Technical Analysis of 30km and 10000m in Eugene

Renato Canova
Coach

RE: Technical Analysis of 30km and 10000m in Eugene 6/5/2011 9:26AM - in reply to Renato Canova

For the first time there were 9 athletes able running under 27’ in the same race. However, the real value of those times can be better, since the pace was very bad at the beginning, with the second and third lap in 68”. This fact means that the athletes lost 8” from the planned schedule, and this doesn’t mean they saved energy, on the contrary they had to spend more energies for launching the speed again.
In fact, one thing is to run at even pace a little bit slower than the final goal, distributing for all the first part of the race the possibility to save energy (like, for example, running an average of 64.5 instead 64.0 per lap) : in this case it’s possible to have a negative split very consistant, and this is the normal way we use for running fast from 3000m to Marathon. Different thing is to run two laps very slow and completely out of the plan. In this case we don’t save energy, but WASTE time.
Threfore, since the wasted time was about 8”, we can suppose the final time could be under 26’40” for Mo Farah, about 26’40” for Imane Merga and Josphat Bett, and in any case better for everybody.
Mo Farah ran his first 5 km in 13’29”5, because was at the end of the group, still including 16 athletes, so his splits were 13’29”5 + 13’17”, with a last lap of 2’30”72 and a last lap of 54”2. This can show good possibilities of winning WCh, if Bekele is not able to go back in his best shape on time.
Mo was already able running under 27’ last year, but the only 10000m (European Champs apart) he ran was the European Challenge, when he had a rabbit (Philemon Limo) for 6800m and had to run alone the last 8 laps, finishing in 27’28”. We spoke together several times about his best choice for Olympic (he was in training in Iten for long time), and I explained him why he could hope to win 10000m in Olympic, having better chances than in 5000m.
Imane Merga was in 26’40” shape, and he showed in the race that this evaluation was correct. He paid a little bit the victory in the 5000m of Rome one week before, but in any case the distance, more new for him (also if he was number 4 in WCh in Berlin), reduced a little his qualities for the final kick. I think that we have still to work for increasing his specific endurance.
Josphat Bett was not a big surprise for who knows the best Kenyan talents. He won the World Junior Champs in 2008 with 27’30”85, and in 2009 was already able running 12’57”43 in 5000m. Last year had a bad season due to an injury, but this year everything was ok, and he started to show his talent, more oriented to longer distances. He showed good personality in the race, with a last km in 2’32” that can allow him to be considered a possible winner in every 10000m when the pace is fast. Shining future for this young athlete.
Paul Tanui improved from 27’17”61 of last year, but confirmed his lack of final speed. Personally, I see this guy as one of the top marathon runners of the future.
Mathew Kisorio, having good basic speed (his PB are 7’34”09 in 3000 and 12’57”83 in 5000), can also become one of the best Marathon runners. He started already to move in that direction, under the guidance of Claudio Berardelli, running a HM in 60:29 this winter.
Mark Kiptoo is the only athlete under 27’ already old (is now 35 years old), but continues to improve. His PB are all in the last two years (7’32”97 and 12’53”46), while his previous PB in 10000m was in Eugene 2008 (27’14”67) in the race Kenenisa Bekele won.
Leonard Komon confirmed that his future is on the road. His lack of final speed can’t allow him in winning any race if not able to move alone, but on track there are many athletes can stay with him till the last lap. He wants to run a HM at the end of the season, and we can wait for a performance under 59’.
An interesting athlete is the first over 27’, the World Junior Champion of Cross Geoffrey Kipsang. He started running in 2010 only, and had some experience in small meetings, working with a small manager. His PB were 3’48”15 in 1500m, 7’54”15 in 3000 and 13’42”01 in 5000m. Geoffrey has particular attitude (mental, too) for long distances, and already had the idea to move to Marathon. Of course, due to his young age, his coach Patrick Sang prefers to have one year on the track, also if he already ran, on 3rd of April, the HM of Berlin, finishing in 60’38”. He will be in 5000m next week in New York, and can be interesting to see him (my personal expectation is for a time around 13’10”).
At the end, we can say that, if good races of 10000m could be organised 3-4 times during a season, we could have not less than 25 athletes under 27’. I can give the list, only for fun : the 9 athletes already under 27’ in Eugene plus the following (divided for category) :
a) HM and Marathon runners (Mosop, Mutai, Kitwara, Bernard Kipyego, Gebremariam)
b) Young athletes (Geoffrey Kipsang, David Bett)
c) Specialists of 5000m (Kipchoge, Soi, Chepkok, Lucas Rotich)
d) US runners (Solinski, Rupp, waiting the come back of Ritzenhain)
e) Top specialists not in Eugene (Kipsiro, Josphat Menjo)
f) Kenyan based in Japan (Mathati, Ndambiri, Ngatuny)
g) And, at the end, the king : KENENISA BEKELE
So, don’t think running under 27’ can be an incredible performance, as the value you need in 5000m for running so fast is between 13’05” and 13’10”, of course with a specific preparation.
People not knowing the real possibilities of the athletes, and not knowing the athletic history, speak about doping for something that is a normal performance only, of course related with top athletes.

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