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| wejo co-founder |
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I just got off the plane and read the LetsRun.com previews. Perhaps Rojo purposely waited until I was on a plane all day to post them so I couldn't argue with him. The Solinsky vs Rupp battle may hinge more on how fast the pace is up front and who tries to hang longest. However assume the proper pace, I think Solinsky will beat Rupp for a few reasons. 1) He's a better runner than Rupp right now in his career and 2) He's more race sharp than Rupp. Not pointed out in the preview is that Rupp was supposed to take a break after the NYC Half. So he's just getting back into the swing of things. He wasn't a better 10k runner than Solinsky last year so with Solinsky already showing he's sharp in 2011 and with better PRs at everything from 1500-10k in my book he's the better runner so he should win. I'm supposed to believe Rupp off a break is now all of a sudden better than Solinsky? Solinsky has upped his game in the shorter distances this year. Rupp has upped his game in the longer distances. I'm a huge believer in strength over speed but in this case I'm still taking Solinsky. This race will be a great test for Solinsky and it may show whether he's at another level in 2011. Does his superior mile speed in 2011 correspond to better success in the longer distances? or has it come at the expense of endurance. We'll find out tonight. |
| Fevahpfl |
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From everything I've read or heard Solinsky does appreciably more weekly miles than Rupp and has been for sometime, so even if Rupp has "upped his game in the longer distances" I don't think he's as strong as Solinsky. I think Solinsky will take more scalps than just Rupp, the guy is tough and has learned a lot about racing against the International elites in the last year. I'm saying Solinsky is top three. |
| betterbutter |
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What if.....Solinsky shocks the world and runs 13:20, 13:20 for 26:40 and takes it right to the E. Africans? If anyone can do it Solinsky can. I see 26:50 or better for him and agree with the previous poster about him easily being in the mix for top 3. |
| Imagine all the people |
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Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3? |
| unshockable |
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26:40 will not shock "the World". If Solinksi finishes top 3 and sub 27 that would be impressive for an American. If Rupp PRs and doesn't go sub 27 that would also be impressive. The race should be great. Hopefully, the race won't be a tactical one with an 14 flat opening 5k. |
| Christ compels you |
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Its gonna be AWESOME! |
| master tactician |
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I'll say (and this is being conservative) that Solinsky is hanging right in there with the big dogs with 2 laps to go. The question for me is how will he respond with 300m-400m left in the race? Do the wheels come off at 400m to go or is he kicking with them the whole way? I think he'll beat Rupp because hes a grown M-A-N. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPNec5xAASg |
| Fevahpfl |
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Yes, because I think 26:48-26:52 will be good enough for third and I think Solinsky can run that. |
| ho now |
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Better yet: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5IOou6qN1o |
| confidence, and then some |
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Solinksy's advantage is he has confidence, running sub 27 last year. Even of he doesn't run 26:50 I think he will take it out at that type of pace. Chris seems to be unconcerned about running over his limits, something a runner needs to set impressive PRs. |
| malmo |
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Weldon, don't expect too much. A few things about Eugene that you have to learn going in. This time of year the weather can be iffy. The Willamette Valley is on of the biggest producers of grass seed in the world and it is right now that the grass is blooming. The prevailing winds come from the NW, Eugene sits at the very south end of the Valley, so the pollen gets blown to and concentrated in Eugene. While it has been wet in Eugene this week, keeping the pollen levels down, if the Sun pops out there will be a burst of fresh pollen in the air, which is not good for Rupp (and others). When it's sunny in Eugene, that usually means a steady wind coming form the Northwest. What happens is that wind tends to settle in the evening, usually at about 6-7 pm. Usually is the operative word here. If everything goes to plan then you could see a perfectly calm evening, perfect for running (except for the pollen), and some very fast distance times. |
| Imagine all the people |
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Yes, because I think 26:48-26:52 will be good enough for third and I think Solinsky can run that.[/quote] No. You wouldn't. Sorry, but you wouldn't look at the start list and pick out Solinsky. What would the logic be? He's the third fastest PR? No. You would look at the list of East Africans and realize that there are 5 with PRs 10 - 29 seconds faster. Then you would think that half of the others are WAY better than their current PR just because they've been focusing on running the roads. So you would conclude that Solinsky might place around 10 - 12. Except that you wouldn't even notice him because everyone loses track after they've identified the top 3 - 5 contenders. So, no, you wouldn't. |
| ryan foreman |
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I would agree that this is probably Solinky's race to lose vs Rupp. But there is a distinct possibility he will do just that. I think Rupp has shown more discipline in his races over the years from what I've seen and generally stays within himself very well. But yeah. Solinsky was obviously at a high level last year. And from what I glean from the news, all he has done is stay healthy and continued to do high volume, high quality workouts. He has to be favored over Rupp. |
| The Biggest Boss |
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Maybe I didn't get the memo, but will we be able to watch the men's 25k/30k? I understand the women's 5k is getting blacked out. I have the link for the men's 10k, should I just go to the link when the 25k/30k starts? P.S. What time is the 25k/30k again? |
| Soho |
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Rupp's half showed he has at least comparable strength to Solinsky, probably more. Still, he's maybe 8 weeks off a break and gunning for late summer. Does anyone know how fast the pacers are going? If they go 13:20, Solinsky will fall off at 7-8k for about 27:10. Rupp can't run that pace at all (in a 10k) and would die. If they go 13:35-13:40, both guys should manage 27:0x. |
| Sincerely appreciative |
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wejo, Thanks for the coverage. |
| Kanye North |
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Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?[/quote] Please re-read the post you are quoting. He did say that Solinksy would be in the mix for the top 3. That does not mean he will be top 3. I think many French/Australians/etc. (though not all) would think Solinsky can be in the mix for third. |
| Finding Fast Times |
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Normally I would favor Rupp in tonight's race. The problem is that the pollen count in Eugene jumped just his afternoon. Being aware of Rupp's sensitivity to pollen, and having dealt with that issue myself, I wouldn't be surprised to see Alberto pull Galen if the count continues to climb today. Alberto is an extremely experienced and aware coach so if the facts (pollen) so dictate, I doubt he'd be stupid enough to risk the USATF championships later this month. |
| Imagine all the people |
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Imagine for a moment that you are French. Or Australian. Or Moroccan. Do you think that, looking at the start list, you would pick Solinsky for top 3?[/quote] Please re-read the post you are quoting. He did say that Solinksy would be in the mix for the top 3. That does not mean he will be top 3. I think many French/Australians/etc. (though not all) would think Solinsky can be in the mix for third.[/quote] Please do a bit of back reading yourself, my dear friend. betterbutter was explicitly agreeing with the post above his which read: "...I think Solinsky will take more scalps than just Rupp, the guy is tough and has learned a lot about racing against the International elites in the last year. I'm saying Solinsky is top three." |
| agapius mackwamba |
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"Perhaps Rojo purposely waited until I was on a plane all day to post them so I couldn't argue with him." Being that you're both from Texas, these would be considered fighting words. I would suggest a wager - and the terms should include a forced wearing of a LeBron James jersey... |
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