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Day 1 Preview of 2005 USA Track and Field Nationals: Hot Women's 5000m Final, Men's 10k Final
LetsRun.com
June 23, 2005
*Thursday start lists here

The 2005 USATF Nationals get underway on Thursday in Carson, California (Los Angeles). While the national media attention is focused on the young talented sprinters in the meet, there are two distance track finals on Thursday night, the women's 5000m and the men's 10,000m. While the men's 10,000m lacks some of the star power of recent years, the women's 5,000m, which has become the most competitive distance event on the women's side during the last two years, features some exciting match ups.

Last year at the Olympic Trials, the 5000m was a race between 4 women (Shayne Culpepper (1st), Marla Runyan (2nd), Shalane Flanagan (3rd), and Amy Rudolph (4th)) for 3 Olympic spots. This year the 5000m as well looks to be a battle between 4 women for 3 spots, with Lauren Fleshman, formerly of Stanford, replacing Marla Runyan (who is pregnant), as the 4th contender. All four of the women have run under 15:10 in the last 2 years.

Shayne Culpepper, with her blazing finishing speed, has to be considered the favorite. Except for the Prefontaine Classic, where she fell in the 1500m, she is undefeated in her 2005 outdoor campaign, and she won the Olympic Trials 5000m last year (15:07.41), running an incredible last 30 meters to pass Marla Runyan right before the line. Her finishing speed is indeed ruthless, as evidenced by her bronze medal at last year's World Indoor 3000m in a slow tactical race (9:12.15). Her 2005 campaign does not include any 5000m races, but the other girls in the field have not shown themselves to have a better kick than Culpepper or to have better endurance.

Amy Rudolph was the odd woman out in 2004, finishing 4th in the 5k and missing out on making her 3rd Olympic team. She has rebounded in 2005 by having a tremendous year. She made her 10,000 debut with a stunning 31:18.96, becoming the 2nd fastest American ever. The question is just how fast is she over the shorter distances this year? Rudolph's pr in the 5,000m dates to 1996, when in her first year out of college she ran a 14:56 5k (and she ran a blazing 8:39 for 3k in 2000). She has only run one track race this year since her 10,000m, a not so great 8:58 3000m rust buster 2 weeks ago at the Reebok Grand Prix. Despite her 10,000m time this year, she has said her goal is to run the 5,000m at the World Championships.  Whether she is sharp enough to win the tough 5,000m is another question.

Lauren Fleshman, like Rudolph, also missed out on last year's Olympics, missing last year's Olympic Trials with an injury, but is having a great 2005. She was the top US finisher at the World Cross Country 4k championships (11th place ahead of Culpepper in 21st), and has run 15:15.63 for 5k this year, the top time this year in the field (Rudolph, Culpepper and Flanagan have not run a 5000m outdoors this year). She has run quite a few 1500m this year trying to work on her speed, but unless somehow she can outrun the field, she has not shown herself to have the kick to win this race, but is a strong contender for one of the 3 spots for the World Championships.

Shalane Flanagan made the Olympic Team last year while still in school at North Carolina, showing poise beyond her years, leading most of the race before getting outkicked at the end. She has been hampered by slight injuries this year during the winter and spring.  She did run 8:54 for 3000m to get fifth at the Reebok Grand Prix (ahead of Rudolph who ran 8:58) 2 weeks ago, but that is only her second track race of the year (she also ran the 1500m at the Pre Classic and was involved in the big fall).

With 4 women in the field who have run under 15:10 in the last 2 years, the rest of the field appears to be outclassed. Sara Gorton, who ran 15:24 two years ago and won the NCAA 5000m title that year as well, is in good form as shown by her recent win in the 10k at NCAAs a few weeks ago, but she only started training this spring after an injury and thus is probably at least a few weeks away from improving significantly on her 2003 form where she could conceivably try and crack the ranks of the formidable four.

 

Predictions: 1) Culpepper  then flip a coin: 2) Fleshman 3) Rudolph 4) Flanagan 5) Tollefson

Editor's Note: Carrie Tollefson an Olympian at 1500m in 2004, and who ran 15:04 last year for 5k is also in the race. She has run 15:45 for a 5k win this year and 4:11 for 1500 at Prefontaine.

Men's 10,000m
The men's 10,000m has been the strongest long distance event on the men's side since 2000. The race has lost a little of its luster this year. The big gun is back, American record holder Meb Keflezighi, who won this race in 2000, 2002, and 2004. Meb's focus however has shifted to the marathon where he won the silver medal at last year's Olympics. This race represents his first track race of 2005 and only his second race of 2005. (He ran the Healthy Kidney 10,000m in Central Park in 28:52.)  Abdi Abdirahman, who won in 2001 and has the top time this year (27:33.50) and was 10th in the 2000 Olympics, is in the field as well. He gets the favorite nod in our book because he has been racing on the track and run 13:28 for 5k this year.  Missing from the field are Alan Culpepper (1999 and 2003 champ, top 3 every year from 1999-2003, he is now focusing on the marathon), Dan Browne (1998 champ, 2003 World Championship team, 2004 Olympian, coming off injury), and 2000 Olympian Dathan Ritzenhein, the man many consider to be the future for the US in this event (injured himself playing soccer last week). NCAA 5k runner-up, Ian Dobson who has run under 28 minutes this year, has elected to skip this event because of the difficulty in finding 10,000m races in Europe where it is possible to try and run under the World Championship qualifying time (27:49). Chris Graff, 28:03 this year, is running well again, and outclasses the rest of the field.

Predictions: 1) Abdi (he's at least race sharp)  2) Meb   3) Graff

Also on Thursday in the distance events are the first rounds of  the 800 and 1500s and the men's steeplechase prelims.

*Thursday start lists here

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