What To Look For In Women's 5,000 Final at the 2012 US Olympic Track & Field Trials

by LetsRun.com
June 27, 2012

After the women's 5000 prelims, which saw Jackie Areson shockingly go out, we've updated our list of potential Olympic candidates to the following.

The Sub 15:25 Entrants - "A" Standard is 15:20.00
Lauren Fleshman
 Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:00.57    Great run to make the final, but she has been hurt and has no chance.
Julia Lucas Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:08.52    The US leader for 2011. Also has the fastest 1,500 seaonal best of anyone in the field.
Molly Huddle    Saucony 15:10.01   The American record holder was the 4th American in the Pre 3k (Maloy, Ulh & Felnagle beat her)
Julie Culley    Asics / New York Athletic Club (NYAC)   15:13.87    She beat Jessica Tebo & Maloy at Payton Jordan, lost to Lucas.
Jackie Areson   Nike    15:14.31    She is undefeated in 5000 this year. The people who the LRC nation had at #2 shockingly went out in the heats.
Amy Hastings    Brooks  15:14.31  Will she even start this race? 10k winner  went out in heats.
Lisa Uhl    Nike / Oregon TC Elite  15:15.22    She made the 10k team and has little motivation to go for it big time here.
Elizabeth Maloy New Balance 15:15.34    Who says people don't improve after college? Graduated Georgetown with pbs of 4:16/16:25. Now under the training of Miltenberg, she's an Olympic hopeful. Top American at Pre 3000.
Angela Bizzarri Brooks  15:16.04     15:55 sb, ran 9:14 at Pre (Maloy ran 8:50). Went out in heats.
Brie Felnagle   adidas  15:22.39    Former 1,500 runner for UNC.
Abbey D'Agostino  Dartmouth 15:23.35  NCAA champ.
Alisha Williams Boulder Running Company/adidas  15:24.82    5th in 10k. Made the final but we don't think top 3 is realistic
Kim Conley  SRA Elite   15:24.89 Surprised she skipped the 10k for this since she'd run 32:00.

If those are the contenders, what will we be looking for in the final?

1. Will Kim Conley set the pace?  

There really are two Olympic hopefuls in the field without the "A" of 15:20.00 that might set the pace and we know that the NCAA champ Abbey D'Agostino isn't going to push the pace as she told us after the race. That leaves Kim Conley (Alisha Williams also doesn't have it but she didn't set the pace in the 10k so why would she do it here?).

The 26-year old is a bit more experienced. Will she step up and set the pace?

Since despite having the 4th fastest 10k time, Conley skipped the 10,000 (which we thought might be easier to make the team as only three women had the 'A'), we are assuming she's running the 5000 as she wants to go to London. If the pace isn't honest, she isn't going.

How fast does the pace need to be? Well 15:20 is basically 4:55 1600 pace. If the first 1600 is 5:00, they can do it. If it's 5:05, they can still do if they start going. If it's 5:10, then it's looking less and less likely. The very top people could maybe go 5:10 and then run a 75 for 6:15 and maybe still close in under 9:05 for the final 3k.

Here's a stat for you. In the prelims, Abbey D'Agostino closed in 9:02 - her 3k pr is 9:02.

2. Who gets the final two/final spot(s)?

We were very impressed with Julia Lucas coming in and even more so after talking to her after her semis. The veteran seems very confident in both her fitness (#1 5000 time in US for 2012) and kick (top 1,500 seasonal best time of all entrants this year). We think she's a virtual lock. And what a great story that will be as she started the year with a 15:33 pb. If she makes it, she deserves a lot of credit for having the confidence for taking a week off ending on June 2nd to clear up a foot problem.

After Lucas, we weren't real sure who to go with. Areson, who came in undefeated in the 5000, bombed out in the first round. Clearly that wasn't a wise initial #2 pick.

In our minds, Molly Huddle should be the logical #2 pick (if not #1). She is the American record holder in the event after all at 14:44.76. Coming in, we stayed away from her as we were a bit concerned that she was banged up as she hasn't raced much this year and wasn't entered in the 10,000 but our post-race interview with Huddle cleared that up. She says she ran a few times trials rather than races and is ready to go. Also we were worried because Huddle was only the 4th American in the 3k at Pre but one of the women who killed her at Pre - Brie Felnagle - is out so we can't overanalyze things based on one race.

So that leaves one spot.

Ignoring 10k team member Lisa Uhl, who doesn't have a lot of motivation as she is already on a team and doesn't have great wheels, there are only two other women with the 'A'. And they are likely to battle for the third and final spot - Julie Culley and Liz Maloy. Culley has run at worlds before and is more experienced and she crushed Maloy at Stanford (15:13 to 15:26). So game over right? Wrong.

Maloy is faster than Culley at 1500 (4:09 versus 4:12, 4:11 versus 4:12 in same race earlier this month) and Maloy was the top American in the 3000 at Pre in 8:50.

If the pace isn't really honest from the get-go, Maloy may have the advantage.

What about the NCAA champ Abbey D'Agostino? Well youthful naivety does have it's advantages but on paper with a 1,500 pb of 4:16, she just doesn't stack up with Maloy/Culley.

Updated LRC Prediction: The pace isn't very hot.

1) Lucas 2) Huddle 3) Maloy

PS. The women's 5000 is mid-d or distance event of the Trials where we'd be least stunned if the favorite didn't make the team. And the letstrun.com nation agrees with us as in the women's 800 Alysia Montano garnered 91.6% of the votes, in the women's 1500 Morgan Uceny 86.8%, in the steeple Emma Coburn 94.1% and 10,000 Shalane Flanagan 90.6%.

More: *LRC 5000 Prelim Recap *LRC Initial LRC Preview of 5000 *LRC Youtube Channel

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