2009 COMRADES MARATHON PREVIEW
By Riel Hauman
(c) 2009 Race Results Weekly, all rights reserved
The last time the Comrades Marathon was held on May 24 -which used to
be Empire Day in South Africa- was in 1951. The last time a runner
scored three victories in a row was in 1988 when Bruce Fordyce bagged
the final of his eight successive wins. Double record holder Leonid
Shvetsov could therefore make the 2009 Comrades a momentous occasion if
he wins the down run between Pietermaritzburg and Durban on Sunday.
Shvetsov, who turned 40 a month before the Comrades, won the last down
run two years ago and then also took the up run last year, setting
new records in both races. The last man to hold both records before
that was -no surprise here- Fordyce, until 1998 when Dmitri Grishine
took his up record away.
The 84th Comrades will be 89.17 km long, starting in front of the
Pietermaritzburg City Hall and finishing in the Sahara Kingsmead
Stadium in Durban. The race was moved to May 24 to avoid clashing with
the FIFA Confederations Cup, which takes place in Durban on June 14-29.
The Comrades was held on May 24 from its inception in 1921 until (and
including) 1951. In recent years it has been run on Youth Day, June 16,
or the Sunday closest to that date.
Shvetsov first ran the Comrades in 2001, a down run, and finished
second. The next year he was a lowly 423rd, and did not return until
2007. He was a different runner then and broke Fordyces 21-year-old
record for the down run with his magnificent 5:20:49.
In the 2008 up run he established another record, 5:24:47, but although
his victory margin of 13:41 was the biggest since 1983, he was visibly
suffering over the last 2 km and not nearly as smooth as in 2007.
Shvetsovs current form is uncertain; his only known performance for
the year is 2:25:50 in the Standard Chartered Hong Kong Marathon in
early February. He is now two years older than during the previous
scintillating down run, but on the strength of his last two appearances
in the Comrades one will not find many people who would bet against him.
He is by far the fastest marathoner of the top contenders and ran
2:10:59 as recently as 2006, in the Lake Biwa Mainichi Marathon, where
he was fourth. Apart from the Comrades, his best race in 2008 was 7th
in the Lifestyle Sports adidas Dublin Marathon in 2:16:17.
Even if he does not improve on his record for the down run, it is
likely that the record in the 40+ age category, Vladimir Kotovs
5:27:22 of 2001, will fall.
Kotov, who won three up runs in a row (2000, 2002 and 2004), struggled
with injuries in 2008 and did not run the Two Oceans Marathon over 56
km this year. As usual, he did his final preparations for the Comrades
in Europe, and although he prefers the up run and is not quite fast
enough anymore to challenge the top runners, he will be a factor in the
50+ category. He was eighth last year and 20th in the previous down run.
Shvetsovs main challenge will most likely come from Oleg Kharitonov,
an ultramarathon specialist who won in 2006. Kharitonov is almost
exactly a year older than Shvetsov and finished second and sixth in the
last two down runs. He has broken 6½ hours for 100 km and in 2007 was
third in the World 100 km Championships.
He is, like Kotov, a better up runner, but in the 2005 down run clocked
5:29:15 just more than 2 minutes behind winner Sipho Ngomane.
Kharitonovs best marathon time of 2:17:50 dates from 2002; last year
he ran 2:30:55 in the Standard Chartered Mumbai Marathon.
Jaroslaw Janicki, older than both Kharitonov and Shvetsov, will not be
far behind. The Pole won in 1999 also a down run and last year was
second (the same position he also filled in the IAU World Cup 100 km).
He has a rather up and down record (no pun intended) in the Comrades
but although he was well beaten in 2008, he is always a tough nut to
crack maybe not for Shvetsov, but certainly for the rest of the field.
Among the South Africans the top contenders should be Lucas Nonyana
(38th in 2008 and 9th in the previous down run), Peter Muthubi (31st
last year), who wants to bounce back from a poor Two Oceans, Peter
Molapo (17th), Mncedisi Mkhize (7th), Sipho Ngomane (30th), Melikhaya
Sithuba (12th), Harmans Mokgadi (6th and first South African), Claude
Moshiywa (19th), Mabule Rhapotle (11th), Godrey Sesenyamotse (14th),
and Joseph Molaba.
