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LRC: 2008 Men's NCAA Division One Regional Cross-Country Previews Ed.: LetsRun.com coaching guru John Kellogg used all of his OCD powers to break down all 9 NCAA regions and amazingly comes up with top 25 individual predictions for each and every one of them. We know there are bound to be mistakes (namely, completely overlooking an obvious stud or two, or including a D2 athlete by mistake), but we'd love to see you do a better job yourself. Northeast The Southeast Regional will provide us with another glimpse at NCAA favorite Sam Chelanga of Liberty. The Flames have little shot of advancing as a team, but the running world would be shocked if they don't walk away with the individual champion. How will Chelanga attack the race?
The likely team champions will be Jason Vigilante's Virginia Cavaliers, fresh off of their ACC title two weeks ago. But a letdown after conference might lose the region for UVA, as William & Mary and North Carolina State may be firing on all cylinders coming into the season's first 10k race. W&M had an easy time at conference after taking 6th in the Blue section at Pre-Nationals. They have a deep team with good frontrunners and could win the thing, their chances bolstered a bit if a full-strength Ben Massam returns to action. In any case, they are going to Terre Haute on the strength of their 6th at Pre-Nats even if they get third here. NC State seems to have more pressure on their shoulders to get in the top 2, as they didn't do as well as W&M at Pre-Nats (they were only 10th, beating potential NCAA qualifiers Notre Dame and Butler). But the Wolfpack is coming on strong with the addition of Gavin Coombs at ACCs, where they defeated previously-ranked Florida State and a solid Virginia Tech team.
It's going to be a great 3-team battle between UVA, W&M and NC State, with Va. Tech probably in 4th. Individual qualifiers will likely be Chelanga of Liberty, Joseph Maina of Eastern Kentucky, Devin Cornwall of Virginia Tech, and either Adu Dentamo of Charlotte, Bo Waggoner of Duke or Patrick Cheptoek of Western Kentucky.
LRC Top 25 Individual Picks Sam Chelanga (Liberty) Ryan Foster (Virginia) Joseph Maina (Eastern Kentucky) Jon Grey (William & Mary) Bobby Mack (North Carolina State) Devin Cornwall (Virginia Tech) Adu Dentamo (Charlotte) Colin Leak (William & Mary) Ryan Collins (Virginia) (10) John Martinez (North Carolina State) Patterson Wilhelm (William & Mary) Patrick Cheptoek (Western Kentucky) Andy Biladeau (Virginia) Emil Heineking (Virginia) Bo Waggoner (Duke) Ryan Hill (North Carolina State) Adam Henken (Kentucky) Jordan McDougal (Liberty) Gavin Coombs (North Carolina State) (20) Matt Llano (Richmond) Billy Berlin (Virginia Tech) Andrew Benford (Richmond) Mike Hammond (Virginia Tech) Jesse Cherry (High Point) Evans Kiptoo (Eastern Kentucky) Ben Massam (William & Mary) ? LRC Team Picks Virginia 65 William & Mary 78 North Carolina State 81 Virginia Tech South Alabama-rama! Tide and Tigers to roll and maul the competition. Will Florida State qualify for NCAAs as a team, or will their late-season woes continue? It seemed ludicrous just a few weeks ago to even suggest that the FSU Seminoles cross-country team will be relying on at-large points to get to the big dance. They won the Notre Dame meet, then were 4th in their section at Pre-Nats without ace Luke Gunn - two phenomenal performances! But after a disastrous showing at ACCs, where the boys from Tallahassee (we can just hear Keith Jackson's legendary voice) only finished 4th, Florida State will need to get back on the horse in a hurry. If Gunn returns to top form (he set an FSU all-time best of 23:35 in taking 4th at Notre Dame), he represents a threat to break up the African juggernaut and finish in the top 5, in which case, FSU will probably be in good shape. Otherwise, cross-state rival Florida could sneak up to third, leaving FSU in a bit-too-precarious 4th in the South Regional. If that situation does occur, Florida will almost certainly make Nationals by getting pushed in by an FSU team with a ton of at-large points.
