Men's 10,000m Final Preview: Mo Farah Takes On Kenenisa Bekele, Tadese, Sihine And Training Partner Galen Rupp

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By LetsRun.com
August 26, 2011

Kenenisa Bekele has never lost a 10,000m race in his life.

Yet Sunday night (Sunday morning in the US) at the World Championships in Daegu, he'll be a definite underdog when he toes the line for the men's 10,000m final. Not only is the injured Bekele racing for the first time in nearly two full years, he also is forced to face the hottest distance runner on the planet, Britain's Mo Farah.

Farah has burst onto to the top of the world ranks since switching over to US coach Alberto Salazar. Farah lost his first track race of 2011, an indoor 3,000m, losing to a guy with one shoe on. He then switched coaches and quickly has become the best in the world, going undefeated and running the top times in 2011 at 5,000m and 10,000m.

At the time of the switch, Farah said, "Last year was a great year for me and, if I'm ever going to get close to a medal in a World Champs or Olympics in 2012, something needed to change a little bit. I believe he can just make that 1-2% difference to get close to a medal." Things clearly have gone even better than expected, as Farah is now the gold medal favorite.

Farah may be the favorite, but Bekele is the greatest 10,000m runner ever. However, we think a medal by Bekele would be a monumental accomplishment. There is a reason Bekele has not raced in two years - he has been unable to because of injury. To expect Bekele to come in and challenge Farah would be downright crazy except for the fact Bekele is the greatest 10,000m man of all time.

Mr. Silver Sihine
That brings us to Mr. Silver Sileshi Sihine. If it wasn't for Kenenisa Bekele, Sihine would be a 3-time World Champion and 2-time Olympic Champion. Instead, he has 5 silver medals and gets little worldwide press attention because he is from the same country as Bekele. Sihine ran an impressive 12:57 in Rome in his first race back from injury and then was 6th at Prefontaine. Then earlier this month, LetsRun.com message board rumors circulated that his injuries had returned and he was going to miss Worlds. However, he is on the starting list. Sihine may have raced more this year than Bekele, but he missed the 2009 Worlds due to injury and most of 2010. No matter one's talent, it is hard to beat everyone else on the planet when you're not 100% and have not had consistent training over the last few years.

Looking beyond Farah and the questionable Bekele and Sihine, the biggest challenge could come from someone who Farah already beat this year, Eritrea's Zersenay Tadese. Tadese challenged Bekele over 10,000m at Worlds in 2009 and had to settle for silver, but the world half marathon record holder, four-time World road running champ, and former World XC champion has shown he is a championship performer. Tadese was fifth in the Prefontaine 10,000m that Farah won, but that just means Farah outkicked him over the last lap and Tadese had no reason to be sharp on the track in early June. More recently, on July 22nd, he came within .05 of his 5,000m PR, running 12:59.32 for the win in Spain to indicate his fitness and sharpness are likely here now. Tadese has never shown the ability to win a global 10,000m on the track, but he's had to race Kenenisa Bekele every time he has tried.

Ethiopian rival Imane Merga was the top 5,000m runner in 2010 and then followed that up by winning World XC. He made his 10,000m debut this year at Prefontaine. At the time, he was outkicked convincingly by Farah and people were surprised. Looking back at it, getting outkicked by the top distance runner in the world in your 10,000m debut is a very good debut. The problem for Merga is that he appears to have been sharper earlier in the year. After winning World XC, he won the Rome Diamond League meet then has gotten 2nd, 3rd and 4th in his subsequent 5,000m races. On paper it looks like a guy slowly losing form. Could the break for Worlds rejuvenate him? The Ethiopian team is rounded out by 2006 World Junior Champ Ibrahim Jeilan.

The Kenyans And An Opportunity For Galen Rupp
What about the Kenyans? Well, their team is led by Kenyan champ Peter Kirui, who did run 27:32 at altitude to win the Kenyan champs. As impressive as that win was, Kirui has a 13:15 5,000m PR. He may have to close faster than that if he wants a chance. Wilson Kiprop, the 2010 World Half Marathon and African 10,000m champ and the runner-up to Kirui at the Kenyan nationals, has the pedigree on paper to be a big-time contender, but he is injured - so that opens a spot for Paul Tanui, who was fourth at Pre. After making the World XC team in similar fashion as an alternate, he ended up with the silver medal, so he could be a darkhorse pick here, although Tadese beat him by 5 seconds over 5,000m in Barcelona. Martin Matathi rounds out the team and he does have a bronze in 2007, but has not shown the same ability since. By no stretch of the imagination is this a Kenyan team that evokes fear in the Worlds competitors. The biggest Kenyan distance stars are all enjoying far more lucrative careers at the 26.2 distance.

And that opens up an opportunity for America's hope Galen Rupp. Over the last two years, Rupp has developed the one thing lacking from his arsenal, a ferocious kick that is necessary to win races. When given the chance in 2011 to win races, Rupp has done just that. Rupp's training partner is Mo Farah, and Farah has said throughout 2011 that Rupp is at the same level he is. However, due to circumstance (pulling out of Pre due to allergies and falling in Monaco) Galen has not been able to show it.

Past history, however, gives us no reason to believe Rupp is at the same level as Farah until Rupp proves it on the track. Throughout their careers, Rupp and Farah have raced at distances from the mile to the half marathon and never has Galen Rupp finished ahead of Farah, and now Farah is much better than he ever was before. Now, Rupp was less than a second behind in a 5,000m earlier this year in Birmingham, where Rupp beat Merga, so the question for Rupp is, even if he is not better than Farah, is he better than everyone else in the field? Tadesse appears to be on form, but all the other Kenyan and Ethiopian competitors have serious question marks.

There are very few question marks about Rupp's form in 2011. Our only question concerning Rupp is if perhaps the over 50% humidity will bother the West coast-based runner. We doubt it, as he ran fine at the last Worlds.

Predictions: 1) Farah keeps the magic going 2) Tadese 3) Rupp Takes Advantage (If Bekele shows up in form, it's hard for us to see Rupp medalling, as we just don't see him beating any of the three big studs.)

Parting Thought #1: If Rupp medals, it's really an incredible accomplishment regardless of who or who isn't racing or in top form. In the first two Worlds in 1983 and 1987, Europeans won 5 of the first 6 medals awarded, but since 1991, Africans have gone a perfect 30-for-30 in the 10,000. We honestly have long thought we might never see an American born-runner win a medal at 10,000 in our lifetime.

Parting Thought #2: We're sure some you think we're crazy for saying that Bekele isn't the favorite, but the 2011 WC 10,000 is eerily similar to the 2001 WC race.

As LetsRun.com super-visitor David Graham pointed out to us in an email:

One interesting parallel between Geb (Haile Gebrslassie) and Bekele: in 2001, Geb was going for an unprecedented 5th World Title in the 10K. This year, if Bekele shows up at Worlds, he will also going for a 5th world title in the 10K. If he gets it, he'll be the first person in World Champs history to have 5 World titles in the same event in track. (In field events, I think Bubka got 6 in the pole vault and Lars Riedel 5 in the discus, but no one on the track has gotten more than four in one event ... Michael Johnson earned 8 gold [4 in the 400] and Carl Lewis earned 8 gold medals at the world champs, but no more than 3 in any one event ...)

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