Virgin London Women's Preview - Strong Field May Produce New Star

By LetsRun.com
April 22, 2010

2-time reigning London Marathon champion Irina Mikitenko of Germany is back to defend her crown in 2010. After her streak of marathon wins was snapped by Liliya Shobukhova last year in Chicago, Mikitenko will again face her new Russian nemesis along with a field that includes aging greats and some younger, lesser-known Africans, Asians and a former NCAA runner who hopes to complete her first marathon in fine style after an impressive half marathon last month.

Mikitenko-Shobukhova Round III
Mikitenko dealt with the sudden death of her father last year. She took time off from training and missed the Berlin World Championships before returning to marathoning with a solid but weaker-than-normal performance in Chicago. Shobukhova, a former track star with 14:20s 5k speed, won Chicago with an amazing finishing kick that was faster than even Sammy Wanjiru and the men could muster. We think these two are the only true heavyweights in the field who are still near the top of their game.

Aging Greats
Deena Kastor
, Mara Yamauchi, Constantina Dita and Lyudmila Petrova are examples of late-30s to early 40-somethings who are running well but not great. Of the four, we see Yamauchi with the best chance to hit the podium, followed by Petrova (who, at 41, still managed 3rd last year at ING NYC Marathon), Kastor and Dita (who, since the Olympic gold, can't run a high-quality time despite her best efforts). Yamauchi and Kastor faced each other at the NYC Half a few weeks ago with Kastor getting out very hard and eventually falling behind steady Yamauchi. Both ran solid 69s and have great experience in London. Yamauchi was 2nd last year and Kastor won London in 2:19 several years back. Deena is as inspiring an athlete as you can find, but we can't find a result in the past 2-3 years that says she is ready to defeat the best marathoners in the world.
*Note: Berhane Adere is a late addition to London. A 2-time Chicago champion with 2:20 pr, Adere (36) has not finished higher than 5th in a marathon in 27 months but did run 67:52 for a US Half Marathon all-comers record this year in New Orleans.

Runners Hoping To Join Teyba Erkesso, Shobukhova In "Younger-Than-35 Marathon Star Club"
Bai Xue of China won the World Championships marathon in 2009 and ran 2:23 in 2008. Only 21, another win in London would make her a bona fide star and put her in contention for the World Marathon Major jackpot. Kim Smith DNFed her first marathon but people forget how talented she is. She ran a 67:55 half marathon in New Orleans this year and has well under sub-15:00 5,000 track speed. At 28, she has the opportunity to raise her profile with a low-2:20s podium finish, which we think she can do.

Two Ethiopians, Mergia Aselefech (25) and Atsede Habtamu (22), could win this race. Proof: Aselefech ran a 67:22 half marathon this year at RAK. Habtamu won the 2009 Berlin Marathon and ran 68:30 half marathon in 2010. Those numbers are good enough to put either one of the young Ethiopians in contention for a breakthrough 2:22-2:21, which we think will be the winning time this year.

Yoshimi Ozaki of Japan also deserves mention, as she won silver last year in Berlin and has a 2:23 best. She's 28 and yet to win a major race, so she's still in the young, wanna-be-star crowd.

Predictions - You're Crazy Not To Go With Shobukhova
Despite no results from 2010, we are confident with Shobukhova and her deadly kick from Chicago as the top pick. Behind her, it's hard to say, but we'll go with the fast half marathoner Aselefech despite only a 2:25 PR.

LRC Predictions
1. Liliya Shobukhova 2:21
2. Mergia Aselefech 2:22 (67:22 for the half earlier in 2010)
3. Bai Xue
4. Irina Mikitenko
5. Kim Smith
6. Deena Kastor
A diverse top 6 from Russia, Ethiopia, China, Germany, New Zealand and USA.


LRC Stats And Ratings - Women's Virgin London Marathon Field

In our ongoing effort to give you the most pertinent information on the world's best runners at the world's best races, we present our breakdown of the women's field. Next to each runner's name should be their age, 2010 results, marathon PR, and best marathon performances of 2009.

To get a 5-star rating, you have to be a current world-beater.

4-star ratings are earned by current podium contenders who are not yet outright stars of the sport.

3-star runners are runners who are either 1. "over-the-hill greats" or 2. significant longshots for the win.


5-Star ... Current World-Beaters

Irina Mikitenko GER, 37 - 2-time reigning FLORA London Champ - WMM Champ - 2:19 PR from Real;- Berlin '08 - Injuries a concern - No results in 2010 - 2nd to Shobukhova in BoA Chicago '09

Liliya Shobukhova RUS, 32 - Our favorite, if fit - BoA Chicago '09 Champ - 2:24 PR - FLORA London '09 3rd-place - Amazing track speed (14:23 5,000) - No results in 2010


4-Star ... All Could Win

Mergia Aselefech ETH, 25 - World Marathon Bronze '09 - 2:25 best - *67:22* 3rd-place at RAK 2010

Bai Xue CHN, 21 - Reigning World Champ - 2:23 in 2008 (she's not a 5-star because she A) hasn't run under 2:23 and B) didn't beat anyone of super-high quality at the WCs)

Atsede Habtamu ETH, 22 - Dark Horse - Real;- Berlin '09 winner, 2:24 - 68:30 HM at RAK 2010

Mara Yamauchi GBR, 36 - 2nd in London in 2009 - Defeated Deena in NYC Half in 2010


3-Star ... Win Would Be Significant Upset

Kim Smith NZL, 28 - DNF in 1st marathon - Outstanding 67:55 in Rock 'n' Roll New Orleans in 2010

Berhane Adere ETH, 36 - 2:20 PR - 67:52 in Rock 'n' Roll New Orleans in 2010 - 2-time Chicago Champ - Not a win contender since Jan, 2008

Bezunesh Bekele ETH, 26 - 2:26, 4th in Dubai 2010 - 4th, JH Boston '09 - Dubai champ, '09 - 2:23 Best, Dubai '08

Deena Kastor USA, 37 - Sub-2:20 in London but no Sub-2:28 Since '06 - 69:43 HM in 2010 - 6th in BoA Chicago in fall '09

Lyudmila Petrova RUS, 41 - 2nd in New York in 2009 - Always podium threat in big marathons

Yoshimi Ozaki JPN, 28 - 2:23, 1st, Tokyo 2008 - World Champs Marathon Silver '09 - 70 minute Half in 2010

Svetlana Zakharova RUS, 40 - 4th in FLORA London '09 - No 2010 results

Constantina Dita ROM, 40 - Disaster 74-minute half in Lisbon 2010 - Little success since '08 Olympic gold

Maria Konovalova RUS, 35 - Marathon debut - 14:38 5,000 speed - Moderate international XC success

 

Quantcast

Tell a friend about this article
(Dont worry we won't email your friend(s) again. We send them a 1 time email)
Enter their email address(es), separated by a comma.
Enter your name:

Don't Worry: We
Back to Main Front Page
Questions, comments or suggestions?Please email the LetsRun.com staff at suggestions@LetsRun.com.



Runner's World &
Running Times


Combined Only $22

a Year
Save $87



Running & Track and Field Posters


Search the Web
or LetsRun.com
Google

Web

LRC



More Nice Offers:
Nike Lunar Glide Savings Super popular shoe from Nike featuring Flywire and Lunar Foam

*Nike Air Max Moto Sale $69.99 for this shoe from our partner.


Back To Top