Individually, the Africans of Alabama and Auburn are going to wage another great battle two weeks removed from SECs. At the league meet, Auburn freshman Girma Mesecho took it to veterans Tyson David and Augustus Maiyo of Alabama, among others. We think 10k should favor experience and elder runners, but we'll have to wait to see the final results before we fully count out Mesecho. Assuming Alabama, Auburn, Florida and Florida State all make NCAAs, then the at-large individual qualifiers will likely come from the following runners: CAA champ Mark Steeds (Georgia St.), Micah Tirop (S. Alabama), Adam Lenz and Robert Scribner of Mississippi St., Kenneth Rotich (E. Tennessee St.) and Michael Spooner and Andrew Press of Tennessee.
LRC Top 25 Individual Picks Tyson David (Alabama) Girma Mesecho (Auburn) Felix Kiboiywo (Auburn) Augustus Maiyo (Alabama) Elkanah Kibet (Auburn) Emmanuel Bor (Alabama) Jeremy Criscione (Florida) Mark Steeds (Georgia State) Micah Tirop (South Alabama) (10) Matt Leeder (Florida State) Abraham Kutingala (Alabama) Luke Gunn (Florida State) Steeve Gabart (Florida State) Justin Taylor (Florida) Adam Lenz (Mississippi State) Robert Scribner (Mississippi State) Andrew Kirwa (Alabama) Kenneth Rotich (East Tennessee State) Sean Blaney (Florida) (20) Michael Spooner (Tennessee) Nick Sunseri (Florida State) Andrew Press (Tennessee) Scott Novack (Auburn) Benjamin Ronoh (East Tennessee State) Kyle Lewis (Mississippi) LRC Team Picks Alabama 1-4-6-11-17 = 39 Auburn Florida State Florida Great Lakes The Great Lakes Regional is always an interesting meet where teams from several conferences battle it out for bids to Nationals. The major conference presence is clearly the Big Ten, with annual power monger Wisconsin at the front of the list, followed by a strong Michigan team and solid squads from Indiana and Michigan State. This year, Notre Dame is the only other team in the region ranked in the top 30 nationally, though in the past Butler, Eastern Michigan and Miami (OH) have had more nationally-competitive squads. Wisconsin is coming off of their first Big 10 team victory under former Iona coach Mick Byrne. After the meet in Ann Arbor, Byrne credited Wisconsin runner Landon Peacock for breaking the race open early on and weakening the Wolverines enough in the final kilometers so the Badgers could catch them. Peacock went on to finish second at Big Tens, so he'll surely be looking to get the win this time. He'll have a tough time as he'll be facing Patrick Smyth of Notre Dame. Smyth also finished second at his league meet, Big Easts, after blocking the wind for 7.5k for Georgetown standout Andrew Bumbalough before Bumbi dispatched the Fighting Irishman easily in the homestretch. It will be interesting to see which one, if any, of these two, Peacock and Smyth, will push the pace early. We think if we had just gone out and led a good chunk of our league meet only to get mercilessly eaten alive at the end, we might try to sit and kick on someone at Regionals.
As regards teams, Wisco and Michigan are going to NCAAs. But Notre Dame, Michigan State and Indiana are totally on the bubble. Indiana ran terribly at Big Tens, Notre Dame looked pretty good at Big Easts (but beating Villanova, Providence and Syracuse doesn't mean as much as it would have 2 months - or 2 years - ago), and Michigan State looks every bit the part of a bubble NCAA team. Look for 2 of the 3 bubble sitters to bounce into Nationals, leaving 1 (we're predicting Indiana) with a sticky, soapy residue.
Individually, we've already mentioned Smyth (that's Irish for "Smith," by the way) vs. Peacock. But to omit mention of 2003 Foot Locker Champion Matt Withrow would go against every rule of journalism. Withrow has it all. Prep phenom, nationally-recognized name, 3-time XC All-American (9th as a freshman!), long list of challenging injuries, big-time team, senior year, missed the top 20 at conference, perhaps rounding into form ... you get it; it will be interesting to see where he ends up both at the Regional and at Nationals.
