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LetsRun.com's 2009 IAAF Berlin World Championships Preview By LetsRun.com When: August 21 (finals), 19 (qualifiers) The men's high jump competition in Berlin will feature many men capable of medaling. Handicapping the field initially seems difficult, as 18 men have jumped between 2.35m and 2.30m in the 2009 outdoor season. But with history as our guide, we try to make sense of the log jam and present our favorites in the muddled event. The high jump is an event where you have many guys who get lucky and jump over 2.30m once in a while, and you have the select few individuals who can consistently better the 2.30 barrier, especially in crunch time at the major competitions. At first glance, the high jump looks to be a battle between the USA and Russia, as jumpers from the two global superpowers occupy the top 5 positions on the 2009 world list. Comparing the two national teams, we give an enormous edge to Russia with their trio of Ivan Ukhov, Yaroslav Rybakov (pictured above with the mullet) and Andrey Tereshin. All three have bested 2.33m this year outdoors, and they finished 1-2-3 in the Russian Trials at 2.35, 2.35 and 2.33. Russia's reigning Olympic champion Andrey Silnov will miss Berlin due to injury. Ukhov is a wild card. Only 23 years old, he is yet to battle at a major global championship. His maturity and poise are certainly question marks after last year's drunken high jumping. But he may well win the competition if his mid-season form continues in to August. Ukhov came through at the pressure-packed Russian Trials by jumping a huge height to defeat his rivals, who make up a good portion of the world's top jumpers. Rybakov is perhaps the odds-on favorite, having medaled almost a dozen times in major international championships. He has the ability, the poise, and the experience factors leaning in his favor. Tereshin is also a World Championships medal winner from the 2006 indoor competition. Russian high-jumping fans will be glad to not see the man to the left, Sweden's Stefan Holm, competing any longer. Holm was a master at beating the Russians to WC medals, especially indoors. The American men are led by Andra Manson, who shares the world lead at 2.35m this year. Next comes Eugene native Jesse Williams at 2.34m and Princeton grad Tora Harris at 2.31m. But the lists don't tell the whole story. Manson has not cleared 2.29m in the last 3 months, and Harris will do well to make the final. Williams, however, is a really complicated story. He's not officially on the US team, as he was 4th at the trials (Keith Moffatt is the 3rd American entered). But hopefully somebody drops out and Williams will get to jump because he's the only American performing like he has a chance of medaling. Williams got a huge boost from his performance at the DN Galan in Stockholm, where he bested basically the same field he would meet in the Berlin final. He beat Rybakov, Ukhov, Manson and the rest. Initially we had written off the Americans, but we think Williams should be thinking medal in Berlin, if he somehow gets entered. Believe it or not, there are viable competitors from countries other than the US and Russia. We think Czech jumper Jaroslav Bába will contend as he did when he medaled in the 2004 Olympics, as will former world champion Donald Thomas (BAH), LRC Predictions: Men's HJ Statistical Analysis By LRC Guru John Kellogg 2.35 Andra Manson (USA) (= #10 all-time USA) Bronze medal in 2008 World Indoor Championships
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