What To Look For In Women's Steeplechase Final at the 2012 US Olympic Track & Field Trials

by LetsRun.com
June 27, 2012

More: LRC Steeple Prelim Recaps: All The Favorites Get Through As US Champ Billy Nelson Barely Makes The Final

The women's steeple looks like it will shape up to be much like the men's in that there is a heavy favorite for first, someone who probably should be second, and then a lot of women who could take 3rd. Only 5 women have the 9:43.00 "A" standard, but there are a few more who could get it in what is sure to be a fast final.

The Field:

10 out of the 14 in the final have gone sub 9:50 this year and 5 of those 10 have the "A" standard.

9:25.28 Emma Coburn
9:39.77 Bridget Franek
9:42.96 Sara Hall

9:43.09 Shalaya Kipp
9:43.28 Delilah Dicrescenzo
9:46.83 Ashley Higginson
9:47.76 Stephanie Garcia
9:47.32 Mason Cathey (from the prelim)
9:48.04 Becky Wade
9:49.03 Carrie Dimoff (from the prelim)
Bold = Has 'A' Standard of 9:43.00

The first spot is a lock, but after that everyone will need to perform well because no one is so dominant over the others that they can have a sub-par day and still walk away an Olympian.

The First Two Olympians

Emma Coburn is a heavy favorite for first. She is the defending national champion, has a 9:25 PR (14 seconds faster than second ranked Bridget Franek has run this year) and she was a finalist at World Champs last year. Not to mention she basically tempoed a 9:43 in her prelim. The only way she loses this race is if she falls and even then we'd still pick her to win. Franek is the logical favorite to take second. The 2010 NCAA champ has the second best PR (9:32) and has ran under 9:43 twice this year. She is not infallible though, as she ran a bad race at Pre (9:52). However, she looked good here winning her prelim in 9:44 so we still think she's the most likely to take second.

The Battle For Third And The "A" Standard

After the top 2 the battle for third should come down to the other 8 women who have broken 9:50 this year. Out of those 8, there are 5 that really stick out to us. Not all of them have the "A", but the great news for the women is that the standard is, quite honestly, pretty weak, and this will almost certainly be a fast race as Coburn said in her interview that she wanted to race closer to what she did at Pre Classic (where she ran 9:25). We'd be shocked if someone got third and didn't hit the "A" standard and we would actually bet at least two people (possibly more) run under the "A" standard and don't go to London. The 3 with the standard are Sara Hall, Delilah Dicrescenzo, and Stephanie Garcia. Worlds competitor from last year, Garcia hasn't broken 9:47. Hall, who has never made a US Olympic or World outdoor team, has the third fastest US time in 2012, but she seemed to stutter a bit on the steeples in her prelim. The race for third will inevitably come down to a kick as we don't think she's good enough to run away from the rest of the field and if you're loosing a lot of ground over those last couple steeples it's almost impossible to outkick someone. Dicrescenzo could be a good pick for third. She finished third at US Nationals last year and has a 9:40 PR. However, in her two races this year she ran 9:43 and 9:47 and lost to both Shalaya Kipp and Ashley Higginson. She's going to need to run near her PR (maybe break it) to make this team.

Speaking of Kipp and Higginson, they are the two without the "A" that we think have a good shot to make the team. In her prelim Higginson ran a personal best of 9:45.21. In fact, she has PR'd in every single steeplechase she has run this year (4 of them). If she keeps that trend going she has a good shot at the "A" and then has to fight for a top 3 spot. Kipp, the 2012 NCAA champion, is undefeated in steeplechases this year (minus the prelim she just ran against Coburn). She ran an agonizingly close .09 off the "A" at Payton Jordan and she's not been in a fast race since. Kipp and Coburn are teammates and train together at Colorado. Coburn says she knows Kipp is in shape to go under 9:43 and Colorado coach, Mark Wetmore, is an expert at peaking so we think shell get the "A". The only thing counting against her is that she said she was going for the "A" in the prelim and in that situation she had good conditions, a teammate to follow in Coburn, and no traffic to deal with, but only ran 9:46. Could she be burned out after a long NCAA season? In the final she'll have to deal with a lot more bodies to get around and may end up running in outside lanes or getting bumped on a hurdle or two. She'll need to bring her "A" game (no pun intended) if she wants to get under the time and make this team.

Rice's Becky Wade could be a sleeper pick. She ran 9:48 this year in her first steeple since 2009. The prelim to get into the final was only her second steeple since '09. A big PR for her would definitely not be out of the question and the other girls are not far in front of her.

Really after the top 2, the rest of the women under 9:50 are all very similar and it's just going to be about who has the best day. Most of them will need a PR if they want to be top 3, but with 3 days of rest between the prelim and the final they should be plenty rested and this will feel more like a new race than a second round. There was some debate among the LetsRun.com staff, but in the end we decided to go with Shalayla Kipp for third. She's undefeated this year and ran .09 off the "A" back in April. As long as the collegiate season didn't burn her out she should be ready to pop a big one here in a fast race.

LRC Prediction: 1) Coburn 2) Franek  3) Kipp

Full Start List:

Lane Name Affiliation
 1 Carrie Dimoff Bowerman Athletic Club
 2 Lisa Aguilera Nike
 3 Emma Coburn Colorado
 4 Stephanie Garcia New Balance
 5 Shalaya Kipp Colorado
 6 Delilah DiCrescenzo Puma / New Jersey New York T C
 7 Rebecca Wade Rice University
 8 Sara Hall Asics
 9 Ashley Higginson Saucony
 10 Rebeka Stowe Kansas
 11 Jamie Cheever Oiselle / Team USA Minnesota
 12 Mason Cathey Saucony
 13 Bridget Franek Nike / Oregon TC Elite
 14 Sarah Pease Unattached

 

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