LRC Top 25 Individual Picks Patrick Smyth (Notre Dame) Landon Peacock (Wisconsin) Sean McNamara (Michigan) Andy Baker (Butler) Josh Karanja (Eastern Michigan) Christian Wagner (Wisconsin) Craig Forys (Michigan) Jack Bolas (Wisconsin) Ciaran O'Lionard (Michigan) (10) Matt Withrow (Wisconsin) Brennon Plotner (Indiana) Justin Switzer (Michigan) Stuart Eagon (Wisconsin) Ben Hubers (Indiana) Craig Miller (Wisconsin) Pat Sovacool (Miami, OH) Rob Mullett (Butler) Jake Walker (Notre Dame) Patrick Grosskopf (Michigan State) (20) Brandon Fellows (Michigan) Spencer Beatty (Michigan State) Taylor Williams (Ohio State) Joe Miller (Notre Dame) Adam Sprangel (Michigan State) Tim McLeod (Indiana) LRC Team Picks Wisconsin 2-6-8-10-13 = 39 Michigan 3-7-9-12-20 = 51 Notre Dame
Michigan State
Indiana
Butler Midwest One of our favorite Regional Championships is the Midwest, simply because we'll get to see 2nd-ranked Oklahoma State again, this time over a 10k course against some new competition. Up next for German Fernandez and Co. are Minnesota's Hassan Mead (2008 Big Ten Champion) and Tulsa's John Beattie (2008 Conference USA Champion). Don't look for a tight team battle for spot numero uno; Ok. State could very well tally the lowest score at any of the Regional Championships this year. Save your scrutiny for the Cowboys' pack. They appear to be the only team that could dethrone Oregon at NCAAs, so look closely at how freshman studs Fernandez and Colby Lowe are holding up late in their first collegiate season. Besides powerhouse Ok. St., look for a good team race between nationally-ranked teams from Iowa State (#21), Tulsa (#15) and Minnesota (#14). Iowa State is led by Kiel Uhl, Guor Marial and Hillary Bor, three interesting names if we do say so ourselves. We hope they make it as they may have the most uniquely-named individuals in the history of NCAA cross-country. The bulk of the top finishers in this region should come from the four nationally-ranked teams. Notable individuals who have mixed it up with the region's best this season include Iowa's Jesse Luciano (14th at Griak, 9th at Big 10) and Jeff Schirmer of S. Illinois (23:49 for 3rd at the Greater Louisville Classic, beating several nationally-competitive runners, also MVC champion in a course record). Jonah Lagat of Oral Roberts got off to a slow start this season but has come on of late to look like a top 15 runner with his 23:53 Summit League victory over S. Utah's Cameron Levins. LRC Top 25 Individual Picks German Fernandez (Oklahoma State) John Kosgei (Oklahoma State) Hassan Mead (Minnesota) John Beattie (Tulsa) Ryan Vail (Oklahoma State) Chris Rombough (Minnesota) Colby Lowe (Oklahoma State) Kiel Uhl (Iowa State) David Chirchir (Oklahoma State) (10) Guor Marial (Iowa State) Jesse Luciano (Iowa) Jeff Schirmer (Southern Illinois) Jonah Lagat (Oral Roberts) Dan Hedgecock (Missouri) Eddie Henshaw (Tulsa) Jacob Nachtel (Illinois) Matt Barrett (Minnesota) Hillary Bor (Iowa State) Matt Barnes-Smith (Oklahoma State) (20) Mike Torchia (Minnesota) Eric MacTaggart (Iowa) Daniel Watts (Oklahoma State) Matt Mroczynski (Illinois State) Lewis Timmins (Tulsa) Garett Jeffries (Missouri) LRC Team Picks Oklahoma State 1-2-5-7-9 = 24 Minnesota 72 Tulsa 80 Iowa State 102 South Central Redemption for Arkansas?
After seeing their 34-season conference XC winning streak come to an end just two weeks ago, the Arkansas Razorback men will be running with nothing to lose in the South Central Regional. Four weeks ago at the Chile Pepper Invitational, the Texas A&M Aggies rolled into Fayetteville and roasted the Hogs on their home turf. It will be interesting to see which team comes out on top in the rematch. It looks like only two teams will advance from this region (Texas A&M and Arkansas are the likely candidates), as Lamar has barely fallen short of the depth to get in the top 2 and the Texas Longhorns seem to have been de-horned this year. Look out for Lamar, especially if Arkansas decides to push the pace like wild animals as they did at SECs. The individual NCAA qualifiers from the South Central will probably all hail from Kenya. Lamar's Samuel Kosgei is 2-for-2 this season (Notre Dame, Chile Pepper) vs. 2007 NCAA 10,000m champ and two-time XC All-American Shadrack Songok of Texas A&M (formerly of A&M-Corpus Christi), and these two should duke it out again for the Regional individual crown, with fellow Kenyans Francis Kasagule (Lamar), Festus Kigen (TCU) and Kalphys Kemboi (SE La.) trying to stay close. Arkansas leader Scott MacPherson should also be in the fight for a top 3 finish.
