann can crack the top ten, i can this team being very close with colgate)
7. Colgate (Chris Johnson will most likely lock up that 1 spot, but will that be enough?)
8. Holy Cross (yeah...)
Can anyone take down chris johnson from colgate on his own turf? Being able to handle the hills is going to be a crucial aspect of success at leagues. With johnson knowing that course like the back of his hand is going to be a huge advantage for him. Allen can run with the big guns and so can the Lehigh power trio. I know navy is getting some good guys coming in from their prep school and I know of one recruit going to lehigh who says their incoming class is pretty good. Not to mention lehigh's sophomores class definitely has some young talent. Casey Gilboy running 9:19 as a frosh isnt too far off dugan.
when i ran for a PLC team, i was surprised to find that mileage levels (teamwise) didnt have a direct correlation with team performance.
when I was in the PL, lafayette was way in the basement, but a decent amount of their guys were doing 95-100+ per week.
Colgate varies by guy. They usually take a year or two to figure out what works and then work with the individual. Some guys are work horses and do high mileage, while others have to just do their base faster.
I would imagine Navy has a significant cohort at 95+
|Dietz and Watson|
Nice predictions. Bucknell will surprise some people this year I believe. They have three stud rising sophomores who have performed well on the track, two of those being IC4A qualifiers outdoors this year. Krystek returns as well to lead the charge.
We didn't hear much from Robbie Patterson of Navy in track this year, but he was 12th at xc Patriots last fall. Look out for him. Navy always brings guys out of the woodwork throughout the season (big roster, great coach) so they will be a threat even without their notorious front runners.
American is hurting, but Centro knows what he's doing. Allen, Pope, and Leininger will have big years. Look for Constantine Matsakis to step up into that top 5.
After seeing what Johnson did to Cody Rome in the last 2 laps of the outdoor 5k, he looks incredibly tough to beat at this point.
Lehigh is young and deep. They also may have the package to pull out a win.
When were you in the Patriot League? I'm assuming you went to Colgate?
I heard that Lehigh has some mileage hogs and Im sure that navy/army have a stable of guys who are in the 95-100 mpw range, and it shows.
What makes you think that Lafayette had guys in the 100+ per week range?? I dont see how they could have been that bad if they had the majority of their guys doing that kind of mileage.
Having one guy that does 100+ isnt going to do much for building a solid team. You need a large group of guys that are willing to do the work