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Team Analysis
David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/1/2011 8:04PM Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Any other athlete is fair game too. Rudisha would have the best shot in my opinion, but maybe there is someone else who would be faster in the sprints and still have enough endurance for the marathon. Here are the qualifying times, best as I could find. Note that most of them are from 2008, because for some reason I couldn't find them for 2012. But this is a rough exercise, so it doesn't really matter.

Event 'A' 'B'
100m 10.07 10.28
200m 20.30 20.75
400m 45.00 45.95
800m 1:46.50 1:48.50
1,500m 3:39.00 3:43.00 30
5,000m 13:33.00 13:50.00
10,000m 28:15.00 29:00.00
Marathon 2:19:00

One note: for the marathon, he needs the marathon standard. The 10000m or half-marathon options don't count, even though those would get you in in the real world.

My take: I don't think he'd quite be able to get it. The 100m and 200m are probably a bit quick for him, and there is not as much you can do to train these events. I predict he would get the 'B' standards, and maybe would run fast enough to qualify, but 10.07 is a pretty legit time.

I think if he were trying to do it, this would be the best strategy: he gets the 800m, the 1500m, and maybe the 400m out of the way quickly. Then he increases mileage and starts doing aerobic runs. Maybe he does the 5k and 10k if he is feeling good, otherwise he goes straight up to the marathon. He then runs a couple marathons, stops when he gets the standard, and then gets the 5000m and 10000m times if he hasn't already. If all goes well, which I think it would, he could do all this in no more than 15 months.

Then he immediately drops mileage to essentially zero, starts lifting heavy weights, and starts taking every (legal) supplement he can get his hands on. Of course he has to do this without getting injured, but my point is that he no longer has to worry about running anything longer than 400m ever again -- 200m if he has already gotten the 400m time. He then spends the rest of the time training for the 100m and 200m, and hopes that he has the speed in him.

Of course, there are lots of reasons why this attempt is never ever going to happen, and I won't get into these. I am asking you to suspend your disbelief. Do you think he would get the standards? Would he be close? Which events would be the hardest/most unrealistic to get? Would anyone else have a better shot? Remember, he is training full-time for four full years with his only goal being to achieve these standards. Cheating is not allowed, but other than that, he is doing anything and everything is his power to achieve these standards.
Team Analysis
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/1/2011 8:09PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Oh, and no hurdle races. He would have a chance in the steeplechase, but the other two are ridiculous for someone who has probably never trained hurdles.
wnerer
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/1/2011 10:13PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I doubt he'd get the 100 or 200. He'd probably have a better shot at the 200 though. All the training in the world can't get someone to run sub 10.07.
steve "red"
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/1/2011 10:40PM - in reply to wnerer Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I actually doubt that he could get even the B standard in the 100 & 200
Sprinter Magoo
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/1/2011 11:55PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
He could easily get the 400 hurdles, with his 45.5 personal best in the 4.

The 110 would be hard for him.


I don't think he would get the 100 standard, but he might get the 200 standard.

He could easily get the 400-marathon standards.
:|}
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 12:45AM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Call me crazy but I think Solinsky has the potential to do this. Hecould easily go 15-Marathon within a matter of weeks. Maybe even pull off the 800 B standard. Then from there, he'd have to do what you said, completely drop his mileage, and go for the sprinting. I don't think from there he could do it, but he does have at least 3 years to do it. He does have the build for it though.
steve "red"
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 6:13AM - in reply to Sprinter Magoo Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
What is the A standard for the 400 hurdles?
The Waterboy
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 12:43PM - in reply to steve "red" Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
I don't know if he'd get the A standard for everything, but one thing's for sure- he would have won the 1500m at the past national championships. He could easily do a 3:47 1500 with a 51 last lap.

It gives him the option of running the 800m for Kenya in the 2012 and 2016 Olympics, and then becoming an American citizen and run the 1500m for the USA in 2020 just like Lagat since the winning times of the 1500 are always so slow
bmi overweight
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 12:44PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Really interesting hypothetical - thanks for posting. Before answering, I do want to rant just a little bit on a pet peeve of mine that you brought up:

Team Analysis wrote:

My take: I don't think he'd quite be able to get it. The 100m and 200m are probably a bit quick for him, and there is not as much you can do to train these events. I predict he would get the 'B' standards, and maybe would run fast enough to qualify, but 10.07 is a pretty legit time.



