Where Your Dreams Become Reality
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Where Your Dreams Become Reality |
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The 2005 Grote Poll: The Grote Poll Regional Preview 2005 Grote Polls The Grote Poll Regional Preview For the top squads this week is the beginning two 10k's in 9 days for the title, while for many this week brings a disappointing end, and for many more a merciful end. This week will be a region by region look with predictions for auto and at-large qualifiers, with total disregard to the last Grote Poll Top 31. It will be based on hunches and biases. It will be full of untruths, disrespect, poor grammar, immaturity, pointlessness, and utter nonsense, yet still I'm right and I'm right. A moment to reflect on the end of the season for Gaylord
In all seriousness, I hope the injury is not serious, and have one thing to blame for the injury, one obvious glaring thing: RUNNING. Many people don't want to admit this (trust me, its obvious in my line of work) but usually the cause of running injuries is: RUNNING. Sometimes running too hard, or too far, or too fast, or the running shoes contribute and many want to blame the running coach, or the running father figure from the Running Monopoly Company in Beaverton, Oregon, but the common theme here is: RUNNING. Gaylord is hurt because of RUNNING. If he didn't do the running, he wouldn't be hurt and prevented from RUNNING. It happens to the best of them, and to the worst of them. This injury is a shame, as Gaylord is a talent and good competitor and would have added a lot of intrigue to the NCAA field. I believe the NCAA Cross-Country Championships to be the greatest race in the US, and the greatest sporting event I have ever attended, so it's a shame that Gaylord will miss them this year. It was a shame that he missed them last year, too, but LeBron James missed them as a pro, as well. As many great things as young Gaylord has accomplished and seen through running, I think one of the greatest will be to compete at the NCAA Cross-Country Championships. Until then, get healthy, stay healthy, and beware RUNNING is hard and dangerous and spooky. With that said, on to the Grote Poll Regional Preview, things will not be as cut and dry as last week's Grote Poll Top 31, but I will reference team's rankings parenthetically. This Grote Poll Regional Preview is actually a forecast and prediction, and way of attempting to figure out which 31 teams will be in Terre Haute. Next week I will attempt to determine their order of finish. For now, I will stick with Arkansas winning and Matt Withrow winning. THE GROTE POLL REGIONAL PREVIEW NORTHEAST This appears to be a two team region, with two clear cut favorites and the outsiders having little hope for an at-large. 1. IONA (16)- They look to be putting it together 2 10k's in 9 days. Their top 3 should be better than Dartmouth's, and Khadroui is a big gun waiting to go off. I still feel the Gaels will be a top 10 team, perhaps threatening the top 4-5. Beware of the Slurpees in Sleepy Hollow this time of year, those things make you shiver when its 95 and humid. 2. DARTMOUTH (18)- Probably the best team Dartmouth has had since 1994, with now Dr. Langan and father of 3 almost 4 on the squad. Ben True could still challenge for the win. The one plus they have is that they have raced more consistently as a squad than Iona. 3. PROVIDENCE- Potential winner in Fagan, and a good 1-2, but the Friars are cooked if they can't sneak into an auto spot. They lost to many teams early at Griak, lost to EMU, American, and Duquesne at Penn State instead of going to Pre-Nats, and have wins over Louisville and Villanova from the Big East meet, which won't do much unless either of those two teams surprise and wind up on the bubble. 4. BROWN- Having a solid year, nice run at Heps from NJ soph Ari Zamir. They seem to always be around here in the hunt, but the top 2 are too good and they lack the at-large credentials. 5. COLUMBIA- No Mainland, no Terre Haute. 6. ARMY- Nice season, 2nd at Patriot League, beat Navy, could challenge for 4th or even 3rd here. 7. CORNELL- Apparently Hyde is injured? Know who's or what is at fault for that??? Running. Once Grote Poll rankers, now they are struggling mightily, not even Mainland can save them. Although shaving the head would help. 8. UNH 9. YALE 10. BC INDIVIDUAL RACE- I will give the slight not to Iona's Kiplagat over Fagan of Providence. True is running tough, but if those two really get out and roll, there should be a gap. Individual contenders for berths should be Fagan, Haji, Washburn of Brown, Hyde if healthy, Marcus from Columbia and possibly Colgate's Hanlon. MID-ATLANTIC There should be a solid two autos, but they are not bulletproof and some bubble threats do not have great at-large cases. This should be a 3 team region, and perhaps even 4, but 2 is also not out of the question. 