The only factor counting against Nonyana, whose training reportedly has
gone very well, is that he has already won two ultramarathons this year
the Om die Dam 50 km in 2:55:50 and the Long Tom 56 km in 3:30:47. On
top of this he has run three marathons, with the Wally Hayward race
only three weeks ago.
An inexperienced Comrades runner he was 61st in his first Comrades
last year who could spring a surprise is Frans Kutu, who was fifth in
the Long Tom 56 km.
And then there is debutant Marco Mambo. After three wins in the Two
Oceans (2004, 2005 and 2008), he was beaten in the Cape Town ultra six
weeks ago by Kenyan John Wachira. He has had some disappointing runs in
the Two Oceans and this year made a tactical mistake by running down
Chapmans Peak too fast.
If he does not let himself be pulled into the early charges and rather
play a waiting game and if the Two Oceans, which was much closer to
the Comrades this year than it usually is, has not taken too much out
of him then a gold medal is a distinct possibility for the Zimbabwean.
Other top Zimbabwean entrants are Prodigal Khumalo (16th last year),
Stephen Muzhingi (3rd), Wellington Chidodo and Sipho Ncube. Among the
challengers from Lesotho Leboka Noto (21st in 2008) stands out.
Olesya or Elena? While the Nurgalieva twins seem to be untouchable in
the Two Oceans, they have been vulnerable in the Comrades in the past.
In 2005 two down runs ago they were beaten by Tatyana Zhirkova, who
was third behind them last year. Elena won then, as she has done in
2003, 2004 and 2006.
Zhirkova was also third in 2006 and in 2003, and will certainly again
present a formidable challenge to the sisters. She won the IAU World
Cup 100 km in 2008, running 7:23:33, and was third in the Two Oceans.
It should also be remembered that she has the third fastest time ever
for the down run the 5:58:51 she ran in 2005 to join Frith van der
Merwe and Ann Trason as the only runners who have completed the down
run in under 6 hours.
She will not be alone in tackling the twins, however. Marina Bychkova
has an exemplary record in the Comrades she has finished in the top
five on eight occasions, with a best of second in 2004 and 2006. The
only blemish on her record is a DNF in 2007, the last down run.
Zhirkova may be the stronger runner, but if they can put the twins
under enough pressure, it could become an interesting tussle.
There is a fifth Russian who should be in the fray as well: Marina
Myshlyanova, who was fifth and fourth in the last two races and last
year beat Bychkova. Although she was more than 13 minutes behind
third-placed Zhirkova, the 42-year-old from Chelyabinsk can be among
the top five again.
All South African eyes will be on Riana van Niekerk. The Pretoria
runner, who eschewed the Two Oceans this year to concentrate on the
Comrades, last year broke Farwa Mentoors six-year stranglehold on the
top South African position when she was sixth in 6:43:31.
Van Niekerk, the current SA marathon champion, failed to finish the
last down run, but expectations are that she will do much better this
time. She did not run as many hard marathons as in pevious years,
although she won the Om die Dam 50 km and was second in the Loskop 50
km.
Mentoor will be there again and expressed her confidence after the Two
Oceans, where she ran sub-4 hours and placed fourth. She was followed
by Adinda Kruger, and they will make sure that Van Niekerk does not
have things her own way.
One of the trio could even finish in the top five if they can overcome
their awe of the Russians. Mentoor has achieved this more than once and
was fourth in the last down run behind the twins and Madina Biktagirova.
Among the other top South Africans are Lesley Train, Paulina Phaho and Lindsey van Aswegen.
The race has attracted 12,829 entries (10,542 men and 2287 women), the
most since 2005. The oldest runner will be Martin Weidemann, who is 78.
The average age of the male runners is 41 years and of the women 40.
Prize money for the first man and woman is R220,000 (USD 26,400), with
second place half of that. The first SA citizen (man and woman) will
win R125,000 (USD 15,000), while the incentive for breaking Shvetsovs
or Van der Merwes record (which has stood at 5:54:43 since 1989) is
R250,000 (USD 30,000). The first ten men and women receive gold medals,
those from position 11 to sub-6 hours Wally Hayward medals, from 6
hours to sub-7:30 silver, from 7:30 to sub-9 hours Bill Rowan, from 9
hours to sub-11 hours bronze, and from 11 hours to sub-12 hours Vic
Clapham medals.