I think there is just as much you can do to train a 100 as a 10k - why are top sprinters training their asses off if your statement is true? I understand the sentiment - some folks are really fast and others (e.g. Bill Rodgers) will NEVER break 10.5 no matter what. But consider a true short- sprinter e.g. Mo Greene; even if raised on a diet of soccer and then track like Cruz, this guy is never breaking 1:46 for 800m, and will never sniff 2:20:00 for the marathon. People pick (or their coaches choose) certain events to specialize in for a reason, not because some events are more trainable than others.

Ok, rant over, sorry! I agree, Rudisha could come close, but the 100m might prove impossible. I think your strategy is off, though. I think he would have to quit the (mid)distance training and get the sprints out of the way asap (like in the first two years) - if these don't happen first, they're not going to happen. Plus, age is more on your side for distance as compared to sprints. I wonder if a leaner-type decathlete could do this.

Some other thoughts I have are Ovett (who did sprints as a youth), Cruz, and Juantorena. Another interesting thing to think about is if any athlete could ever beat the A-standards of their era - it would be interesting to see what those standards were for the 1984 games, for example. In this case, you'd have someone like Cruz, who would give Rudisha a run for his money over 800m, but with (likely?) much slower 100m standards. If we made it relative for era, then I would image that Snell would be a lock, but again doing the distances in order from shortest to longest.

Obviously a huge 'what-if' but still fun to think about.
Maximus
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 12:49PM - in reply to bmi overweight Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
[quote]bmi overweight wrote:

Really interesting hypothetical - thanks for posting. Before answering, I do want to rant just a little bit on a pet peeve of mine that you brought up.

I think there is just as much you can do to train a 100 as a 10k - why are top sprinters training their asses off if your statement is true? I understand the sentiment - some folks are really fast and others (e.g. Bill Rodgers) will NEVER break 10.5 no matter what. But consider a true short- sprinter e.g. Mo Greene; even if raised on a diet of soccer and then track like Cruz, this guy is never breaking 1:46 for 800m, and will never sniff 2:20:00 for the marathon. People pick (or their coaches choose) certain events to specialize in for a reason, not because some events are more trainable than others.
quote]

I would say you are completely wrong on that, but it is just an opinion and you are entitled to it.
Concerned Citizen
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 1:00PM - in reply to Maximus Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Jeremy Wariner has trouble getting the A standard for the 200. There is no way in hell that Rudisha would get the 100 and 200, the 400 is going to be a stretch, and the 5000 and up would probably be tough too - we just don't know enough about his long-distance capabilities to know if he could run well in those events.
I am just saying
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 1:03PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
No to the 100, 200 and marathon and a strong maybe for the 5,000 and 10,000 and a probably for the 400, 800 and 1500.
herbbuttery
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 1:03PM - in reply to :|} Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
:|} wrote:

Call me crazy but I think Solinsky has the potential to do this. Hecould easily go 15-Marathon within a matter of weeks. Maybe even pull off the 800 B standard. Then from there, he'd have to do what you said, completely drop his mileage, and go for the sprinting. I don't think from there he could do it, but he does have at least 3 years to do it. He does have the build for it though.


Yes I call you crazy.

To run sub 10.5 you need sprinter talent.

Not talent
leprend
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 3:55PM - in reply to herbbuttery Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
One white guy has gone sub-10, and he worked his butt off as a sprinter his whole life. Solinsky isn't gonna drop a 10.07 just by cutting his mileage and focusing on sprinting, I think it's safe to say. (Same with East Africans, who are much different from the West Africans with sprinting ability.)
:|}
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 4:08PM - in reply to herbbuttery Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
herbbuttery wrote:

[quote]:|} wrote:

Call me crazy but I think Solinsky has the potential to do this. He could easily go 15-Marathon within a matter of weeks. Maybe even pull off the 800 B standard. Then from there, he'd have to do what you said, completely drop his mileage, and go for the sprinting. I don't think from there he could do it, but he does have at least 3 years to do it. He does have the build for it though.


