What To Look For In Men's 5,000 Final at the 2012 US Olympic Track & Field Trials

Galen Rupp  Nike    12:58.90    
Bernard Lagat   Nike    13:07.15    
Lopez Lomong    Nike    13:11.63    
Andrew Bumbalough   Nike    13:16.26     

We guess it's possible someone else in the field might be able to get the 'A' but we don't see anyone beating those guys. And most likely, this race will end up being about the "Big 3" of Rupp, Lagat and Lomong. But don't tell that to Andrew Bumbalough. He and Rupp raced it in during the prelim and Bumbalough got Rupp at the line with a lean. We can logically see no reason how Bumbalough beats any of the top three when it counts in the final but there is a reason why they hold the race right?

Here is what we will be looking for in the men's 5,000 final.

1. Who sets the pace?

The former 1,500 runners Lagat and Lomong will be just fine with letting the pace dawdle. The onus logically would therefore be on Rupp, who stands at #3 in the world right now in the 5000 at 12:58.90, to make it honest so the race can be a test of fitness and not just closing speed.

The problem is it's asking a lot of Rupp to set the pace and then win at the end. But if the pace is slow, Rupp may be in trouble as the "Big 3" raced at 3000 indoors at USAs this year and results were emphatic - Lagat 1st, Lomong 2nd, and Rupp a distant third.

Will Rupp Be #1 Again on Thursday?

Will Rupp Wear His Mask?

But one thing we're wondering is,  'Will Rupp get some help from the rest of the field with the pace?' Will any of the five guys in the final - Benjamin True (13:26.02), Elliot Heath (13:26.14), Scott Bauhs (13:28.40), Stephen Furst (13:29.05), Robert Cheseret (13:29.62) who have run under 13:30 but not the "A" of 13:20.00  - help set the pace as they dream of somehow pulling a stunner themselves and getting top 3 and the "A"?

We don't think any of those guys are good enough to set the pace and get top three but maybe one or two of them will think, "Screw it. If I don't run under 13:20, I'm basically running in an exhibition as I can't go to London. So I'll take it for 4 or 5 laps at 4:15 pace and hope that Rupp takes it from there."

We don't think this will happen but they really ought to get together and say, "Let's all take a lap" and then draw straws as to which of the first five laps they take.

2. Does Rupp 0 for 12 streak against Lagat end?

A big story line at recent US champs the last few years has been, can Rupp finally beat Lagat?

All streaks are made to come to an end and each year Bernard Lagat gets older and each year Galen Rupp gets better and better, and yet, Rupp has still never come close to beating Lagat. Check out their career head to head results.

	Galen Rupp USA	Bernard Lagat USA
One Mile	Millrose New York NY 2008-02-01	4:02.17 (4)	3:57.51 (1)
1500 m	Norw Union Birmingham 2008-02-16	3:43.96 (11)	3:35.23 (1)
5000 m	BIG Boston MA 2010-02-06	13:14.21 (4)	13:11.50 (1)
3000 m	NC Albuquerque NM 2010-02-27	8:13.49A (2)	8:12.60A (1)
3000 m	WC Doha 2010-03-14	7:42.40 (5)	7:37.97 (1)
3000 m	Aviva London 2010-08-13	7:43.24 (5)	7:40.36 (1)
3000 m	Rieti 2010 Rieti 2010-08-29	7:50.46 (14)	7:29.00 (2)
3000 m	NC Albuquerque NM 2011-02-26	7:59.91A (2)	7:57.17A (1)
5000 m	NC Eugene OR 2011-06-24	13:25.52 (3)	13:23.06 (1)
5000 m	Herc Monaco 2011-07-22	DNF (0)	12:53.60 (2)
5000 m	WC Daegu 2011-09-04	13:28.64 (9)	13:23.64 (2)
3000 m	NC Albuquerque NM 2012-02-25	7:57.36A (3)	7:47.54A (1)
	Wins:	0	12

Only once has Rupp finished within 1-second of Lagat.

Last year, Rupp was in incredibly shape as he ran 26:48.00 later in the year yet he was beaten by 2.51 seconds in this race as Lagat ran his last 1,600 in 3:57.80 to beat Chris Solinsky and Rupp. Rupp's in even better shape this year and he's way better at 1,500 as his PB is now 3:34 but we still don't see how he wins this thing.

Update: 3. Will Rupp Wear His Mask (Be Effected By The Pollen)?

After completing this preview initially, we went for a run in sunny Eugene on Wednesday and could sense an increased pollen count. Sure enough, the map on pollen.com confirmed our suspicions. Now that the rain is gone, the pollen count is up substantially and will be so again on Thursday. The forecast is for a medium-high count of 8.2 on Thurday.

That certainly isn't going to help Rupp. We think he's going to be wearing his mask.

LRC Prediction: 0 for 13. 1) Lagat 2) Rupp 3) Lomong (if the first 1600 is under 4:20)
LRC Prediction: 0 for 13. 1) Lagat 2) Lomong 3) Rupp (if the first 1600 is over 4:20)

Those are the predictions we had before we knew about the pollen count. The pollen count certainly isn't going to help Rupp.