Interesting note: of all the regions, the South Central, a region loaded with Kenyans and other foreigners, has the lowest-ranked #1 team (Texas A&M at #22) and has only 2 ranked teams. We don't really think this means anything; we just find it a bit odd. Look out for negative-splitting Colorado and Mark Wetmore's late season magic. If the race was on a hilly course at altitude, we'd definitely say the Buffaloes had a chance to upset NAU by coming on strong in the final kilometers. But the course is flat and NAU will probably be too footloose for Colorado or BYU to handle with any tactical maneuvering. Hmmm, a flat, fast 10k on grass. Sounds like UTEP's Kenyans might have a shot after all at reclaiming some of the glory that has appeared to wane this year. New Mexico also has a good squad that could surprise some people if everybody is healthy. Led by Jacob Kirwa (19th at Pre-Nats), the Lobos missed David Bishop for part of the season, but if he is back and running well, UNM could figure into the already tightly-bunched team race. Could be a very interesting team picture when all is said and done! NCAA West Regional Cross Country 2008 - Rupp Certified!
We predict a Rupp win, an Oregon win, and a tight race for 2nd and 3rd between Portland and Stanford, two teams that will fight for a podium spot at NCAAs. There could be a great freshman battle over 10k cross-country between Oregon's Luke Puskedra and Stanford's Chris Derrick. Also, California, Washington, Cal Poly and UCLA will be in a dogfight for places 4, 5, 6 and 7 in the team race. These places could be crucial for NCAA qualifying for the four ranked teams.
The West region has 7 ranked teams, including 3 in the top 4 in the nation (Oregon #1, Stanford #3 and Portland #4, with Cal, Cal Poly, Washington and UCLA behind). To show how close the team battle may be, Cal, Washington and UCLA all scored between 104 and 106 points at PAC-10s! And Cal Poly, the only team of the 4 not in the PAC-10, is ranked 1 spot ahead of Cal in the national poll! We aren't going to go into some long-winded guessing game with at-large points; there are simply too many scenarios. From what we've seen from the other regions, all 7 of the ranked teams in the West deserve to be at NCAAs. So strong is this region that individuals who would have no trouble placing in the top 15 or even top 10 of most other regions may not find themselves in the top 25 here. While we may have accidentally overlooked a stud or two in this region (and a few other regions), we are definitely aware of several very good runners that we've left off the top 25 list because we just think the guys we picked have a better shot. What a stud-filled region!
LRC Top 25 Individual PicksGalen Rupp (Oregon) Garrett Heath (Stanford) Shadrack Kiptoo-Biwott (Oregon) David Kinsella (Portland) Luke Puskedra (Oregon) Chris Derrick (Stanford) Alfred Kipchumba (Portland) Yosef Ghebray (California) Paul Limpf (Eastern Washington) (10) Jake Riley (Stanford) Drew Shackleton (UCLA) Andrew Wheating (Oregon) Tommy Betterbed (Portland) Jeremy Mineau (Washington) Matt Centrowitz, Jr. (Oregon) Laef Barnes (UCLA) Hakon DeVries (Stanford) Matt Frerker (Portland) Mark Matusak (California) (20) Curtis Suver (Oregon) Jake Schmitt (Washington) Danny Mercado (Oregon) Alex Smyth (Eastern Washington) Scott Smith (UC-Santa Barbara) Drew Polley (Washington State) LRC Team Picks Oregon 1-3-5-12-15 = 36 Stanford 62 Portland 71 California Cal Poly Washington UCLA Errors, omissions, questions, comments or suggestions? Please email the LetsRun.com staff at suggestions@LetsRun.com.
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