1. GEORGETOWN (12)- The Hoyas are running well, the loss to ND at Big East is far from shameful. They should win here and could be a top 10 team. 2. AMERICAN (22)- For the second year in a row, they romped through the Patriot League, but slipping to 3rd could be costly as they did not go to Pre-Nats and lost to EMU at Penn State, who may get an at-large, but not likely one of the first ones handed out. I'd be far more surprised if AU was 3rd than if they won, this is a tough, young, highly motivated team, I'd expect Hallinan and Fennell near the front and G'town to sweat a bit. 3. *PRINCETON- All season long, I've been excluding them and ranking them behind high school teams. This is a good squad. Their Pre-Nats showing wasn't tremendous, with wins over Colorado State, Michigan State, and Indiana State standing out, but they didn't kill themselves, either. Perhaps a squad like Liberty or Arizona State could run well in their region, furthering Princeton's cause. The solid run at Heps suggests that they should be a notch ahead of the rest of this region, but it is close. 4. DUQUESNE- Nice story for the Dukes, really a pretty tough squad, that could very well wind up 3rd. While they haven't beaten many for at-large points, they also haven't lost to many either. Still EMU beat them at Penn State, and unless they get an auto, despite the nice A-10 win, this is probably it for them. 5. LA SALLE- Another early Grote Poll ranker fallen on moderately difficult times. Losing the conference was not a good follow-up to a drubbing at Pre-Nats. The Explorers have gone from a likely qualifier or 3rd and at-large to a team that if it runs well could wind up 3rd and block Princeton. 6. UPENN- They ran very well at regionals last year. 3 NJ guys in their top 4, and virtually no chance of an at-large. 7. VILLANOVA- A tough year, better times are sure to come. A sleeping giant waits to awaken pardon the pun Mr. Curtis. 8. NAVY 9. LEHIGH 10. PENN STATE INDIVIDUAL RACE- I will take DeBole from Georgetown to win, with Hower close, and American's Hallinan close. Individual qualifiers go down out of the top 10, however LaSalle's Quigley could contend for the win. Mid-Distance guy Jaworski of UPenn figures to earn a spot. SOUTHEAST With NC State running at less than full strength and other programs having less than stellar years, this should be a two team region, but two good teams, with in-state bragging rights on the line from two prestigious schools. 1. WILLIAM and MARY (14)- It could go either way, but I will stick with The Tribe. 2. VIRGINIA (15)- Big ACC win, should qualify easily, win or lose. 3. NC STATE- Still 3rd despite redshirts, but they don't look great for an at-large. 4. NORFOLK STATE- Once ranked in the Grote Poll, I'd love to see these guys in Terre Haute, they could wind up 3rd they really could. 5. LIBERTY- They should start with 1 point, although it won't be a walkover for MacDougal. This is a team on the rise a bit. Not to be judgemental, but I'm not sure that I pull for biblebangers any more than travel agents. Actually, I'm pretty sure that I don't. Worse yet would be evangelical travel agents, or biblebanger mercenary foreign dudes. Yuck. They actually beat some teams like ASU, Michigan State and Columbia that could wind up on the bubble, but lost to too many to give them a real good shot at an at-large should they wind up 3rd here. 6. LOUISVILLE- Look out, Ron Mann is there and they are on the rise. Corey Thorne is having a good frosh season, and Kenyan Korir gives them a good 1-2. 7. JMU 8. WAKE FOREST 9. UNC-CHARLOTTE 10. DUKE INDIVIDUAL RACE- This really should be MacDougal's, he's a man on a mission, but not a Mormon one. There are some Kenyans who could push him, most notably the Korir from Eastern Kentucky. The Norfuckers could have a guy or two in the mix, as well. Clemson's Clark and the aforementioned duo from L'ville also figure to be good prospects for individual spots. SOUTH Once the laughing stock of cross-country regions, now just the laughing stock geographically for everything else that is funny, but not really funny if you think about it or are overly sensitive, such as poor education, racism, hurricane's, floods, and general all-around assbackwardness. Now this is a region that could send 4 teams to Terre Haute, and 3 with legitimate top 10 aspirations. 1. FLORIDA (11)- Only 3rd at the SEC race, but I like the Gators to beat Bama here. Pigg has done a nice job with this program, the right way. 2. ALABAMA (10)- Why field a team of 5 foreigners who likely speak little English when you can choose from so many kids with a poor educational background from in-state? 3. *FLORIDA STATE (19)- A pretty good squad again, done in by the Wahoos at ACC's, but a sure thing at-large at worst. 4. *TENNESSEE (30)- Quietly a good year for the Vols. A scant 6 points behind Florida at the conference meet, and a solid showing all season, they deserve an at-large and should get one. 5. AUBURN 6. GEORGIA 7. LSU 8. MISSISSIPPI STATE 9. MISSISSIPPI- I could say Ole Miss, but like spelling Mississippi. 