Yes I call you crazy.

To run sub 10.5 you need sprinter talent.

Not talent[/quote]

Sorry, I was drunk when I wrote that. I still did point out that he probably can't do it, so I guess I'm not crazy. But it is possible to hit a 10.3 for him. As a small distance runner (5'11" 140) in high school, I was primarily a distance guy (52 400, 1:55 800, 2:32 1k, 4:20 1600, 9:20 3200, 15:16 5k). This shows I didn't have much speed, yet I still managed out an 10.96 100 in one of my goof-off meets. I would think that Solinsky with his probably much greater 400/800 speed and his build could probably do much better for the 100.
long way apart
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 5:01PM - in reply to :|} Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
going from 10.96 to 10;07 is like going from 4:15 to 3:50

Your talking going from what would be a pretty good HS time to a Pro time.
Team Analysis
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 9:39PM - in reply to bmi overweight Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
bmi overweight wrote:

I think there is just as much you can do to train a 100 as a 10k - why are top sprinters training their asses off if your statement is true? I understand the sentiment - some folks are really fast and others (e.g. Bill Rodgers) will NEVER break 10.5 no matter what. But consider a true short- sprinter e.g. Mo Greene; even if raised on a diet of soccer and then track like Cruz, this guy is never breaking 1:46 for 800m, and will never sniff 2:20:00 for the marathon. People pick (or their coaches choose) certain events to specialize in for a reason, not because some events are more trainable than others.


Hey, thanks a lot for posting. And thanks for disagreeing with something without ripping on me. A lot of people on this forum could learn from that. I just wanted to touch on this to clarify my opinion.

I do think there are things you can to train for the short sprints. I know that the short sprinters are training their asses off just as much as the distance runners, and for good reason -- I am sure that great sprinting achievements, like most great achievements, are not achieved without an amazing amount of hard work.

However, as far as developing talent in something you have not been training for, the long distances are much easier to improve in. For instance, consider two identical twins with no serious running background who can run a 4:00 marathon and a 20 second 100m. One twin trains very hard for the marathon, and ends up running 3:00. The other trains very hard for the 100m. What does he end up running? Probably something like 18 seconds. Certainly not 15. But his brother lopped of 25% of his time, and he cannot. (Note that the 100m time is probably weaker than the marathon time, especially for non-runners. But if you make the 100m time 17 or 18 seconds, the discrepancy only increases).

As another point, Rudisha is exclusively an 800m runner, which is 8 times 100m (and 4 times 200m). It is less than one fiftieth of a marathon. Yet almost everyone thinks that the marathon time would be quite possible, while the 100m time would not be. I think if Rudisha ran a marathon tomorrow, he would not get anywhere near 2:19. I think he would DNF or be over 2:40. Yet with a year or two of solid training, I think he would have the potential to be well under it. The same improvement just doesn't happen in sprinting. Rudisha's speed already is very good -- I mean, he's the 800m world record holder. So why do people think he couldn't improve the 'little' bit he has left when he has never trained for the sprints? Because you just don't get as much improvement in those events. This doesn't diminish the effort sprinters put into their running -- they have to work really hard for each one hundredth -- but there is just less you can do to improve in these events.
:|}
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 10:26PM - in reply to long way apart Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
long way apart wrote:

going from 10.96 to 10;07 is like going from 4:15 to 3:50

Your talking going from what would be a pretty good HS time to a Pro time.


I agree with that. However, I believe with a good 2-3 years of training, he could go from whatever his 100 PR is to 10.28 and get the B standard. With that time he could probably also get the 200 B standard and maybe the 400 B standard.
hikerdonovan
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 10:39PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
On a similar note, which superhero would win the battle to end all battles?
hgp
RE: David Rudisha is given 4 years to get the US Olympic Trials 'A' Standard for every running event. Could he do it? 7/2/2011 11:02PM - in reply to Team Analysis Reply | Return to Index | Report Post
Rod Dixon!
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