10. VANDERBILT- Is Spivey still the coach? INDIVIDUAL RACE- This has a Kenyan win written all over it likely Bama's Maiyo. Guys on teams going to Terre Haute will dominate the top 10, UGa's Burrell should make it, as should the guys from South Alabama, who I've heard are even more creative with the eligibility than the guys from Bama. This is all rumor and I have no real knowledge or proof, nor do I care to, so this may actually be slanderous. So it goes. SOUTH CENTRAL Arkansas and Texas will try not to trip over themselves. Dick Harter will try to avoid excess stimulation and premature excitement the 2nd 10k of the 9 days is what will define the season of these guys. It will be a challenge to come up with a top 10 teams here. 1. ARKANSAS (1)- Will they run their big guns? Will they run real hard? Who cares, see you next Monday, they will win. 2. TEXAS (6)- They will not lose to Colorado this week. 3. RICE 4. TEXAS A&M 5. TEXAS PAN AMERICAN 6. TCU 7. TC Who 8. BAYLOR 9. WEST 10. CHAMBERLAIN INDIVIDUAL RACE- Arkansas and Texas could dominate, but probably will not. That Marcel Hemorrhoid guy from Rice will make it. GREAT LAKES This is where everything can get very complicated in the at-large scene. There has been a lot of racing from teams like Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana in and out of the region and they have beaten and been beaten by many teams. EMU can add to the complexity as they did not go to Pre-Nats, rather opting for a win at Penn State, if they are 3rd or 4th they could screw up the process by not getting an at-large quickly and cost the region one or two bids. The top 2 are nearly set in proverbial stone. 1. WISCONSIN (2)- They likely will not score less than 16 points. Withrow is still my pick for NCAA Champion. 2. NOTRE DAME (5)- If Wisco gets cute and holds back, Notre Dame could score a win. They don't need to, as they can load up and take a crack at a trophy in Terre Haute. 3. *MICHIGAN- Just a hunch they will run well this week. 4. *OHIO STATE (20)- Nice 2nd at Big 10's, they could well be 3rd here, but so could a few other teams. The Buckeyes will be early on the at-large list. 5. *INDIANA (24)- My pick for 2nd at Big 10's that did them no good. 6. *EASTERN MICHIGAN (27)- A young, somewhat mysterious team. No more Boaz which by the way, how the hell did he run what he ran this year? 7. INDIANA STATE 8. MICHIGAN STATE 9. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10. MIAMI (OHIO) INDIVIDUAL RACE- Totally dominated by qualifying teams, depending on how many at-larges will David Rae of Purdue by one of the first individuals him or the Butler guys. MIDWEST Schools from Big 12 and Big 10 with some overlap collide here, and they appear pretty close among the top 4, who all should get into NCAA's. 1. KANSAS (17)- Nice run at Big 12's gives them the nod. 2. MINNESOTA (21)- Only 1 point out of 2nd at Big 10. 3. *IOWA (29)- Could still win. 4. *OKLAHOMA STATE (23) 5. ILLINOIS 6. MISSOURI 7. IOWA STATE 8. KANSAS STATE 9. NEBRASKA 10. NORTHERN IOWA INDIVIDUAL RACE- Chesang wins, team is going either way. MOUNTAIN Will CU be challenged by UTEP or will BYU be challenged by UTEP? My guess is the Mormons more than the Buffs. Pretty big drop-off after those 3, but still likely a region with 4 or maybe 5 teams in Terre Haute. 1. COLORADO (3)- Business as usual here. How much better will they have gotten by November 19th? Good enough to win? Its been done before. 2. UTEP (8)- Is 5th man Munoz American? If so, what the hell are they thinking down there? 3. *BYU (9)- Similar to my dilemma with Liberty, do I root for Mormons over mercenaries? Religion or relocation? Again, I have to thumb my nose at religion, I suppose, even though Mormons are pretty nice and never did anything mean to me, albeit they were a bit weird with those books and magazines when I was a kid. 4. *AIR FORCE (25) 5. NAU 6. COLORADO STATE 7. TEXAS TECH 8. UTAH STATE 9. MONTANA 10. NEW MEXICO INDIVIDUAL RACE- UTEP's Mutai will be tough to beat, CU's Schoolmeester would be better off doing it in Terre Haute than at regionals. WEST The best region in the land? Cal could really f-up the deal for many teams if they run as they did when 3rd at PAC-10's. 1. STANFURD (4)- I will root for Stanfurd to beat the travel agents even though I despise Stanfurd, since I have no knowledge of them being biblebangers. Its still close, if for no other reason than Mike Mussina being an alum. 2. ARIZONA (7)- Wouldn't it be funny if they lost at home and won on The Farm? Not really. 3. *PORTLAND (13)- The Pilots should be ready to run after a month betwixt Pre-Nats and regionals. 10k should suit them well, I hope they are closer to 2nd than 4th, perhaps with Zona's 5th man troubles this could be the case. 4. *WASHINGTON (26)- Counting on the Dawgs rallying after the PAC-10 snafu with Cal. Mostly I am hoping to see them at the meet because their coach is pretty cool. 5. CAL POLY- Out of at-larges by their turn? 6. CAL- If they are 4th or worse yet 3rd other Westerners are screwed. The guys from Berkeley are good and young, but need to find their way to Pre-Nats or somewhere next year. 7. OREGON- No Gaylord, no difference, they probably were not going to make it this year anyway. Next year? Look out. 8. UCLA 9. WASHINGTON STATE 10. UCSB INDIVIDUAL RACE- Cheseret should win for one more week, than Withrow and others will bend him over. The individual qualifiers will be largely dependant on the at-large situation, which is overstating the obvious. That covers it 9 regions, 31 teams. 11 days until NCAA's. Clear a path. Just to refresh, the 13 at-large by my highly random process are in no particular order: Princeton, Florida State, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, EMU, Iowa, Oklahoma State, BYU, Air Force, Portland, and Washington. There could be more from some regions like the Mountain or West, or less from the West and Great Lakes. Either way Clear a Path.
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Cross Country Spikes 10% off Injured?
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